Alfred Dunhill Links Championship
Old Course St Andrews, Carnoustie, Kingsbarns · October 1–4, 2026
The Alfred Dunhill Links Championship, DP World Tour, 168 players across the Old Course at St Andrews, Carnoustie and Kingsbarns. No Best Bet this week: Nick Voke carries a Best Bet-strength edge, but at $501 the stake stays at E/W terms. Three E/W plays: Voke at $501, Victor Perez at $54 and Jens Dantorp at $401. Total outlay: 1.5 units.
This Week's Plays — The Staked Card, 1.5 Units
✅ Voke, Nick
+1.6pp win edge is Best Bet strength on the numbers, but at $501 we hold the stake at a standard E/W half-unit rather than stepping up. 14.1% T10 probability and a +11.4pp T10 edge, the largest on the card. T16 at the Hero Indian Open with +10.4 SG. A top-five finish alone returns 25 units.
✅ Perez, Victor
+1.4pp win edge at $54, the strongest edge on the card at a workable price. 18.5% T10 probability, second in the field behind Hatton. T2 at the Soudal Open and T9 at both the Scottish Open and the BMW International Open this season.
✅ Dantorp, Jens
+1.0pp win edge at $401 with a +4.8pp T10 edge. T9 at the Irish Open in September from our Watchlist (+8.5 SG), and T25 in this event in 2024. Three exposed links courses suit a player whose best recent week came on an exposed Irish links.
E/W (1/5 odds, 5 places) for all three plays. No Best Bet at the Dunhill: Voke's +1.6pp clears the Best Bet threshold on edge, but at $501 the variance is too high to step up the stake; the E/W half-unit already carries the upside. Tyrrell Hatton is our model's most likely winner at 5.7%, but at $16 there is no edge. Three-course rotation, equal weights, no course profile. Total outlay: 1.5 units.
👀 Watchlist — Tracked, Not Staked
| Player | Price | Edge | T10 Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ritchie, JC | $351 | +1.0pp | +6.4pp | Watchlist |
| Buchanan, Jack | $1,501 | +1.0pp | +7.0pp | Watchlist |
| Schmidt, Ben | $501 | +0.9pp | +5.0pp | Watchlist |
| Porter, Charles | $2,251 | +0.9pp | +5.9pp | Watchlist |
| Burke, Christiaan | $1,001 | +0.8pp | +6.3pp | Watchlist |
| Howell III, Charles | $101 | +0.8pp | -0.4pp | Watchlist |
| Van Tonder, Daniel | $401 | +0.7pp | +3.4pp | Watchlist |
| Jarvis, Casey | $81 | +0.7pp | -0.6pp | Watchlist |
| Girrbach, Joel | $223 | +0.7pp | +2.3pp | Watchlist |
| Puig, David | $51 | +0.7pp | +1.5pp | Watchlist |
The rest of the model's positive-edge output. Shown for accountability and for punters who want depth, but the season data says these don't clear the staking bar at standard terms.
How It's Built
10,000 simulations. 19,853 rounds. 168-player DP World Tour field across the Old Course at St Andrews plus Carnoustie and Kingsbarns. Multi-course rotation: no course profile, equal weights. Six outright winners this season. Two major champions. Casey 2nd at $105. New format P/L: +17.05u through nine weeks.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
SavvyPlays · Built different. Bet smarter. · Not financial advice. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call GambleAware on 1800 858 858.
SavvyPlays — Game Preview Card
Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 30 Sept
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice