Panthers v Roosters
SavvyPlays · Sunday 13 September 2026 · CommBank Stadium · 4:05pm AEST
Visual Comparison
01Key Metrics Side-by-Side
Qualifying Final — the winner earns a week off and a home Preliminary Final; the loser gets a second chance in a home Semi Final next week.
Headline averages from every completed match this season (Panthers n=24, Roosters n=24). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).
Team Records
02Season Records & Scoring
Against the Spread
03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)
Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Over / Under
04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)
Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Halves Breakdown
05How Each Team Builds the Game
1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.
Player Contribution Scores
06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs
PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.
Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.
Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).
First Scoring Play
07Who Strikes First
Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.
Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.
Current Streaks
08Active Streaks
Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).
Consistency / Disruption
09Volatility & Squad Health
Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.
Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.
CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.
Named Squads
10Panthers — 88% Best 17 (DS 2.5) — Squad avg ±/G: +13.0
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | Fullback | 19 | +16.8 |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | Wing | 22 | +14.0 |
| 3 | Luke Garner | Centre | 16 | +9.4 |
| 4 | Casey McLean | Centre | 16 | +20.2 |
| 5 | Brian To'o | Wing | 21 | +15.6 |
| 6 | Jack Cole | Five-Eighth | 2 | +10.0 |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | Halfback | 20 | +14.7 |
| 8 | Moses Leota | Prop | 23 | +6.9 |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | Hooker | 7 | +14.3 |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | Prop | 23 | +9.6 |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | Second Row | 22 | +12.6 |
| 12 | Liam Martin | Second Row | 15 | +12.3 |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | Lock | 18 | +12.2 |
| 14 | Freddy Lussick | Interchange | 19 | +7.6 |
| 15 | Scott Sorensen | Interchange | 22 | +7.2 |
| 16 | Liam Henry | Interchange | 14 | +10.7 |
| 17 | Billy Phillips | Interchange | 20 | +4.2 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Izack Tago (2wk absent), Paul Alamoti (4wk absent). Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Named Squads
11Roosters — 94% Best 17 (DS 3.3) — Squad avg ±/G: +6.2
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | Fullback | 17 | +7.5 |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | Wing | 14 | +5.4 |
| 3 | Billy Smith | Centre | 13 | -0.6 |
| 4 | Robert Toia | Centre | 19 | +10.7 |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | Wing | 17 | +9.6 |
| 6 | Hugo Savala | Five-Eighth | 18 | +11.9 |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | Halfback | 22 | +6.8 |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | Prop | 22 | +5.4 |
| 9 | Reece Robson | Hooker | 18 | +9.9 |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | Prop | 16 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | Second Row | 20 | -1.6 |
| 12 | Siua Wong | Second Row | 22 | +7.2 |
| 13 | Victor Radley | Lock | 15 | +8.9 |
| 14 | Connor Watson | Interchange | 22 | +1.2 |
| 15 | Spencer Leniu | Interchange | 19 | -0.3 |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | Interchange | 20 | +7.2 |
| 17 | Angus Crichton | Interchange | 13 | +2.2 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Sam Walker (2wk absent). Long-term (1): Blake Steep (19wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Panthers — Recent Form
12Panthers — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R27 | Wests Tigers | H | 38-10 | W | +28 | -19.5 | W | 49.5 | U |
| 2026 R26 | Bulldogs | H | 24-10 | W | +14 | -9.5 | W | 40.5 | U |
| 2026 R25 | Storm | A | 22-14 | W | +8 | -7.5 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 2026 R24 | Roosters | H | 6-12 | L | -6 | -6.5 | L | 42.5 | U |
| 2026 R23 | Warriors | A | 12-28 | L | -16 | -3.5 | L | 41.0 | U |
Roosters — Recent Form
13Roosters — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R27 | Rabbitohs | A | 20-50 | L | -30 | +22.5 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 2026 R26 | Dolphins | H | 12-26 | L | -14 | -5.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 2026 R25 | Wests Tigers | H | 24-25 | L | -1 | -24.5 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 2026 R24 | Panthers | A | 12-6 | W | +6 | +6.5 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 2026 R23 | Bulldogs | H | 20-18 | W | +2 | -5.5 | L | 44.5 | U |
Panthers — Try Scoring
14Panthers — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Jenkins | Wing | 30 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 15 / 15 |
| B.To'o | Wing | 15 | 3 | — | 4 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 7 / 8 |
| D.Edwards | Fullback | 11 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 3 / 8 |
| C.McLean | Centre | 11 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 / 3 |
| L.Martin | Second Row | 7 | 3 | — | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 / 2 |
| N.Cleary | Halfback | 6 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 / 4 |
| B.Talagi | Interchange | 5 | 1 | — | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 / 3 |
| P.Alamoti | Centre | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 1 |
| L.Henry | Prop | 4 | — | — | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 / 2 |
| F.Lussick | Interchange | 4 | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 / 3 |
Roosters — Try Scoring
15Roosters — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Nawaqanitawase | Wing | 15 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 / 10 |
| D.Tupou | Wing | 13 | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 / 6 |
| R.Toia | Centre | 12 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7 / 5 |
| B.Smith | Wing | 12 | 3 | — | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7 / 5 |
| J.Tedesco | Fullback | 11 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 / 7 |
| S.Walker | Halfback | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 / 7 |
| H.Savala | Centre | 8 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 / 3 |
| D.Cherry-Evans | Five-Eighth | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 / 4 |
| S.Wong | Second Row | 4 | 2 | — | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 / 1 |
| R.Robson | Hooker | 3 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 / 2 |
SavvyPlays Tips — Lean
16The Call
| Rank | Group | Score /G | Opp Concede /G | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attacking Panthers (vs Roosters defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 2.75 | 1.75 | 2.25 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 0.75 | 0.96 | 0.85 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.75 | 0.71 | 0.73 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.62 | 0.29 | 0.46 LOW |
| Attacking Roosters (vs Panthers defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 2.67 | 1.17 | 1.92 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.38 | 0.71 | 1.04 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.58 | 0.54 | 0.56 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.08 LOW |
Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.
Panthers Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.25/game (Panthers backs score 2.75/game; Roosters concede to the backs at 1.75/game).
Qualifying final between the competition's two most successful clubs. Walker's absence at five-eighth is the Roosters' vulnerability; both Panthers centres missing is theirs. CommBank fortress and CI/DS advantage give the Panthers the edge, but the Roosters' freshness and CommBank comfort keep this from Strong.
ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.
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