**Washington Nationals ML | +17.9% Model Edge | Tier 1** Cade Cavalli holds a meaningful pitching advantage here, with a FIP of 3.45 running well below his ERA and a composite score of 55.31 against Will Warren's 34.64 — Warren's 4.06 FIP and 4.15 ERA suggest his 7-4 record flatters him. The bigger separator is what's happening in the opposing dugout: New York's lineup has posted a .599 OPS and just 3.6 runs per game over their last 15 contests, going 5-10 in that stretch, while Washington has been generating at a 5.33 R/G clip with an .821 OPS over the same window. Both lineups carry nearly identical season OPS against right-handed pitching (WSN .746, NYY .743), so recent form becomes the tiebreaker — and Washington wins that comparison decisively. At 1.91, the market implies roughly a 52% win probability for the Nationals; our model puts it at 70.3%, a gap worth quantifying.