Round 23 Preview — 2026 AFL SeasonAFL Analytics

Fremantle v Adelaide

1st v 3rd. Fremantle 10–0 at Optus. Adelaide 16–6 but H2H 4–1. Squiggle 27/28 Freo. Strong tip: Fremantle by 20.

SavvyPlays · 13 Aug 2026 · Optus Stadium, Perth · Friday 14 August · 8:10PM AEST

First v third. Fremantle are 19–3 and 10–0 at Optus Stadium. Adelaide are 16–6 and on a massive run of form. The H2H favours Adelaide 4–1 — including a win at Fremantle earlier this season. But 27 of 28 models tip Fremantle at 75.1% confidence. The Optus fortress is the deciding factor.

SavvyPlays Tip — Strong

01Fremantle by 20

Adelaide’s 4–1 H2H record against Fremantle is the counterargument. They won at Adelaide in R4 this season by 2 points and have historically had Fremantle’s measure. But Optus Stadium is a different proposition — Fremantle are a perfect 10–0 at home.

The models overwhelmingly back Fremantle (27–1, +23.7, 75.1%). Adelaide’s quality (16–6, 6–3 away) keeps us below the model margin. We’re at +20 rather than +24.

19–3

Fremantle Season

16–6

Adelaide Season

10–0

Fremantle Home

6–3

Adelaide Away

Adelaide 4–1

H2H Last 5

27/28 Freo, 75.1%

Squiggle

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus sourced directly from the Squiggle API (28 models). Kickoff times verified from austadiums.com and footyalmanac.com.au. All figures verified as of 13 August 2026.