BMW + Nexo Recap
Bellerive Country Club + Trump International · August 20–23, 2026
Wyndham Clark won the BMW Championship at -17 with +12.4 SG — two wins in three weeks for the US Open champion. Clark was on the model's radar (Watchlist, +0.2pp) but not staked. Jamieson won the Nexo from the Watchlist too. Both staked cards missed: BMW -3.0u, Nexo -1.5u. Week -4.5u. New format running P/L: +22.3u.
BMW Championship — Clark Wins Again, Our Plays Miss
| # | Player | Odds | Edge | Finish | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brennan, Michael | $71 | WIN 1.0u | T10 | ✗ |
| 2 | Kim, Tom | $63 | WIN 1.0u | T28 | ✗ |
| 3 | MacIntyre, Robert | $91 | E/W 0.5u | T7 | ✗ |
| 4 | Smalley, Alex | $100 | E/W 0.5u | T16 | ✗ |
Wyndham Clark won at -17 with +12.4 SG — the US Open champion now has two wins in three weeks. Clark was on the Watchlist (+0.2pp) but not staked; in a 50-player elite field the market was efficient on him at $38. Brennan T10 and MacIntyre T7 — the 6-10 pattern continues. Both would collect on Top 10 markets but miss our stated 5-place E/W terms. BMW P/L: -3.0 units.
Nexo Championship — Jamieson Wins from the Watchlist
| # | Player | Odds | Edge | Finish | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dantorp, Jens | $151 | E/W 0.5u | T16 | ✗ |
| 2 | Buchanan, Jack | $501 | E/W 0.5u | CUT | ✗ |
| 3 | Nemecz, Lukas | $501 | E/W 0.5u | T46 | ✗ |
Jamieson won from the Watchlist. Jordan finished 2nd (also Watchlist). Our staked plays missed across the board. Nexo P/L: -1.5 units.
Season P/L Tracker — New Format, Five Weeks
Still solidly positive at +22.3u despite four losing weeks out of five. The Winther $126 win carries the season. The 6-10 near-miss pattern (Gerard T8, Matsuyama T7, MacIntyre T7, Brennan T10) is a genuine structural question for the off-season.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
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Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 26 Aug
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice