3M Open Recap
TPC Twin Cities · July 23–26, 2026
Jackson Koivun won the 3M Open with Scheffler second and a four-way tie for third. Our card had one top-10 — Ben Kohles at 9th — but the headline plays missed: Tom Kim finished T20 and Grillo's T7 fell six shots shy of the places. Sixteen of seventeen events this season have produced a top-10 hit, but this wasn't a profitable week. And after backtesting all 760+ picks this season, the card itself is changing.
The Week — Koivun Wins, A Quiet One for the Card
| # | Player | Odds | Edge | Finish | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kim, Tom | $33 | 🔥 Best Bet | T20 | ✗ |
| 2 | Grillo, Emiliano | $101 | ✅ Value | T7 | ✗ |
| 3 | Garnett, Brice | $331 | ✅ Value | CUT | ✗ |
| 4 | Eckroat, Austin | $251 | ✅ Value | T57 | ✗ |
| 5 | Kohles, Ben | $75 | 👀 Radar | 9 | ✓ |
Jackson Koivun won the 3M Open with Scheffler second and a four-way tie for third (Phillips, McCarthy, Matsuyama, Harman). Our card had one top-10 — Ben Kohles at 9th — but the headline plays missed: Tom Kim finished T20, Grillo T7 (six shy of T5), Garnett and Eckroat outside the frame.
📢 The Announcement — The Card Is Changing
1. Backing all 15 picks to win loses money
Flat-staking the full card on the win market returned -33% before our outright winners are even counted in — the card was too deep, and depth diluted the edge.
2. The place edge lives in exactly three picks
The top three picks by model edge, backed each-way (1/5 odds, 5 places), have been the season's most profitable strategy by a wide margin. Beyond three picks, returns fall away.
3. Best Bets are win bets
At standard 5-place each-way terms, our Best Bet tier only pays on the win market. The place component doesn't cover its losses.
4. Top 20 markets never pay
Negative at every card depth, every tier. We won't reference them again.
Over the past week we ran a full backtest of every pick we've published this season — more than 760 picks across 29 events — against real bookmaker pricing, including proper dead-heat reductions for ties. The findings above were clear, and some were uncomfortable. So from this week the card changes: up to 4 staked plays, each with an explicit market (WIN or E/W at 1/5 odds, 5 places) and stake, plus a watchlist. Accountability moves from T10 hit counting to P/L in units at stated markets, dead-heat rules applied. The full 15-player model output doesn't disappear — it becomes the Watchlist: tracked for accountability, shown with edges, but only the staked plays are recommendations. Fewer bets, clearer intent, honest accounting.
Season Status
Four outright winners: Snedeker $351, Rai $281, Sterne $501, Clark $60. Two major champions. Sixteen of seventeen events with a T10 hit. From next week, we'll also publish the season P/L in units at the new stated markets — the number that actually matters.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
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Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 29 July
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice