Biltmore Championship Asheville
Biltmore Championship Asheville · September 18–21, 2026
The Biltmore Championship Asheville, PGA Tour Fall Series — a 132-player field weaker than the regular season, which means edges can be wider. One Best Bet this week: Ben Kohles WIN at $76, +2.6pp — the largest edge we have seen since the Tour Championship. Three E/W plays behind him: Kevin Yu at $51, Patrick Fishburn at $129 and Emiliano Grillo at $71. Total outlay: 2.5 units.
This Week's Plays — The Staked Card, 2.5 Units
🔥 Kohles, Ben
+2.6pp win edge, the largest on the card. +11.8pp T10 edge, 23.0% T10 probability. #2 skill estimate in the field (+1.32 AdjSG). Kohles has been a consistent model selection all season, finishing 9th at the 3M Open from the Watchlist.
✅ Yu, Kevin
+1.2pp win edge at $51. #4 skill estimate (+1.29 AdjSG) with 20.3% T10 probability. Strong all-round profile suits equal-weights venues.
✅ Fishburn, Patrick
+1.0pp win edge at $129. 12.8% T10 probability and +4.0pp T10 edge. Recurring model pick at mid-tier prices where the E/W place returns are meaningful.
✅ Grillo, Emiliano
+1.0pp win edge at $71. 16.8% T10 probability and +4.7pp T10 edge. Grillo has been a regular value pick this season with T7 at the 3M Open.
WIN play for the Best Bet. E/W (1/5 odds, 5 places) for value plays. One Best Bet at the Biltmore: Kohles at +2.6pp is the highest edge we have seen since the Tour Championship (Kim Tom +3.5pp). The Fall Series field is weaker than the regular season, which creates wider edges for our model's top-ranked players. No course profile — equal weights. Total outlay: 2.5 units.
👀 Watchlist — Tracked, Not Staked
| Player | Price | Edge | T10 Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hossler, Beau | $54 | +0.9pp | +2.2pp | Watchlist |
| Blair, Zac | $116 | +0.9pp | +6.6pp | Watchlist |
| Skinns, David | $205 | +0.8pp | +7.2pp | Watchlist |
| Ghim, Doug | $32 | +0.8pp | -0.3pp | Watchlist |
| Merritt, Troy | $1,001 | +0.8pp | +5.9pp | Watchlist |
| Thompson, Davis | $29 | +0.7pp | +2.7pp | Watchlist |
| Jaeger, Stephan | $121 | +0.7pp | +1.1pp | Watchlist |
| Hoey, Rico | $91 | +0.6pp | +3.0pp | Watchlist |
| Hodges, Lee | $100 | +0.6pp | +2.0pp | Watchlist |
| Blanchet, Chandler | $251 | +0.6pp | +3.8pp | Watchlist |
The rest of the model's positive-edge output. Shown for accountability and for punters who want depth — but the season data says these don't clear the staking bar at standard terms.
How It's Built
10,000 simulations. 19,439 rounds. 132-player PGA Tour Fall Series field. No course profile — equal weights. Six outright winners this season. Two major champions. Casey 2nd at $105. New format P/L: +19.55u through eight weeks.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
SavvyPlays · Built different. Bet smarter. · Not financial advice. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call GambleAware on 1800 858 858.
SavvyPlays — Game Preview Card
Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 17 Sept
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice