Rabbitohs v Knights
SavvyPlays · Friday 11 September 2026 · Allianz Stadium · 7:50pm AEST
Visual Comparison
01Key Metrics Side-by-Side
Elimination Final — the loser's season is over. The winner travels to a Semi Final against a beaten Qualifying finalist.
Headline averages from every completed match this season (Rabbitohs n=24, Knights n=24). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).
Team Records
02Season Records & Scoring
Against the Spread
03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)
Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Over / Under
04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)
Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Halves Breakdown
05How Each Team Builds the Game
1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.
Player Contribution Scores
06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs
PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.
Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.
Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).
First Scoring Play
07Who Strikes First
Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.
Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.
Current Streaks
08Active Streaks
Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).
Consistency / Disruption
09Volatility & Squad Health
Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.
Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.
CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.
Named Squads
10Rabbitohs — 94% Best 17 (DS 2.2) — Squad avg ±/G: +6.0
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Dufty | Fullback | 12 | +5.0 |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | Wing | 20 | +8.7 |
| 3 | Latrell Mitchell | Centre | 11 | +8.0 |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | Centre | 17 | +5.5 |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | Wing | 17 | +5.6 |
| 6 | Cody Walker | Five-Eighth | 22 | +6.2 |
| 7 | Jayden Sullivan | Halfback | 13 | +7.2 |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | Prop | 23 | +3.8 |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | Hooker | 15 | +5.3 |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | Prop | 23 | +4.6 |
| 11 | David Fifita | Second Row | 15 | +3.7 |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | Second Row | 20 | +5.8 |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | Lock | 18 | +9.1 |
| 14 | Jye Gray | Interchange | 15 | +3.5 |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | Interchange | 22 | +3.9 |
| 16 | Sean Keppie | Interchange | 16 | +0.0 |
| 17 | Jamie Humphreys | Interchange | 17 | +2.6 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Jai Arrow (new this round). Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Named Squads
11Knights — 80% Best 17 (DS 5.2) — Squad avg ±/G: +3.7
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | Fullback | 14 | +8.0 |
| 2 | Dominic Young | Wing | 22 | +3.5 |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | Centre | 22 | +2.7 |
| 4 | Bradman Best | Centre | 13 | +5.3 |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | Wing | 22 | +3.7 |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | Five-Eighth | 21 | +3.1 |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | Halfback | 16 | +0.3 |
| 8 | Tyson Frizell | Prop | 20 | +2.0 |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | Hooker | 21 | +2.8 |
| 10 | Cody Hopwood | Prop | 3 | +10.7 |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | Second Row | 19 | +1.9 |
| 12 | Francis Manuleleua | Second Row | 10 | +0.7 |
| 13 | Mat Croker | Lock | 23 | +3.0 |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | Interchange | 15 | +1.3 |
| 15 | Lachlan Crouch | Interchange | — | — |
| 16 | Pasami Saulo | Interchange | 14 | +0.7 |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | Interchange | 14 | +0.1 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Trey Mooney (2wk absent), Jacob Saifiti (2wk absent), Brodie Jones (2wk absent). Long-term (2): Dylan Brown (7wk), Dylan Lucas (7wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Rabbitohs — Recent Form
12Rabbitohs — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R27 | Roosters | H | 50-20 | W | +30 | -22.5 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 2026 R26 | Titans | A | 42-22 | W | +20 | -11.5 | W | 55.5 | O |
| 2026 R25 | Warriors | H | 26-45 | L | -19 | +3.5 | L | 45.5 | O |
| 2026 R24 | Bulldogs | A | 22-6 | W | +16 | +4.5 | W | 43.5 | U |
| 2026 R23 | Eels | H | 28-24 | W | +4 | -10.5 | L | 46.0 | O |
Knights — Recent Form
13Knights — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R26 | Warriors | A | 32-46 | L | -14 | +6.5 | L | 47.5 | O |
| 2026 R25 | Sea Eagles | H | 24-44 | L | -20 | -9.5 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 2026 R24 | Titans | H | 36-26 | W | +10 | -12.5 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 2026 R23 | Raiders | A | 30-24 | W | +6 | +3.5 | W | 43.5 | O |
| 2026 R22 | Broncos | A | 30-6 | W | +24 | +5.5 | W | 45.5 | U |
Rabbitohs — Try Scoring
14Rabbitohs — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.Johnston | Wing | 30 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 18 / 12 |
| C.Graham | Wing | 13 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 / 7 |
| L.Mitchell | Centre | 12 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 / 3 |
| T.Duncan | Centre | 12 | — | 2 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 3 / 9 |
| C.Walker | Interchange | 9 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 / 5 |
| D.Fifita | Second Row | 6 | 2 | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 / 3 |
| E.Aitken | Interchange | 6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 / 3 |
| C.Murray | Lock | 5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 / 3 |
| J.Gray | Fullback | 4 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 / 1 |
| J.Wighton | Centre | 4 | — | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 / 0 |
Knights — Try Scoring
15Knights — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G.Marzhew | Wing | 24 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 11 / 13 |
| D.Young | Wing | 20 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 5 / 15 |
| F.Hunt | Wing | 13 | 2 | — | 4 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 6 / 7 |
| F.Sharpe | Five-Eighth | 12 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 / 6 |
| D.Lucas | Second Row | 10 | 2 | — | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 6 / 4 |
| T.Mooney | Prop | 5 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 / 2 |
| K.Ponga | Fullback | 5 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 / 5 |
| D.Gagai | Centre | 5 | 1 | — | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 / 3 |
| B.Best | Centre | 4 | — | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 / 1 |
| P.Crossland | Hooker | 3 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 / 1 |
SavvyPlays Tips — Lean
16The Call
| Rank | Group | Score /G | Opp Concede /G | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attacking Rabbitohs (vs Knights defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 3.12 | 1.71 | 2.42 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 0.38 | 1.29 | 0.83 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.75 | 0.92 | 0.83 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 1.12 | 0.50 | 0.81 LOW |
| Attacking Knights (vs Rabbitohs defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 2.75 | 1.71 | 2.23 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.04 | 1.17 | 1.10 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.96 | 0.88 | 0.92 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.15 LOW |
Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.
Rabbitohs Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.42/game (Rabbitohs backs score 3.12/game; Knights concede to the backs at 1.71/game).
Elimination final — loser's season is over. The Knights' 4-1 H2H dominance is real but their 11% Allianz record and halfback absence are significant. The Rabbitohs are the healthier side on a ground that historically buries Newcastle.
ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.
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