Finals Week 1 · Elimination Final — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Sharks v Cowboys

SavvyPlays · Saturday 12 September 2026 · Allianz Stadium · 7:50pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Elimination Final — the loser's season is over. The winner travels to a Semi Final against a beaten Qualifying finalist.

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Sharks n=24, Cowboys n=24). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Sharks

Metric

Cowboys

28.0

Points For / G

23.7

21.8

Points Against / G

27.2

1,604m

Run Metres / G

1,611m

4.8

Tries / G

4.2

79.1%

Completion %

74.9%

5.3

Penalties Conceded / G

5.6

3.5

Six Agains / G

4.6

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Sharks

Metric

Cowboys

14-10-0#5

Season Record

#813-11-0

8-4-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games6-6-0 (A)

30.2Home · #2

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #1022.8

20.5Home · #5

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #723.8

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Sharks

Metric

Cowboys

13-11-0 (54%)

2026 Season — All

13-11-0 (54%)

8-4-0 (67%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

6-6-0 (50%)

5-7-0 (42%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

7-5-0 (58%)

Current Streak

27-24-0 (53%)

2025-26 — All

26-22-0 (54%)

16-9-0 (64%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

12-12-0 (50%)

11-15-0 (42%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

14-10-0 (58%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Sharks

Metric

Cowboys

12-12-0 (50%)

2026 Season — All

11-13-0 (46%)

6-6-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

6-6-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

5-7-0 (42%)

Current Streak

23-27-1 (46%)

2025-26 — All

25-23-0 (52%)

12-13-0 (48%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

13-11-0 (54%)

11-14-1 (44%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

12-12-0 (50%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Sharks

Metric

Cowboys

14.4

1H Avg For

13.6

11.7

1H Avg Against

12.9

+2.7

1H Net

+0.7

88%

1H Win → Match Win

88%

12.3

2H Avg For

10.6

11.8

2H Avg Against

13.1

+0.5

2H Net

-2.5

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Sharks

Metric

Cowboys

169.3#7 Δ -6.6

Squad PCS

#15 Δ -4.7125.9

45.1#7 Δ -2.7

Spine PCS

#9 Δ -2.741.4

40.1#8 Δ -1.0

Forwards PCS

#13 Δ +1.129.8

65.1#7 Δ -2.3

Backs PCS

#16 Δ -2.645.6

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Sharks

Metric

Cowboys

10/24 (42%)

Scored first try — All games

12/24 (50%)

4/12 (33%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

5/12 (42%)

9/24 (38%)

Conceded first try — All games

11/24 (46%)

5/12 (42%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

6/12 (50%)

3 (H:2 A:1)

Scored first via penalty goal

1 (H:0 A:1)

2 (H:1 A:1)

Conceded first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

2 (H:2 A:0)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

5 (H:2 A:3)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

3 (H:0 A:3)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

5 (H:4 A:1)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

3 (H:1 A:2)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

3 (H:1 A:2)

1 (H:0 A:1)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

4 (H:3 A:1)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

8 (H:4 A:4)

1 (H:1 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Sharks

Metric

Cowboys

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Sharks

Metric

Cowboys

0.506

Overall CI

0.468

0.577

Defensive CI

0.460

23.6

Margin SD

22.2

0.3

Disruption

2.1

100%

Best-17 %

88%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Sharks — 100% Best 17 (DS 0.3) — Squad avg ±/G: +4.7

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	William Kennedy	Fullback	23	+6.1
2	Sione Katoa	Wing	16	+5.2
3	Riley Jones	Centre	1	-4.0
4	KL Iro	Centre	19	+5.9
5	Ronaldo Mulitalo	Wing	14	+9.9
6	Braydon Trindall	Five-Eighth	21	+8.3
7	Nicho Hynes	Halfback	18	+7.4
8	Addin Fonua-Blake	Prop	20	+4.7
9	Blayke Brailey	Hooker	17	+5.3
10	Jesse Colquhoun	Prop	21	+2.3
11	Briton Nikora	Second Row	18	+2.2
12	Teig Wilton	Second Row	20	+5.5
13	Cameron McInnes	Lock	16	+2.9
14	Siosifa Talakai	Interchange	20	+2.1
15	Billy Burns	Interchange	22	+8.1
16	Oregon Kaufusi	Interchange	19	+1.6
17	Thomas Hazelton	Interchange	21	+1.8

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Long-term (1): Jesse Ramien (5wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Cowboys — 88% Best 17 (DS 2.1) — Squad avg ±/G: -2.6

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Scott Drinkwater	Fullback	24	-4.0
2	Braidon Burns	Wing	20	-3.6
3	Jaxon Purdue	Centre	24	-3.9
4	Tom Chester	Centre	23	-3.8
5	Zac Laybutt	Wing	17	-6.0
6	Jake Clifford	Five-Eighth	24	-3.5
7	Tom Dearden	Halfback	12	+0.5
8	Griffin Neame	Prop	22	+0.4
9	Reed Mahoney	Hooker	21	-0.9
10	Jason Taumalolo	Prop	23	-1.0
11	Heilum Luki	Second Row	24	-3.3
12	Jeremiah Nanai	Second Row	9	-6.1
13	Reuben Cotter	Lock	21	+0.8
14	Soni Luke	Interchange	18	-1.9
15	John Bateman	Interchange	6	-4.3
16	Thomas Mikaele	Interchange	21	+1.3
17	Coen Hess	Interchange	24	-4.7

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Robert Derby (new this round), Murray Taulagi (4wk absent). Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Sharks — Recent Form

12Sharks — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R27	Storm	H	20-24	L	-4	+10.5	W	51.5	U
2026 R26	Eels	A	18-38	L	-20	-8.5	L	54.5	O
2026 R25	Titans	A	30-22	W	+8	-8.5	L	50.5	O
2026 R24	Raiders	H	20-24	L	-4	-11.5	L	52.0	U
2026 R23	Dragons	A	16-24	L	-8	-17.5	L	48.5	U

Cowboys — Recent Form

13Cowboys — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R27	Raiders	H	30-50	L	-20	-5.5	L	54.5	O
2026 R26	Wests Tigers	H	24-10	W	+14	-13.5	W	55.5	U
2026 R24	Eels	A	30-32	L	-2	-5.5	L	49.0	O
2026 R23	Titans	A	30-8	W	+22	-4.5	W	48.5	U
2026 R22	Roosters	H	12-82	L	-70	+5.5	L	44.5	O

Sharks — Try Scoring

14Sharks — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
S.Katoa	Wing	16	2	1	2	7	3	4	3 / 13
R.Mulitalo	Wing	12	2	—	2	4	2	4	6 / 6
KL.Iro	Interchange	12	—	1	2	2	4	4	4 / 8
W.Kennedy	Fullback	10	1	—	6	0	3	1	7 / 3
B.Trindall	Five-Eighth	9	2	2	2	3	2	2	8 / 1
T.Wilton	Second Row	8	3	—	3	2	2	1	6 / 2
N.Hynes	Halfback	7	—	1	0	3	1	3	4 / 3
J.Ramien	Centre	6	1	1	1	1	3	1	2 / 4
B.Burns	Second Row	6	—	—	0	6	0	0	4 / 2
S.Talakai	Interchange	5	—	—	2	1	1	1	2 / 3

Cowboys — Try Scoring

15Cowboys — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
B.Burns	Wing	15	—	2	2	5	4	4	5 / 10
M.Taulagi	Wing	11	2	—	4	3	3	1	8 / 3
T.Chester	Centre	11	2	1	3	1	3	4	7 / 4
H.Luki	Second Row	11	1	4	2	2	1	6	6 / 5
S.Drinkwater	Fullback	10	2	—	2	5	1	2	3 / 7
J.Clifford	Five-Eighth	9	1	3	3	2	0	4	6 / 3
J.Purdue	Centre	9	—	—	1	3	5	0	3 / 6
R.Mahoney	Hooker	4	1	—	1	2	1	0	3 / 1
J.Nanai	Second Row	4	—	1	1	1	0	2	2 / 2
R.Cotter	Lock	3	—	1	1	0	1	1	0 / 3

SavvyPlays Tips — Strong

16The Call

Sharks by 10

Strong · LOCKED IN v LOCKED IN

Win

Sharks -7.5

predicted Sharks margin +10 vs line -7.5

ATS

Over 47.5

projected 48.9 · edge +1.4

Over / Under

Sharks Backs

HIGH · 2.06/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Sharks (vs Cowboys defence)
1	Backs	1.54	2.58	2.06 HIGH
2	Spine	1.29	1.42	1.35 MODERATE
3	Interchange	1.12	0.33	0.73 MODERATE
4	Forwards	0.83	0.54	0.69 LOW
Attacking Cowboys (vs Sharks defence)
1	Backs	2.00	2.00	2.00 HIGH
2	Spine	1.12	1.04	1.08 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.92	0.58	0.75 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.12	0.21	0.17 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Sharks Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.06/game (Sharks backs score 1.54/game; Cowboys concede to the backs at 2.58/game).

Elimination final with the clearest quality gap of the four games. The Sharks return at full strength after a strategic R27 rest; the Cowboys arrive with the worst form of any finals team (lost 50-30 to Raiders in R27). The PCS gap of +43.4 is decisive.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.