Round 22 Preview — 2026 AFL SeasonAFL Analytics

Geelong v Essendon

Geelong 11–0 at GMHBA. Essendon 0–9 away. 94.2% confidence, +57.4 margin. Strong tip: Geelong by 50.

SavvyPlays · 6 Aug 2026 · GMHBA Stadium, Geelong · Saturday 8 August · 4:35PM AEST

The highest confidence match of Round 22. Geelong are 11–0 at GMHBA Stadium. Essendon are 0–9 away. Unanimous at 94.2% confidence with a +57.4 margin. This is as close to a guaranteed result as the AFL offers.

SavvyPlays Tip — Strong

01Geelong by 50

The most one-sided match of the round by every measure. Geelong’s 11–0 home record vs Essendon’s 0–9 away record. H2H Geelong 4–1. The models predict +57.4 at 94.2% confidence. We’re at +50, slightly below the model average, but R14 taught us to back the blowouts.

11–0

Geelong Home

0–9

Essendon Away

Geelong 4–1

H2H Last 5

31/31 Geelong

Squiggle

94.2%

Confidence

+57.4

Avg Margin

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus sourced directly from the Squiggle API (31 models). Kickoff times verified from footyalmanac.com.au. All figures verified as of 6 August 2026.