Brisbane Lions v Adelaide
Brisbane (16–7) lost QF by 53 but back at the Gabba. Adelaide (16–8) won EF. Unanimous 27/27. Strong tip: Brisbane by 15.
SavvyPlays · 10 Sep 2026 · Gabba, Brisbane · Saturday 12 September · 7:35PM AEST
Brisbane were dismantled by Sydney by 53 in the Qualifying Final. Now they’re back at the Gabba in a must-win Semi Final against Adelaide, who beat the Bulldogs by 22 in their Elimination Final. The defending premiers are wounded but the models are unanimous: all 27 tip Brisbane at 68.8% confidence. Brisbane’s Gabba record (8–2) and premiership pedigree get the nod.
SavvyPlays Tip — Strong
01Brisbane Lions by 15
Brisbane’s 53-point QF loss to Sydney was brutal, but the defending premiers have been here before. In 2024 they lost both qualifying and semi finals before winning the Grand Final. This group knows how to respond under pressure. At the Gabba (8–2) they’re a completely different team to the one that lost at the SCG.
Adelaide had a remarkable season — a 10-game winning streak in the middle of the year catapulted them into the top six. They beat the Bulldogs by 22 in their EF. But their away record (6–5) is their vulnerability, and the Gabba under lights for a Semi Final is the toughest away assignment in September.
The H2H favours Brisbane: they beat Adelaide by 52 in R7 this season and lead 3–1 with one draw in the last five meetings. The models are unanimous: 27/27 at 68.8% with +17.5. We’re at +15.
The winner travels to Hawthorn for a Preliminary Final. Adelaide would need to win three consecutive away finals to reach the Grand Final — a monumental task.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from AFL Tables with exact team ID matching. Model consensus sourced directly from the Squiggle API (27 models). Fixture and times verified from afl.com.au. All figures verified as of 10 September 2026.
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