Butterfield Bermuda Championship
Port Royal Golf Course · 22-25 October 2026
Four each-way selections, 2.0 units in total. Greyson Sigg is the only player above our +1.5 percentage-point threshold at the reference prices; Troy Merritt completes the card alongside Seamus Power and Rico Hoey. No one-unit win bet this week.
Bermuda, before the first tee shot
Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton hosts a 120-player field from 22 to 25 October. The Robert Trent Jones layout measures 6,828 yards at par 71. Adam Schenk returns as defending champion. The first group is scheduled for 7:35am Bermuda time on Thursday, which is 9:35pm AEDT tonight.
Weather: allow for uncertainty
The tournament forecast issued on Wednesday points to showers on Thursday morning and west-southwesterly winds turning westerly at 10-15mph, gusting near 20mph. A front is expected to bring more rain late Friday into Saturday, with blustery northeasterly winds over the weekend. Conditions deserve attention, but this run has no quantified weather or tee-time advantage. We are not adding a wind bonus to the selections.
Prices and each-way terms
E/W plays assume 1/5 odds, 5 places. Each 0.5-unit selection means 0.25u win plus 0.25u place. Paper stakes are used for editorial tracking. Prices below are the PointsBet-labelled outright quotes in our market snapshot at 10:34am AEDT on Thursday 22 October. Australian availability and the matching each-way terms have not been independently confirmed. Check both before following a selection; shorter prices reduce the edge.
The card: 2.0 units
🔥 Best Bet Greyson Sigg
The strongest price gap on this card: 2.52% model win estimate against 0.99% implied by $101, a +1.53pp edge. His approach estimate is +0.32 strokes per round; the putting estimate is slightly negative. This is a price-led selection, not a claim that every part of his game is firing.
✅ Value Troy Merritt
At $351, the market implies a 0.28% win chance against our 1.56% estimate, a +1.28pp gap. Putting is the positive component (+0.25 strokes per round), while off-the-tee and approach estimates are negative. The long price comes with negative ball-striking estimates.
✅ Value Seamus Power
A 4.24% model win estimate against 3.23% implied by $31 gives +1.01pp. Putting (+0.37 strokes per round) and work around the green (+0.27) carry his profile. His short-term skill estimate is above the longer-term baseline, but $31 does not clear our threshold for a one-unit win play.
✅ Value Rico Hoey
The strongest win estimate of our four selections at 4.46%, compared with 3.45% implied by $29. Off-the-tee (+0.54 strokes per round) and approach (+0.25) do the work. The putting estimate is around neutral. At this reference price he qualifies for the smaller each-way allocation.
Why four each-way plays?
The same player can be a win bet at one price and an each-way selection at another. Power and Hoey cleared +1.5pp against the best quotes across all books, but not at the consistent reference prices used here. Recalculating the edges leaves four half-unit each-way plays and a 2.0-unit total. Sigg remains the Best Bet by edge; his price above $80 keeps his stake at 0.5u each-way under our framework. The edge is an outright-probability comparison, not a separate calculation of each-way expected return.
Watchlist: tracked, not staked
| Player | Price | Edge | T10 Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Kohles | $31 | +0.73pp | -1.31pp | Watchlist |
| Kevin Roy | $29 | +0.15pp | +0.93pp | Watchlist |
| Peter Malnati | $126 | +0.53pp | +1.88pp | Watchlist |
| Jonathan Byrd | $301 | +0.56pp | +3.20pp | Watchlist |
| David Skinns | $176 | +0.42pp | +1.74pp | Watchlist |
| Dylan Wu | $101 | +0.08pp | +0.79pp | Watchlist |
| Brice Garnett | $176 | +0.35pp | +2.38pp | Watchlist |
| Justin Lower | $71 | +0.03pp | +1.68pp | Watchlist |
| Martin Laird | $301 | +0.31pp | +1.91pp | Watchlist |
| Hayden Springer | $71 | +0.02pp | -0.49pp | Watchlist |
These players remain below the +0.8pp staking threshold at the reference prices. Patrick Fishburn also appeared in the original shortlist, but at $51 his edge becomes -0.32pp, so he is excluded from the positive-edge watchlist. Top-10 edges are informational; there are no top-10 or top-20 bets on this card.
How it is built
10,000 simulations, using the refreshed historical database and current confirmed field. The skill model has sufficient history for 113 of the 120 entrants; seven low-history players are not simulated, so the quoted model probabilities are conditional on the covered field and may be overstated. There is no full-field calibration claim. Port Royal has insufficient component data for a course-specific weighting profile, so equal component weights are used, with course-history adjustments available for 50 players. The estimates guide the shortlist; they are not precise forecasts or guaranteed value.
Season note
The last published card, Bank of Utah plus Dunhill Links, settled at -4.0u. The historical season ledger remains under reconciliation, so no revised running total is claimed here. Genesis in South Korea has already started; this edition contains no backdated Genesis selections.
Sources
PGA Tour event information, official round-one starting times and the tournament weather forecast issued 21 October 2026. Prices: PointsBet-labelled market snapshot, 21 October 23:34:47 UTC. Field: 22 October 01:50:49 UTC.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
Not financial advice. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call GambleAware on 1800 858 858.
SavvyPlays — Game Preview Card
Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 22 Oct
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice