Finals Week 1 · Qualifying Final — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Warriors v Dolphins

SavvyPlays · Saturday 12 September 2026 · Go Media Stadium · 4:05pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Qualifying Final — the winner earns a week off and a home Preliminary Final; the loser gets a second chance in a home Semi Final next week.

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Warriors n=24, Dolphins n=24). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Warriors

Metric

Dolphins

30.3

Points For / G

27.6

17.4

Points Against / G

21.1

1,670m

Run Metres / G

1,671m

5.3

Tries / G

4.8

80.3%

Completion %

76.1%

4.2

Penalties Conceded / G

5.0

4.5

Six Agains / G

4.4

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Warriors

Metric

Dolphins

18-6-0#1

Season Record

#317-7-0

10-2-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games9-3-0 (A)

29.8Home · #3

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #726.5

18.5Home · #2

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #115.9

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Warriors

Metric

Dolphins

15-9-0 (62%)

2026 Season — All

14-10-0 (58%)

6-6-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

8-4-0 (67%)

9-3-0 (75%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

6-6-0 (50%)

Current Streak

26-21-2 (55%)

2025-26 — All

26-22-0 (54%)

12-12-1 (50%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

12-12-0 (50%)

14-9-1 (61%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

14-10-0 (58%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Warriors

Metric

Dolphins

9-15-0 (38%)

2026 Season — All

9-15-0 (38%)

5-7-0 (42%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

2-10-0 (17%)

4-8-0 (33%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

7-5-0 (58%)

Current Streak

20-29-0 (41%)

2025-26 — All

23-25-0 (48%)

9-16-0 (36%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

8-16-0 (33%)

11-13-0 (46%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

15-9-0 (62%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Warriors

Metric

Dolphins

14.1

1H Avg For

10.7

9.7

1H Avg Against

12.0

+4.4

1H Net

-1.3

100%

1H Win → Match Win

88%

15.4

2H Avg For

18.9

7.7

2H Avg Against

8.3

+7.7

2H Net

+10.6

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Warriors

Metric

Dolphins

189.5#2 Δ +1.4

Squad PCS

#1 Δ -6.5190.8

51.9#3 Δ +2.7

Spine PCS

#5 Δ +1.146.1

46.9#1 Δ +1.4

Forwards PCS

#16 Δ -1.028.4

62.8#9 Δ -3.4

Backs PCS

#1 Δ -6.292.6

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Warriors

Metric

Dolphins

13/24 (54%)

Scored first try — All games

5/24 (21%)

8/12 (67%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

3/12 (25%)

9/24 (38%)

Conceded first try — All games

16/24 (67%)

3/12 (25%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

7/12 (58%)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Scored first via penalty goal

2 (H:0 A:2)

2 (H:1 A:1)

Conceded first via penalty goal

1 (H:1 A:0)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

4 (H:1 A:3)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

8 (H:6 A:2)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

3 (H:1 A:2)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

4 (H:1 A:3)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

7 (H:6 A:1)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

4 (H:2 A:2)

5 (H:2 A:3)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

5 (H:1 A:4)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Warriors

Metric

Dolphins

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Warriors

Metric

Dolphins

0.585

Overall CI

0.488

0.625

Defensive CI

0.508

15.8

Margin SD

22.2

3.6

Disruption

0.3

80%

Best-17 %

100%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Warriors — 80% Best 17 (DS 3.6) — Squad avg ±/G: +10.8

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Taine Tuaupiki	Fullback	19	+10.7
2	Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad	Wing	13	+8.8
3	Ali Leiataua	Centre	19	+15.7
4	Leka Halasima	Centre	17	+9.5
5	Alofiana Khan-Pereira	Wing	15	+11.5
6	Chanel Harris-Tavita	Five-Eighth	19	+13.1
7	Te Maire Martin	Halfback	—	—
8	James Fisher-Harris	Prop	20	+8.1
9	Wayde Egan	Hooker	22	+11.0
10	Mitchell Barnett	Prop	14	+6.0
11	Kurt Capewell	Second Row	12	+15.8
12	Jacob Laban	Second Row	22	+10.2
13	Erin Clark	Lock	23	+8.9
14	Sam Healey	Interchange	20	+3.5
15	Tanner Stowers-Smith	Interchange	18	+7.2
16	Demitric Vaimauga	Interchange	19	+6.5
17	Jackson Ford	Interchange	14	+9.7

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Luke Metcalf (4wk absent), Morgan Gannon (new this round), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (3wk absent). Long-term (2): Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (16wk), Marata Niukore (8wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Dolphins — 100% Best 17 (DS 0.3) — Squad avg ±/G: +6.2

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow	Fullback	18	+8.4
2	Jamayne Isaako	Wing	23	+6.0
3	Jack Bostock	Centre	12	+16.3
4	Herbie Farnworth	Centre	22	+5.9
5	Selwyn Cobbo	Wing	17	+7.9
6	Kodi Nikorima	Five-Eighth	18	+4.9
7	Isaiya Katoa	Halfback	18	+8.6
8	Thomas Flegler	Prop	18	-6.1
9	Jeremy Marshall-King	Hooker	15	+9.0
10	Tom Gilbert	Prop	22	+2.9
11	Max Plath	Second Row	18	+11.2
12	Kulikefu Finefeuiaki	Second Row	21	+4.8
13	Morgan Knowles	Lock	22	+1.4
14	Kurt Donoghoe	Interchange	15	+8.1
15	Ray Stone	Interchange	18	+10.9
16	Francis Molo	Interchange	19	-3.2
17	Connelly Lemuelu	Interchange	22	+3.9

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Long-term (1): Daniel Saifiti (24wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Warriors — Recent Form

12Warriors — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R27	Sea Eagles	H	31-30	W	+1	-10.5	L	50.5	O
2026 R26	Knights	H	46-32	W	+14	-6.5	W	47.5	O
2026 R25	Rabbitohs	A	45-26	W	+19	-3.5	W	45.5	O
2026 R24	Broncos	A	40-6	W	+34	-7.5	W	46.5	U
2026 R23	Panthers	H	28-12	W	+16	+3.5	W	41.0	U

Dolphins — Recent Form

13Dolphins — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R27	Titans	A	24-20	W	+4	-12.0	L	56.5	U
2026 R26	Roosters	A	26-12	W	+14	+5.5	W	49.5	U
2026 R25	Eels	H	34-16	W	+18	-15.0	W	51.5	U
2026 R24	Sea Eagles	A	22-0	W	+22	-11.5	W	51.5	U
2026 R23	Broncos	H	40-32	W	+8	-9.5	L	48.5	O

Warriors — Try Scoring

14Warriors — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
D.Watene-Zelezniak	Wing	20	3	5	5	6	6	3	8 / 12
A.Khan-Pereira	Wing	16	2	1	7	3	2	4	6 / 10
C.Nicoll-Klokstad	Wing	12	2	1	3	2	4	3	10 / 2
J.Laban	Second Row	8	1	1	5	1	0	2	3 / 5
C.Harris-Tavita	Five-Eighth	8	—	1	2	4	0	2	4 / 4
L.Halasima	Centre	8	—	1	2	2	2	2	3 / 5
A.Leiataua	Centre	6	1	—	2	0	4	0	3 / 3
E.Clark	Lock	6	1	1	2	2	1	1	4 / 2
T.Martin	Halfback	6	—	2	1	1	2	2	2 / 4
T.Tuaupiki	Fullback	6	—	2	0	2	1	3	5 / 1

Dolphins — Try Scoring

15Dolphins — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
J.Isaako	Wing	21	—	3	1	11	6	3	12 / 9
S.Cobbo	Wing	17	3	3	3	6	3	5	8 / 9
H.Tabuai-Fidow	Fullback	13	1	2	1	3	4	5	7 / 6
H.Farnworth	Centre	13	—	2	3	6	2	2	8 / 5
J.Averillo	Five-Eighth	6	1	—	2	0	1	3	3 / 3
C.Lemuelu	Interchange	6	—	2	0	2	2	2	4 / 2
J.Bostock	Centre	5	—	—	0	0	1	4	3 / 2
K.Nikorima	Five-Eighth	4	1	—	0	1	1	2	2 / 2
M.Plath	Second Row	4	—	—	0	2	1	1	2 / 2
J.Marshall-King	Hooker	3	—	—	0	0	3	0	2 / 1

SavvyPlays Tips — Lean

16The Call

Warriors by 4

Lean · LOCKED IN v LOCKED IN

Win

Dolphins +4.5

predicted Warriors margin +4 vs line -4.5

ATS

Under 46.5

projected 42.5 · edge -4.0

Over / Under

Warriors Backs

HIGH · 2.33/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Warriors (vs Dolphins defence)
1	Backs	2.88	1.79	2.33 HIGH
2	Spine	1.29	0.92	1.10 MODERATE
3	Forwards	1.04	0.71	0.88 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.08	0.29	0.19 LOW
Attacking Dolphins (vs Warriors defence)
1	Backs	2.46	1.67	2.06 HIGH
2	Spine	1.25	0.71	0.98 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.46	0.62	0.54 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.58	0.08	0.33 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Warriors Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.33/game (Warriors backs score 2.88/game; Dolphins concede to the backs at 1.79/game).

Qualifying final — loser gets a second chance but nobody wants to take the long road. The Dolphins have the healthier squad but the Warriors' home fortress and elite territory form are the tiebreakers in a genuine 55/45 game.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.