Jacksonville's ground game can set the terms
Indianapolis has lost its last three games and now visits a Jacksonville side returning from its bye. The Jaguars have won both games played in Jacksonville; their two neutral-site games sit outside that home sample. The Colts have struggled to turn competitive stretches into complete performances.
Jacksonville's leading model opportunities are runs behind left guard and short-right passing. Tuten's workload and Washington's target volume offer practical ways to pursue those advantages. Meyers remains limited, but Strange's full practice gives Lawrence another established option.
Taylor and Downs remain central to Indianapolis' response. Gardner returning to full work helps a secondary that has just lost Taylor-Britt to injured reserve, while Warren's limited practice is worth tracking. The model favours the Jaguars, but a substantial handicap already reflects that difference.
Matchup areas drawn from the separate efficiency sample through Week 7.