Round 22 Preview — 2026 AFL SeasonAFL Analytics

St Kilda v Carlton

Dead split: Squiggle 16–15 Saints. But Carlton 4–1 in H2H. Finals implications. Lean tip: Carlton by 4.

SavvyPlays · 6 Aug 2026 · Marvel Stadium · Sunday 9 August · 7:20PM AEST

The Squiggle consensus is the closest split of the round: St Kilda 16–15. The models marginally favour the Saints at home, but Carlton’s 4–1 H2H dominance is too strong to ignore. We go against the slight model lean and back the H2H. This is the ultimate coin flip with finals implications.

SavvyPlays Tip — Lean

01Carlton by 4

The Squiggle split (16–15, +3.9 St Kilda, 54.8%) says this is a coin flip. We’re going against the marginal model lean because Carlton’s H2H record (4–1, wins by 71, 65, 39, 5) is one of the most dominant in the AFL.

St Kilda at home (5–4) and Carlton’s recent form (lost 2 of 3) create genuine uncertainty. But the H2H tips it. Barely. Huge wildcard implications.

10–10

St Kilda Season

9–11

Carlton Season

Carlton 4–1

H2H Last 5

16–15 Saints

Squiggle Split

54.8%

Confidence

5–4

St Kilda Home

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus sourced directly from the Squiggle API (31 models). Kickoff times verified from footyalmanac.com.au. All figures verified as of 6 August 2026.