Bank of Utah Championship
Black Desert Resort · October 1–4, 2026
The Bank of Utah Championship at Black Desert Resort, PGA Tour Fall Series, a 120-player field. One Best Bet: Ben Kohles WIN at $66, +4.5pp, the largest edge we have seen on any card this season. Three E/W plays behind him: Seamus Power at $138, David Skinns at $351 and Rico Hoey at $63. Total outlay: 2.5 units.
Black Desert Resort
Tom Weiskopf design, par 71, laid through the lava fields of southern Utah. 787 historical rounds and 19 players with 8+ rounds of course history across two editions. The field has averaged 1.6 under par per round here, and both winners reached -22 or better (McCarty -23 in 2024, Brennan -22 in 2025). Putting-led at 35%, unusual for a PGA Tour venue, with approach at 31%. Off the tee carries more weight than usual at 22%: a birdie-fest where the flat stick separates a bunched leaderboard.
This Week's Plays — The Staked Card, 2.5 Units
🔥 Kohles, Ben
+4.5pp win edge at $66, the largest edge we have seen on any card this season. 28.0% T10 probability with a +15.7pp T10 edge. Our model's top-ranked player in the field. Sat second after 54 holes at the Biltmore before a Sunday 73, and finished T20 here last year.
✅ Power, Seamus
+1.0pp win edge at $138. 13.5% T10 probability and a +5.2pp T10 edge. Fresh off T7 at the Biltmore with +9.9 SG, and T11 at Black Desert in 2024.
✅ Skinns, David
+0.8pp win edge at $351 with a +5.5pp T10 edge. A pure numbers play: he has missed the cut here twice and finished 75th at the Biltmore, but the model rates him a 9.5% T10 chance and a top-five finish alone returns more than 17 units at this price.
✅ Hoey, Rico
+0.8pp win edge at $63. 18.5% T10 probability and a +5.6pp T10 edge. Runner-up at Black Desert last year at -18. Course history and model agree.
WIN play for the Best Bet. E/W (1/5 odds, 5 places) for value plays. One Best Bet at Black Desert: Kohles at +4.5pp is clear of the previous season high (Kim Tom +3.5pp at the Tour Championship). He was one shot off the lead through 54 holes at the Biltmore and the model has not moved off him. Putting-led course profile (35%) with approach at 31%. Total outlay: 2.5 units.
👀 Watchlist — Tracked, Not Staked
| Player | Price | Edge | T10 Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fishburn, Patrick | $129 | +0.8pp | +2.4pp | Watchlist |
| Hodges, Lee | $107 | +0.5pp | +4.7pp | Watchlist |
| Malnati, Peter | $451 | +0.4pp | +3.1pp | Watchlist |
| Thompson, Davis | $47 | +0.3pp | +0.6pp | Watchlist |
| Lingmerth, David | $5,001 | +0.3pp | +3.9pp | Watchlist |
| Parry, John | $101 | +0.3pp | +0.7pp | Watchlist |
The rest of the model's positive-edge output. Shown for accountability and for punters who want depth, but the season data says these don't clear the staking bar at standard terms.
How It's Built
10,000 simulations. 19,853 rounds. 120-player PGA Tour Fall Series field. Course profile applied: putting 35%, approach 31%, off the tee 22%, around the green 12%. Six outright winners this season. Two major champions. Casey 2nd at $105. New format P/L: +17.05u through nine weeks.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
SavvyPlays · Built different. Bet smarter. · Not financial advice. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call GambleAware on 1800 858 858.
SavvyPlays — Game Preview Card
Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 30 Sept
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice