Nexo Championship
· August 20–23, 2026
A standard Euro card — no course profile, equal weights, 138-player full field. No Best Bet this week: no pick exceeds the +1.5pp threshold, so all three staked plays are each-way at standard terms. Fresh off Winther's $126 win at the Danish, the Euro model rolls forward. Total outlay: 1.5 units.
This Week's Plays — The Staked Card, 1.5 Units
✅ Dantorp, Jens
+1.3pp win edge at $151. Season-long Euro recurring pick with 13.3% T10 probability and +6.0pp T10 edge. Consistent model selection.
✅ Buchanan, Jack
+1.2pp win edge at $501. Huge longshot price with 9.8% T10 probability and +7.1pp T10 edge. The profile that produces outsized each-way returns.
✅ Nemecz, Lukas
+1.2pp win edge at $501. 11.2% T10 probability and +9.0pp T10 edge — the largest T10 edge on the Euro card. Recurring model pick.
Standard Euro card. No course profile — equal weights. Recurring value names from the DP World Tour model. Euro edge cap applied. No Best Bet — no pick exceeds the +1.5pp threshold. All plays each-way at 1/5 odds, 5 places. Total outlay: 1.5 units.
👀 Watchlist — Tracked, Not Staked
| Player | Price | Edge | T10 Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigues, Daniel | $180 | +1.0pp | +4.1pp | Watchlist |
| Kaewkanjana, Sadom | $201 | +0.9pp | +2.9pp | Watchlist |
| Lagergren, Joakim | $84 | +0.9pp | +3.2pp | Watchlist |
| Girrbach, Joel | $111 | +0.9pp | +4.1pp | Watchlist |
| Steinlechner, Maximilian | $106 | +0.9pp | +3.5pp | Watchlist |
| Mjaaseth, Michael | $1,051 | +0.9pp | +5.4pp | Watchlist |
| Hebert, Benjamin | $401 | +0.7pp | +6.5pp | Watchlist |
| Hollick, Michael | $151 | +0.7pp | +1.8pp | Watchlist |
| Mory, Felix | $156 | +0.7pp | +3.3pp | Watchlist |
| Virto, Borja | $1,001 | +0.7pp | +6.6pp | Watchlist |
The rest of the model's positive-edge output. Shown for accountability and for punters who want depth — but the season data says these don't clear the staking bar at standard terms.
How It's Built
10,000 simulations. 17,400 rounds. No course profile — equal weights. 138-player field. Euro edge cap applied. Six outright winners this season. Winther $126 last week. New format P/L: +26.8u through four weeks.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
SavvyPlays · Built different. Bet smarter. · Not financial advice. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call GambleAware on 1800 858 858.
SavvyPlays — Game Preview Card
Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 19 Aug
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice