Amgen Irish Open
Trump International Golf Links · September 10–13, 2026
The Amgen Irish Open at Trump International Golf Links, Co. Clare — a standard Euro card. No course profile, equal weights, 138-player full field. No Best Bet this week: no pick exceeds the +1.5pp threshold, so all three staked plays are each-way at standard terms. Three deep longshots — Jeff Winther at $404, John Catlin at $576 and JC Ritchie at $375 — the deepest prices on the staked card this season. Total outlay: 1.5 units.
This Week's Plays — The Staked Card, 1.5 Units
✅ Winther, Jeff
+1.3pp win edge at $404. Won the Danish Golf Championship four weeks ago at $126. 10.9% T10 probability and +7.2pp T10 edge. The model keeps finding him at big prices — and he keeps delivering.
✅ Catlin, John
+1.2pp win edge at $576. Largest T10 edge on the card at +9.2pp. 10.8% T10 probability vs market ~1.6%. A deep longshot where the model sees a substantial gap between fair price and market price.
✅ Ritchie, JC
+1.1pp win edge at $375. Season-long recurring Euro pick. 11.2% T10 probability and +6.5pp T10 edge. Consistent model selection across DP World Tour events.
Three deep longshots. All three staked plays are above $375 this week — the deepest prices on the staked card this season. If one places top 5, the 1/5 odds return at these prices is substantial. Winther won at $126 from this exact tier four weeks ago. No course profile — equal weights. Euro edge cap applied. No Best Bet — no pick exceeds the +1.5pp threshold. All plays each-way at 1/5 odds, 5 places. Total outlay: 1.5 units.
👀 Watchlist — Tracked, Not Staked
| Player | Price | Edge | T10 Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dantorp, Jens | $576 | +0.9pp | +6.3pp | Watchlist |
| Puig, David | $81 | +0.9pp | +2.9pp | Watchlist |
| Koepka, Brooks | $61 | +0.8pp | +1.6pp | Watchlist |
| Clements, Todd | $156 | +0.8pp | +2.1pp | Watchlist |
| Steinlechner, Maximilian | $301 | +0.7pp | +4.6pp | Watchlist |
| Schmidt, Ben | $501 | +0.7pp | +5.5pp | Watchlist |
| Schneider, Marcel | $626 | +0.6pp | +6.1pp | Watchlist |
| Vaillant, Tom | $176 | +0.6pp | +2.5pp | Watchlist |
| De Leo, Gregorio | $362 | +0.5pp | +4.2pp | Watchlist |
| Luiten, Joost | $306 | +0.5pp | +5.2pp | Watchlist |
The rest of the model's positive-edge output. Shown for accountability and for punters who want depth — but the season data says these don't clear the staking bar at standard terms.
How It's Built
10,000 simulations. 19,030 rounds. No course profile — equal weights. 136/138 players with history. Euro edge cap applied. Six outright winners this season. Casey 2nd at $105 last week. Winther won the Danish at $126. New format P/L: +21.05u through seven weeks.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
SavvyPlays · Built different. Bet smarter. · Not financial advice. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call GambleAware on 1800 858 858.
SavvyPlays — Game Preview Card
Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 09 Sept
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice