**CIN ML (+235 | 3.35)** Schlittler's surface numbers are eye-catching — a 1.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP — but his composite sits at 54.87, barely below Lowder's 56.92, suggesting the model is skeptical that those results fully reflect his true talent level given a FIP of 2.41 still trails the ERA meaningfully. Cincinnati's lineup carries a .698 OPS against right-handed pitching, which is modest, but the gap versus New York's .755 mark isn't wide enough to justify the market pricing CIN as heavy a dog as +235 implies. The model puts Cincinnati's win probability at 48.2% against an implied probability of roughly 29.9% at this number, generating an +18.4% edge — the largest source of disagreement here is purely in the odds, not some dramatic performance advantage. At a neutral park factor of 100, there's no environmental distortion masking the core signal: the market is significantly overvaluing New York's chances relative to what the composite data supports.