Can Houston make the Chargers chase?
The Chargers have scored 17, six and nine in their last three games and average 14.1 overall. Houston’s last three scores were 26, 34 and 21. That gap gives the Texans a clear route to controlling the game if Stroud can establish an early lead.
The model still asks for an unusually quiet game at 31.2 total points. Houston’s recent scoring is the counterweight to that view, and Montgomery’s absence from Wednesday practice does not by itself establish a collapse in production. The spread is a PASS; the Under is an analysis lean. The editorial view supports Houston’s relative advantage without endorsing the extreme low total.
Matchup areas drawn from the separate efficiency sample through Week 8.