FedEx St. Jude Championship
TPC Southwind · August 13–16, 2026
The FedEx Cup Playoffs open at TPC Southwind with an elite 69-player field and no cut — the strongest field we've covered since the majors. Two Best Bets this week: Michael Brennan to WIN at $66 fresh off the Wyndham, and Ryan Fox each-way at $172. Total outlay: 3.0 units.
TPC Southwind
Ron Prichard design, par 70. A tight, demanding course that rewards precision iron play into small greens. 1,786 historical rounds and 45 players with 8+ rounds of course history. Approach-led at 37% with strong putting influence (34%). No cut — all 69 players complete 72 holes.
This Week's Plays — The Staked Card, 3.0 Units
🔥 Brennan, Michael
Won the Wyndham last week at -22 with +17.7 SG. +3.3pp win edge — tied for the largest of the season. +0.49 APP and +0.31 PUTT on an approach/putting course. The hottest player in golf right now at a price that hasn't caught up.
🔥 Fox, Ryan
The Open Championship winner. +1.5pp win edge at a generous price. 16.7% T10 probability vs market 7.7% — the +9.0pp T10 edge is massive. At $172 the E/W place component carries real value.
✅ Matsuyama, Hideki
+1.3pp win edge. #5 AdjSG (+1.56) in this elite field. 38.5% T10 probability — the highest on the card. +0.55 APP and +0.54 ARG on a course that rewards precision.
✅ Kim, Michael
+0.9pp win edge at $176. 15.1% T10 probability at a price where the each-way place returns are meaningful. A mid-tier play in a field of stars.
Two Best Bets. Brennan brings the largest edge of the week (+3.3pp) fresh off winning the Wyndham. Fox brings The Open pedigree and +9.0pp T10 edge. Matsuyama is the elite course fit. Kim is the longshot value. Total outlay: 3.0 units (1.0u WIN on Brennan + 0.5u E/W on each of the other three). No cut this week — all 69 players play four rounds. All prices were best available at time of publication.
👀 Watchlist — Tracked, Not Staked
| Player | Price | Edge | T10 Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole, Eric | $139 | +0.9pp | +3.8pp | Watchlist |
| Smith, Jordan | $101 | +0.8pp | +5.4pp | Watchlist |
| Theegala, Sahith | $151 | +0.8pp | +5.1pp | Watchlist |
| Smalley, Alex | $94 | +0.8pp | +2.4pp | Watchlist |
| Scott, Adam | $137 | +0.7pp | +4.9pp | Watchlist |
| Poston, J.T. | $151 | +0.7pp | +4.7pp | Watchlist |
| McCarty, Matt | $281 | +0.7pp | +5.6pp | Watchlist |
| Gotterup, Chris | $50 | +0.6pp | -1.0pp | Watchlist |
| Im, Sungjae | $95 | +0.6pp | +2.8pp | Watchlist |
| Fowler, Rickie | $76 | +0.5pp | +3.7pp | Watchlist |
The rest of the model's positive-edge output. Shown for accountability and for punters who want depth — but the season data says these don't clear the staking bar at standard terms.
How It's Built
10,000 simulations. 16,676 rounds. Course-fit from 1,786 rounds at TPC Southwind. 45 players with course history. 69-player FedEx Cup playoff field, no cut. Five outright winners this season. Two major champions. New format P/L: -7.0u through three weeks.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
SavvyPlays · Built different. Bet smarter. · Not financial advice. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call GambleAware on 1800 858 858.
SavvyPlays — Game Preview Card
Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 13 Aug
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice