VidantaWorld Mexico Open
Vidanta Vallarta · 29 October-1 November 2026
Four selections, 2.0 units in total. Chan Kim leads the card, with Kevin Roy, Emiliano Grillo and Jordan Smith. Each has 0.25u to win and 0.25u for a top-five finish, using separate observed market prices.
Mexico, before the first tee shot
The VidantaWorld Mexico Open runs from 29 October to 1 November at Vidanta Vallarta, a par-71 course measuring 7,337 yards. Brian Campbell returns as defending champion. The 120-player field now includes Adam Hadwin, who replaces C.T. Pan. The first group starts at 7:05am Thursday local time, or 12:05am AEDT on Friday 30 October. Seamus Power and Austin Smotherman have withdrawn, with Harry Higgs and Will Gordon taking their places.
The card
Lead selection Chan Kim
Win $89.50; top five $17.60. Our win estimate is 2.79%, a +1.68 percentage-point gap against the win price. T6 in Bermuda gives Chan Kim some recent form behind the price. His approach estimate is positive, and he receives the maximum historical course adjustment. That is also the reservation: without the old course adjustments his win estimate falls to 1.72%. Keep the allocation small.
Value selection Kevin Roy
Win $57.30; top five $11.80. Our win estimate is 2.79%, a +1.05 percentage-point gap against the win price. Roy has positive estimates across all four strokes-gained components, led by his driving. His historical course adjustment reaches the model cap. The course-neutral win estimate falls to 1.74%, so the old layout is doing meaningful work in the selection.
Value selection Emiliano Grillo
Win $87.40; top five $16.80. Our win estimate is 1.99%, a +0.85 percentage-point gap against the win price. Grillo has the clearest approach-led case of these longer prices, at +0.36 strokes per round. Recent finishes are less convincing: T52 in Bermuda and T43 in Utah. His course-neutral win estimate is 1.05%, which keeps this a small price-led position.
Value selection Jordan Smith
Win $45.00; top five $9.90. Our win estimate is 3.03%, a +0.81 percentage-point gap against the win price. Smith has the strongest win estimate of the four. Driving and approach lead his skill profile, and he receives no player-specific course-history bonus. His win estimate remains 3.11% in the course-neutral run. He only narrowly clears our selection threshold at this price.
Total stake: 2.0u across four players and eight separate bets. Prices are shown in win / top-five order. There is no one-unit win selection: Chan Kim clears the +1.5 percentage-point win threshold, but his price is above the existing $80 limit for that allocation. The smaller selections clear the established +0.8pp outright screen; each top-five price has also been checked separately.
A changed course, with the same primary model
The tournament introduces new routing for 2026. That makes the transfer of previous Vidanta results less certain. Our established course-weighted model remains the basis for the card; a second run without historical course adjustments is used to show how much the selections depend on them. Kim, Roy and Grillo all benefit from historical course adjustments. Smith is the steadier case across the two runs. We have kept every player at 0.5u total rather than increasing exposure after Power’s near miss in Bermuda.
Weather: improving after the rain
The official forecast issued at 6am local time on Wednesday gives a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms on Thursday, followed by drier weather. Winds are expected to be light in the mornings and build during the afternoon, with forecast speeds around 8-14mph later in the week. That deserves attention, but we have not added a numerical weather adjustment or a tee-time advantage to any selection.
How the prices are recorded
Each reference price is the arithmetic average of the available bookmaker quotes for that market, rounded down to the nearest $0.10. Win and top-five prices are calculated independently. The snapshot is stamped 7:14am AEDT on 29 October; each selected player has 14 win quotes and 12 top-five quotes. These are paper-tracking benchmarks, not a promise that one bookmaker offers the average. For an actual wager, record the price available to you and its settlement rules. Top-five dead heats can reduce the return. No assumed fraction of the win price is used for the top-five bet.
How it is built
10,000 simulations use the refreshed historical database and the updated field, with the established skill weights and calibration retained. Vidanta’s historical course profile uses 1,677 rounds. The model has enough strokes-gained history for 112 of the 120 entrants; the eight low-history players are not simulated. The estimates are conditional on that covered field and may be overstated. The top-five probability scaling has been corrected and checked. That repair does not change the win forecasts on identical inputs. The refreshed field does change the forecasts, so the figures here supersede the earlier draft.
Last week
Bermuda’s published paper card returned 1.75u from 2.0u staked, a loss of 0.25u. Power finished second after losing the Monday playoff. The separate review explains both the original settlement and the new observed-price benchmark. No revised season total is claimed.
Sources and timing
PGA Tour pre-tournament notes, the official field list dated 28 October at 8:35am local time, round-one starting times and the tournament weather forecast issued 28 October. The full 120-player field was cross-checked against the official list. Bookmaker win and top-five snapshot: 7:14am AEDT on 29 October. Prepared before play on 29 October, Sydney time.
Methodology: Monte Carlo simulation of the field over 10,000 trials, weighting strokes-gained skill estimates, course-fit, and recent form. Edge = our win% − market-implied%.
SavvyPlays — Game Preview Card
Stats sourced from official league data & partner APIs · Generated 28 Oct
For informational purposes only · Not gambling advice