TOUR Championship
East Lake Golf Club · August 27–30, 2026
The FedEx Cup finale at East Lake Golf Club — Donald Ross design, par 70, only the top 30 tee it up, no cut. Putting-dominant at 39% with approach strong at 35%; off the tee barely matters at 12%. Three Best Bets — the most conviction on a single event this season: Tom Kim (+3.5pp, the largest edge of the entire season), Robert MacIntyre (+1.6pp) and Chris Gotterup (+1.6pp), all to WIN, plus Ryan Fox each-way at $183. Total outlay: 3.5 units.
East Lake Golf Club
Donald Ross design, par 70. The FedEx Cup finale — only the top 30 players tee it up. 594 historical rounds and 12 players with 8+ rounds of course history. Putting-dominant at 39%, approach strong at 35%. OTT barely matters at 12% — East Lake rewards precision and touch. Kim Tom's +0.65 APP and Gotterup's +0.31 PUTT are the angles. No cut — all 30 complete 72 holes.
This Week's Plays — The Staked Card, 3.5 Units
🔥 Kim, Tom
+3.5pp win edge — the largest edge of the entire season. +0.65 SG:APP (#2 in field) on a 35% approach course. 40.6% T10 probability, +12.0pp T10 edge. The model's highest-conviction play of 2026.
🔥 MacIntyre, Robert
+1.6pp win edge. 31.9% T10 probability at $51. Won the Canadian Open earlier this season and T7 at the BMW last week with +5.4 SG. Consistent performer in elite fields.
🔥 Gotterup, Chris
+1.6pp win edge. 41.3% T10 probability — the highest on the card. +0.53 OTT and +0.31 PUTT with the variance (2.70 std) to win a 30-player shootout at $29.
✅ Fox, Ryan
+1.1pp win edge at $183. The Open Championship winner. 20.5% T10 probability and +5.7pp T10 edge. At this price the E/W place component carries genuine value in a 30-player field.
Three Best Bets at the Tour Championship — the most conviction on a single event this season. Kim Tom's +3.5pp is the season's highest edge — bigger than Suber's +3.3pp at the Scottish Open or Brennan's +3.3pp at the St. Jude. WIN plays for Best Bets; E/W (1/5 odds, 5 places) for value plays. In a 30-player field with no cut, every play makes the weekend. Total outlay: 3.5 units. All prices were best available at time of publication.
👀 Watchlist — Tracked, Not Staked
| Player | Price | Edge | T10 Edge | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smalley, Alex | $76 | +1.4pp | +8.6pp | Watchlist |
| Woodland, Gary | $72 | +1.1pp | +5.3pp | Watchlist |
| Kim, Si Woo | $31 | +0.9pp | +2.1pp | Watchlist |
| Bridgeman, Jacob | $87 | +0.9pp | +9.9pp | Watchlist |
| Hovland, Viktor | $31 | +0.9pp | +0.9pp | Watchlist |
| Cantlay, Patrick | $21 | +0.7pp | +4.2pp | Watchlist |
| Gerard, Ryan | $58 | +0.6pp | +2.7pp | Watchlist |
| Scott, Adam | $56 | +0.6pp | +3.0pp | Watchlist |
The rest of the model's positive-edge output. Shown for accountability and for punters who want depth — but the season data says these don't clear the staking bar at standard terms.
How It's Built
10,000 simulations. 18,014 rounds. Course-fit from 594 rounds at East Lake Golf Club. 12 players with course history. 30-player FedEx Cup finale, no cut. Six outright winners this season. Two major champions. New format P/L: +22.3u through five weeks. Kim Tom's +3.5pp is the highest-edge play we've ever published.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
SavvyPlays · Built different. Bet smarter. · Not financial advice. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call GambleAware on 1800 858 858.
SavvyPlays — Game Preview Card
Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 26 Aug
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice