3M Open
TPC Twin Cities · July 23–26, 2026
TPC Twin Cities is an approach course. 2,731 historical rounds — one of our deepest course profiles — say approach play explains 39% of scoring variance, the highest weighting since Shinnecock Hills. The player with the best approach number among all 144 in the field is Kim Tom, and he arrives off a Scottish Open win two weeks ago.
TPC Twin Cities
Arnold Palmer design, par 71, 7,431 yards. A course that rewards precision iron play into well-protected greens. 2,731 historical rounds in our database with 69 players carrying 8+ rounds of course history — one of our deepest course profiles. Approach-dominant at 39%; iron play into greens is what separates contenders here.
Season Context
Back-to-Back Best Bet T10s Heading In
Kim Si Woo T9 (Scottish Open) · T6 (The Open) · Four outright winners this season
Kim Si Woo delivered back-to-back T10s at the Scottish Open (T9) and The Open (T6) as our Best Bet. Four outright winners this season: Snedeker $351, Rai $281, Sterne $501, Clark $60. Two major champions. Fifteen events with T10 hits out of sixteen reviewed.
The Setup — An Approach Course, Deeply Profiled
2,731 historical rounds at TPC Twin Cities make this one of our deepest course profiles. Approach play explains 39% of scoring variance — the highest weighting since Shinnecock Hills (40%) — with putting at 33%, off-the-tee 17% and around-green 11%. A weaker field post-Open with many top names skipping, but the deep profile gives the model conviction where it counts: precision iron play.
The Best Bet — Tom Kim
Kim, Tom — $33
🔥 Best Bet (1.0u) · Our win%: 4.8% · Edge: +1.8pp · T10 edge: +3.5pp · Our T10%: 24.6% · AdjSG +1.25 (#2)
The #2 skill estimate in the field behind only Scheffler. Kim Tom's +0.71 SG:APP is the best approach number among all 144 players, and approach accounts for 39% of scoring variance at TPC Twin Cities. He won the Scottish Open two weeks ago at -17.
At $33 the market has him at 2.9% — we have him at 4.8%. The approach-heavy profile and his current form make this a strong Best Bet play.
The Value Board — The Full 15
One Best Bet this week — a weaker field post-Open with many top names skipping. Grillo and Kuchar carry the biggest T10 edges on the card at +10.2pp each. Scheffler dominates the field at +2.10 AdjSG but carries no edge: the market has him at 26.3% against our 14.0%. Suber drops to the Radar tier at $56 — a shorter price than we're used to seeing for him.
Head-to-Head Matchup Value
Homa over James — +30% EV, the card's strongest matchup edge. Our model: Homa 71.0%, offered 1.83 (54.6% implied). EV = 0.710 × 1.83 − 1 = +30%. Kohles over Stevens — +28% EV. Our model: Kohles 67.3%, offered 1.90 (52.6% implied). EV = 0.673 × 1.90 − 1 = +28%. Ghim over Im — +25% EV. Our model: Ghim 70.0%, offered 1.79 (55.9% implied). EV = 0.700 × 1.79 − 1 = +25%.
First Round Leader
Scheffler leads FRL probability at 5.7% (fair $17.5) — AM wave, 07:29. Kim Tom 2.7% (fair $37.0) — PM, 12:55. Homa 1.9% (fair $53.8) — AM, 07:18. Suber 1.8% (fair $54.1) — PM, 13:39. Ghim 1.8% (fair $54.4) — PM, 13:06.
Make / Miss Cut Fades
Campbell (79.2% miss, fair $4.80 vs book $2.60) — FADE. Sargent (78.7% miss, fair $4.70 vs book $2.00) — FADE. Campos (78.4% miss, fair $4.63 vs book $3.40) — FADE.
Who We're Watching — The Caution Zone
20 Players Flagged
Twenty players carry consensus signal that significantly exceeds our model and have been adjusted toward the consensus view. The largest divergences sit at the bottom of the board — Tosti (12.0x), Campos (11.0x), Kizzire (11.0x) and Highsmith (10.3x). At the top, Scheffler is the story: +2.10 AdjSG dominates the field, but at an implied 26.3% against our simulated 14.0% there is no price to take. We hold no position on the favourite.
Value Picks
| Player | Our Win% | Market $ | Edge | T10 Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kim, Tom | 4.8% | 33.00 | +1.80pp | +3.50pp |
| Garnett, Brice | 1.5% | 331.00 | +1.20pp | +7.90pp |
| Grillo, Emiliano | 2.1% | 101.00 | +1.10pp | +10.20pp |
| Eckroat, Austin | 1.5% | 251.00 | +1.10pp | +5.60pp |
| Ghim, Doug | 2.7% | 56.00 | +0.90pp | +5.30pp |
| Vilips, Karl | 1.2% | 260.00 | +0.80pp | +5.30pp |
| Blair, Zac | 1.5% | 151.00 | +0.80pp | +7.30pp |
| Kohles, Ben | 2.0% | 75.00 | +0.70pp | +7.40pp |
| Merritt, Troy | 0.8% | 1001.00 | +0.70pp | +5.60pp |
| Duncan, Tyler | 0.8% | 601.00 | +0.60pp | +6.10pp |
| Olesen, Thorbjorn | 1.1% | 201.00 | +0.60pp | +1.90pp |
| Suber, Jackson | 2.4% | 56.00 | +0.60pp | +1.10pp |
| Kuchar, Matt | 1.0% | 251.00 | +0.60pp | +10.20pp |
| Fishburn, Patrick | 0.9% | 301.00 | +0.50pp | +5.00pp |
| Moore, Taylor | 1.0% | 201.00 | +0.50pp | +2.00pp |
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
SavvyPlays · Built different. Bet smarter. · Not financial advice. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call GambleAware on 1800 858 858.
SavvyPlays — Game Preview Card
Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 23 July
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice