A new PGA TOUR venue, four price-based selections, and a recent-form case for Hirata and Smith.
VenueFazio Canyons
Course / formatPar 72 / 7,451 yards
Dates12–15 November
Paper allocation2.0u total
First published 12 November 2026 (Sydney). Based on field and price checks at 12 Nov 2026, 01:21 AM AEDT. Model estimates use results through 8 November.
Before first tee. The captured tee-time feed begins at 7:00 am Central on Thursday 12 November: midnight at the start of Friday 13 November in Sydney.
A new stop, with little course history to lean on
The PGA TOUR visits Fazio Canyons at Omni Barton Creek Resort & Spa from 12–15 November. This is the inaugural event at the par-72, 7,451-yard course. The current name is Austin Championship presented by Compliance Solutions, replacing the earlier Good Good branding. Official event update · Tournament details.
Our approach puts more weight on current performance and price than on claims about course specialists. There is no PGA TOUR history at this venue to validate such a claim. Last week’s Cabo results are included, but this is a different test and another four rounds to negotiate.
The four-player card
Each selection has two separate positions: 0.25u to win and 0.25u for a top-five finish. That is 0.50u per player and 2.0u for the tournament. These are paper allocations; no bet has been placed or recorded.
The dollar figures are decimal-odds benchmarks, calculated from bookmaker averages and rounded down to the nearest $0.10. They are not a promise that any one bookmaker offers that exact quote. Top-five and win bets are separate markets; check availability and settlement terms, including dead heats.
Selection
Win benchmark
Top-five benchmark
Model win
Model top five
Win + top-five stake
Ben Kohles
$38.90
$9.30
4.65%
16.66%
0.25u + 0.25u
Kensei Hirata
$108.60
$22.50
1.50%
6.23%
0.25u + 0.25u
Jordan Smith
$27.40
$6.70
4.16%
16.21%
0.25u + 0.25u
Peter Malnati
$183.20
$31.60
1.14%
5.15%
0.25u + 0.25u
The model covers 119 of 120 entrants; Casey Russell is excluded for insufficient history. Probabilities are conditional on the modelled field and do not allocate a chance to the omitted player.
Why each player is on the card
The strongest price gap
Ben Kohles
Kohles finished T25 at the World Wide Technology Championship, following T17 in both Bermuda and at Baycurrent. He has kept producing respectable finishes without a recent top-five breakthrough. That gives this selection a steady base, while also making the distinction between consistency and winning potential important.
He leads the card because the model’s win estimate has the largest gap over the bookmaker-average break-even probability. A first-time venue limits the course evidence, and his recent results do not justify treating a podium finish as routine.
Break-even probabilities at the benchmarks: 2.57% win / 10.75% top five. Quotes: 14 bookmakers for win, 11 for top five.
The recent contender
Kensei Hirata
Hirata arrives off fourth place at the World Wide Technology Championship after T11 at the Mexico Open. That is a much stronger finish to his recent sequence than the missed cuts in Utah and Asheville, with T34 in Bermuda between those stretches.
The improving results support a small position at a three-figure win benchmark. The risk is that two strong weeks are a short sample, especially before a new course. His earlier missed cuts remain part of the assessment.
Break-even probabilities at the benchmarks: 0.92% win / 4.44% top five. Quotes: 14 bookmakers for win, 11 for top five.
Form with a narrower margin
Jordan Smith
Smith finished T8 last week, T16 at the Mexico Open and T4 at Baycurrent. Of the four selections, his recent record offers the clearest evidence of repeated contention rather than one isolated finish.
The price already reflects some of that quality. His top-five margin is comparatively thin, so a shorter available quote can erase the attraction quickly. He belongs on the paper card at the recorded benchmark, with the actual price checked again before acting.
Break-even probabilities at the benchmarks: 3.65% win / 14.93% top five. Quotes: 14 bookmakers for win, 11 for top five.
The small-stake outsider
Peter Malnati
Malnati’s T18 last week followed a missed cut at the Mexico Open and T25 in Bermuda. Earlier autumn results included another missed cut in Utah and T17 in Asheville. There is enough competitive golf to explain the model interest, but little reason to disguise the uneven form.
This is primarily a price selection. The long win benchmark compensates for a low estimated chance of winning, and the separate top-five position offers a second route to a return. Neither turns him into a dependable contender.
Break-even probabilities at the benchmarks: 0.55% win / 3.16% top five. Quotes: 14 bookmakers for win, 9 for top five.
What changes the card
Kohles is retained from last week’s PGA card. Hirata, Smith and Malnati replace Power, Hitt and Skinns in this week’s four-player ranking. This is a new tournament assessment, not a revision to last week’s selections.
A withdrawal removes the player from consideration. Shorter actual prices reduce the value margin; being on this list is not a reason to accept any available quote. Fields and prices may change; check the current field and actual offers before acting.
Data, pricing and limits
Each event uses 10,000 simulations with historical results refreshed through the completed 8 November events. Neither run has a fitted profile for this week’s course, so these are general performance estimates rather than demonstrated course-fit advantages. No weather-draw advantage is claimed.
The price benchmark gives equal weight to each observed bookmaker quote and excludes Data Golf’s own model price. The model estimates and bookmaker averages are separate inputs. Recent finishes are taken from the refreshed historical results, not inferred from the odds.
Field, tee times, historical results and bookmaker observations: Data Golf. Forecasts and selection assessment: SavvyPlays. Download the paper card.