Butterfield Bermuda Championship Review
Port Royal Golf Course · 22-26 October 2026
Seamus Power took us to a Monday playoff, but Austin Smotherman won it on the third extra hole. Power’s place return limited the damage: the published paper card finished at -0.25u from 2.0u staked.
A playoff short of a very different week
Power and Smotherman finished 54 holes at 16-under after weather forced the cancellation of the final round. The title was settled on Monday, when Smotherman won with a par on the third playoff hole. Power’s rounds of 66, 64 and 67 put the $31 selection in contention throughout.
The published card
| # | Player | Odds | Edge | Finish | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Greyson Sigg | $101 | 0.25u E/W; 0.50u total | T11 | ✗ |
| 2 | Troy Merritt | $351 | 0.25u E/W; 0.50u total | CUT | ✗ |
| 3 | Seamus Power | $31 | 0.25u E/W; 0.50u total | 2 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rico Hoey | $29 | 0.25u E/W; 0.50u total | T52 | ✗ |
The original card used 0.25u win plus 0.25u place per player, for 0.5u total each. Its stated paper terms were one-fifth odds, five places. Those terms were disclosed assumptions, not verified bookmaker settlement terms. Power’s $31 win price therefore gave a $7 place price under that published assumption. The 0.25u place stake returned 1.75u, including stake. His win half lost, leaving +1.25u net on Power. Greyson Sigg, Troy Merritt and Rico Hoey each lost 0.5u.
How the four selections finished
Greyson Sigg: T11 at 12-under, with rounds of 67, 64 and 70. He was in contention after two rounds but finished outside the five places. Net: -0.50u. Troy Merritt: missed cut at one-under after 73 and 68. Negative ball-striking estimates were the weakness behind the long $351 price. Net: -0.50u. Seamus Power: second at 16-under, beaten in the playoff. The place leg returned, but the runner-up finish alone does not validate the pre-event win estimate. Net: +1.25u. Rico Hoey: T52 at six-under after 69, 67 and 71. Making the cut was not enough for the five-place position. Net: -0.50u.
Actual prices for future top-five selections
Future previews will price win and top-five bets separately from observed bookmaker quotes. We will use the arithmetic average, rounded down to the nearest $0.10, and retain the snapshot used when the selection is published. Power’s archived top-five closing quotes were $8.10, $8.50, $6.00, $7.25, $9.00 and $7.00. Their average was $7.6417, producing a $7.60 benchmark. A 0.25u top-five stake at that benchmark would return 1.90u and, with the original stakes and other results held fixed, give a -0.10u card result. That is a retrospective comparison. The original published paper result remains -0.25u because $7.60 was not recorded as our top-five selection before the tournament. The archived top-five bets were recorded as paid in full.
What carries forward
Keep the original prices and stakes when grading a published card. Separate the playoff result from the quality of the selection, and keep unstaked watchlist names outside the profit-and-loss calculation. The shortened event removed a round from the original four-round forecast. It is a circumstance to record, not a reason to retune the model around one finish. There were no staked head-to-head or top-10 selections on this card, and no Genesis selections to settle.
Sources and record
The original SavvyPlays Bermuda preview, completed tournament round data, the PGA Tour leaderboard and its 26 October playoff report. The six archived top-five prices share a closing timestamp of 21 October at 23:19; the archive does not specify the timezone. No new season-to-date total or complete closing-line-value claim is made.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
SavvyPlays — Game Preview Card
Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 28 Oct
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice