**SavvyPlays Pick of the Day: CLE ML (+125)** Arrighetti's surface ERA of 2.57 looks impressive, but his FIP sits 134 points higher at 3.91, suggesting the underlying process is shakier than the results — and our pitcher composite of 42.35 reflects that regression risk. Cantillo's composite of 67.08 grades him as the stronger arm by that measure, even with an ERA/FIP spread of his own, and Houston's lineup posts just a .716 OPS against left-handed pitching, leaving real room for him to operate. Cleveland's offense (.676 OPS vs. RHP) is below average on paper, but the market has overreacted to Arrighetti's record and priced CLE well below their true win probability of 57.6%. At +125 implied odds versus a model-derived 57.6% win probability, the +13.1% edge represents a meaningful disagreement with the market worth acting on at Tier 1 confidence.