PGA TOUR / 5-8 November / saved pre-tournament analysis
Kohles leads our Cabo card
Four selections at bookmaker-average prices, with Seamus Power back in the mix after his Bermuda runner-up finish.
CourseEl Cardonal
Par / yards72 / 7,452
Field120 players
First tee · SydneyFri 12:30 am
The World Wide Technology Championship runs 5-8 November in Los Cabos, with Ben Griffin defending the title at Tiger Woods’ El Cardonal design. The opening round begins at 6:30 am local time, which is 12:30 am Friday 6 November in Sydney. PGA TOUR event information · Official schedule.
Published after the tournament started. This analysis and paper card were prepared on 5 November before the first tee, using prices captured at 4:30 pm AEDT. First published on 6 November after play began. The prices and forecasts are preserved as that earlier assessment; this is not an in-play recommendation.
The saved card
Ben Kohles leads, with Seamus Power supplying the strongest recent finish. Austin Hitt and David Skinns complete the card at longer prices. These are the four largest positive win-probability edges among players who also retain a positive top-five assessment at the rounded bookmaker averages.
Selection
Win price
Top-five price
Model win
Model top five
Stake · win + top five
Ben Kohles
$38.90
$8.80
5.48%
17.51%
0.25u + 0.25u
Seamus Power
$45.00
$10.00
3.16%
11.42%
0.25u + 0.25u
Austin Hitt
$106.80
$20.20
1.57%
6.30%
0.25u + 0.25u
David Skinns
$275.10
$47.10
0.91%
4.05%
0.25u + 0.25u
2.0u total: 0.25u win plus 0.25u top five per player, or 0.5u total each. These are separate win and top-five markets; no each-way fraction is assumed. This is the saved paper card prepared before the tournament and first published after play began. No bets are recorded as placed.
Prices observed 5 November, 4:30 pm AEDT. Equal-weight bookmaker averages, rounded down to the nearest $0.10; these are reference prices rather than a single bookmaker’s offer. Top-five dead-heat rules affect settlement.
Why these four?
The strongest model case
Ben Kohles
Kohles is the clear first selection on the current numbers. His recent results are consistent rather than spectacular: T15 at Biltmore, T13 in Utah and T17 at both Baycurrent and Bermuda. That sequence gives the model a firmer base than a single hot round.
The model puts his win chance at 5.48% and top-five chance at 17.51%. Those are materially stronger than the break-even requirements at $38.90 and $8.80. The objection is straightforward: repeated top-20 finishes are not the same as repeatedly contending to win. We are paying for the chance that his steady form turns into a higher finish.
Bermuda form travels to Cabo
Seamus Power
Power’s runner-up finish in Bermuda is the strongest recent result among the main selections. It followed T7 at Biltmore and T21 in Utah, so the case is supported by more than one event.
At $45.00 to win and $10.00 for a top five, the model still finds room after averaging the available bookmakers. The win case is stronger than the place case: 3.16% versus a 2.22% break-even win probability, but 11.42% against 10.00% for top five. A shorter place quote would quickly thin that margin.
A step up, with a price to match
Austin Hitt
Hitt won the Korn Ferry Tour Championship after finishing T4 at the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship. A missed cut at Compliance Solutions sits between those results, which is a useful reminder that the recent run has not been uniformly strong.
The move into this PGA TOUR field is the central risk. His $106.80 win and $20.20 top-five benchmarks offer compensation, with model chances of 1.57% and 6.30%. He is a small-stake longshot, not a player we expect to contend every week.
The price-driven fourth selection
David Skinns
Skinns is the least comfortable form selection on the card. T15 in Bermuda was encouraging, but he followed it with T64 at the Mexico Open; earlier autumn results included a missed cut in Utah and 75th at Biltmore.
The reason to include him is the price, not an attempt to disguise that record. At $275.10 to win and $47.10 for top five, the model’s 0.91% and 4.05% estimates leave a value margin. He remains the longest shot of the four, with a correspondingly high chance of returning nothing.
How the tournament could unfold
Griffin’s title defence and Ryan Gerard’s position near the front of the market will draw attention, but our card sits further down the prices. Kohles and Power offer the more established recent form; Hitt and Skinns bring much lower win probabilities and larger potential returns.
The analytical distinction matters. A player can be one of the more likely winners and still be too short for the model, while a much less likely winner can offer value at a sufficiently large price. We are not treating the four selections as the four most likely champions.
For the longer shots, one poor round can overwhelm an otherwise sound week. Hitt’s transition from Korn Ferry competition and Skinns’ uneven autumn form are the clearest ways this card can fail. The stakes stay equal and small rather than increasing exposure to the longest prices.
Data, model coverage and price checks
The established SavvyPlays model ran 10,000 simulations with refreshed completed results through the Mexico Open. It has sufficient history for 113 of the 120 entrants; its probabilities are based on that modelled field. Existing course-history adjustments remain in use. There is no additional discretionary course scenario in this card.
The win averages use 14 bookmaker quotes for Kohles, Power and Hitt and 12 for Skinns. Top-five averages use 12 quotes for the first three and 11 for Skinns. Data Golf’s own model quote is excluded from those averages. The corrected top-five calculation is retained.