FedEx St. Jude + Danish Recap
TPC Southwind + Great Northern · August 13–16, 2026
Jeff Winther won the Danish Golf Championship at -15 — our staked E/W play at $126, the new format's first winner. Six outright winners this season. The Danish card returned +35.3 units; the FedEx card missed across the board (-2.5u). Combined week: +33.8 units. New format running P/L: +26.8u.
🏆 The Headline — Winther Wins the Danish at $126
| # | Player | Odds | Edge | Finish | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Winther, Jeff | $126 | E/W 0.5u | WON | ✓ |
| 2 | Dantorp, Jens | $301 | E/W 0.5u | T39 | ✗ |
| 3 | Nemecz, Lukas | $351 | E/W 0.5u | 80th | ✗ |
Jeff Winther won at -15 — a staked play, not a Watchlist hit. He has been on the Euro value list all season: T6 at the Soudal Open, T6 at the Open d'Italia, and now the winner at $126. The play returned +36.3 units (win + place at 1/5 odds); Danish card P/L: +35.3 units.
FedEx St. Jude — Scheffler Dominates, Card Misses
| # | Player | Odds | Edge | Finish | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brennan, Michael | $66 | WIN 1.0u | T42 | ✗ |
| 2 | Fox, Ryan | $172 | E/W 0.5u | T58 | ✗ |
| 3 | Matsuyama, Hideki | $29 | E/W 0.5u | T7 | ✗ |
| 4 | Kim, Michael | $176 | E/W 0.5u | T55 | ✗ |
Scheffler won at -17 with +16.4 SG — dominant as always. Kim Si Woo finished 2nd, Matsuyama T7. Brennan's hot streak ended (T42, -1.6 SG after winning the Wyndham). Matsuyama at T7 narrowly misses 5-place terms again. The elite 69-player field compressed the edges — Scheffler was our #1 skill estimate but carried no market edge at $6.50. FedEx P/L: -2.5 units.
Season P/L Tracker — New Format, Four Weeks
One winner erases three losing weeks. This is the nature of longshot-heavy E/W betting: long droughts punctuated by outsized wins. Patience and process.
Season Status
Six outright winners: Snedeker $351, Rai $281, Sterne $501, Clark $60, Fitzpatrick $17, Winther $126. Two major champions. New format P/L: +26.8u through four weeks.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
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Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 19 Aug
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice