**CHW ML @ 2.16 | +14.7% Model Edge | Tier 1** The market is pricing Chicago at roughly 46% implied probability, but the model puts their win probability at 61.0% — that 14.7-point gap is where the value lives. Payton Tolle carries the cleaner surface numbers (3.39 ERA, 3.62 FIP, 1.12 WHIP) and a stronger pitcher composite at 25.83 versus Schultz's 49.4, but Boston's left-handed lineup is doing the heavier lifting here: their .778 OPS against southpaws dwarfs Chicago's .698, yet the White Sox lineup composite (51.16) edges Boston's (49.79), suggesting the model is finding structural value the ERA lines aren't capturing. Schultz's 4.94 FIP indicates his 5.86 ERA is running hotter than his underlying performance, and at a neutral park factor of 100 there's no environmental distortion inflating either side. At 2.16, the price offers meaningful disagreement with the model's read without requiring a perfect performance from Schultz to cash.