Danish Golf Championship
Denmark · August 13–16, 2026
A standard Euro card in Denmark — no course profile, equal weights, 144-player full field. No Best Bet this week: no pick exceeds the +1.5pp threshold, so all three staked plays are each-way at standard terms. Total outlay: 1.5 units.
This Week's Plays — The Staked Card, 1.5 Units
✅ Dantorp, Jens
+1.3pp win edge at $301. Recurring Euro value pick with +7.0pp T10 edge. 11.0% T10 probability vs market 4.0%.
✅ Nemecz, Lukas
+1.2pp win edge at $351. 10.4% T10 probability and +8.5pp T10 edge — the largest on the Euro card.
✅ Winther, Jeff
+1.1pp win edge. Season-long recurring pick with T6 finishes at the Soudal Open and Open d'Italia. 12.0% T10 probability.
Standard Euro card. No course profile — equal weights. Recurring value names from the DP World Tour model. Euro edge cap applied. No Best Bet — no pick exceeds the +1.5pp threshold. All plays each-way at 1/5 odds, 5 places. Total outlay: 1.5 units.
👀 Watchlist — Tracked, Not Staked
| Player | Price | Edge | T10 Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buchanan, Jack | $751 | +1.1pp | +7.0pp | Watchlist |
| Molinari, Edoardo | $501 | +0.9pp | +9.2pp | Watchlist |
| Axelsen, John | $1,001 | +0.8pp | +6.6pp | Watchlist |
| Schmidt, Ben | $151 | +0.7pp | +2.3pp | Watchlist |
| Watson, Bubba | $91 | +0.7pp | +2.1pp | Watchlist |
| Hebert, Benjamin | $501 | +0.7pp | +5.8pp | Watchlist |
| Jackson, Palmer | $2,501 | +0.7pp | +5.8pp | Watchlist |
| Mory, Felix | $201 | +0.7pp | +3.8pp | Watchlist |
| Girrbach, Joel | $176 | +0.6pp | +4.7pp | Watchlist |
| Stenson, Henrik | $151 | +0.6pp | +4.5pp | Watchlist |
The rest of the model's positive-edge output. Shown for accountability and for punters who want depth — but the season data says these don't clear the staking bar at standard terms.
How It's Built
10,000 simulations. 16,676 rounds. No course profile — equal weights. 142/144 players with history. Euro edge cap applied. Five outright winners this season. Two major champions. New format P/L: -7.0u through three weeks.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
SavvyPlays · Built different. Bet smarter. · Not financial advice. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call GambleAware on 1800 858 858.
SavvyPlays — Game Preview Card
Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 13 Aug
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice