Amgen Irish Open Recap
Trump International Golf Links · September 10–13, 2026
Shane Lowry won the Irish Open at -23 with a staggering +23.5 SG, the largest SG performance we have recorded this season. Lowry was on the consensus-adjusted list but not the staked card. Our three deep longshots all missed: Winther T23, Catlin missed the cut, Ritchie T60. Week -1.5u. New format running P/L: +19.55u through eight weeks.
Lowry Dominates at -23. Staked Plays Miss.
| # | Player | Odds | Edge | Finish | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Winther, Jeff | $404 | E/W 0.5u | T23 | ✗ |
| 2 | Catlin, John | $576 | E/W 0.5u | CUT | ✗ |
| 3 | Ritchie, JC | $375 | E/W 0.5u | T60 | ✗ |
Shane Lowry won the Irish Open at -23 with a staggering +23.5 SG, the largest SG performance we have recorded this season. Lowry was on the consensus-adjusted list but not the staked card. Our three deep longshots all missed — Winther T23 at $404, Catlin missed the cut at $576, Ritchie T60 at $375. -0.5u each. Week P/L: -1.5 units. Watchlist hits: Dantorp T9 ($576, +0.9pp) — another near-miss just outside 5-place terms. De Leo T5 ($362) from the Watchlist would have been a significant E/W payout.
Season P/L Tracker — New Format, Eight Weeks
Two profitable weeks in eight. A -1.5u week on three deep longshots is the expected cost of the E/W framework at these prices — one place finish covers several misses.
Season Status
Six outright winners: Snedeker $351, Rai $281, Sterne $501, Clark $60, Fitzpatrick $17, Winther $126. Two major champions. Casey 2nd at $105. New format P/L: +19.55u through eight weeks.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
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Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 17 Sept
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice