Roosters v Sharks
SavvyPlays · Saturday 19 September 2026 · Allianz Stadium · 7:50pm AEST
Visual Comparison
01Key Metrics Side-by-Side
Semi Final — the loser's season is over. The Roosters get a second life at Allianz after their Qualifying Final loss to the Panthers; the Sharks arrive on the long road, having survived an Elimination Final against the Cowboys. The winner goes to a Preliminary Final against a rested Qualifying Final winner.
Headline averages from every completed match this season (Roosters n=24, Sharks n=24). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).
Team Records
02Season Records & Scoring
Against the Spread
03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)
Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Over / Under
04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)
Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Halves Breakdown
05How Each Team Builds the Game
1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.
Player Contribution Scores
06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs
PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.
Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.
Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).
First Scoring Play
07Who Strikes First
Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.
Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.
Current Streaks
08Active Streaks
Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).
Consistency / Disruption
09Volatility & Squad Health
Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.
Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.
CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.
Named Squads
10Roosters — 94% Best 17 (DS 1.9) — Squad avg ±/G: +6.2
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | Fullback | 17 | +7.5 |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | Wing | 14 | +5.4 |
| 3 | Billy Smith | Centre | 13 | -0.6 |
| 4 | Robert Toia | Centre | 19 | +10.7 |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | Wing | 17 | +9.6 |
| 6 | Hugo Savala | Five-Eighth | 18 | +11.9 |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | Halfback | 22 | +6.8 |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | Prop | 22 | +5.4 |
| 9 | Reece Robson | Hooker | 18 | +9.9 |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | Prop | 16 | -0.2 |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | Second Row | 20 | -1.6 |
| 12 | Siua Wong | Second Row | 22 | +7.2 |
| 13 | Victor Radley | Lock | 15 | +8.9 |
| 14 | Connor Watson | Interchange | 22 | +1.2 |
| 15 | Spencer Leniu | Interchange | 19 | -0.3 |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | Interchange | 20 | +7.2 |
| 17 | Angus Crichton | Interchange | 13 | +2.2 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Sam Walker (3wk absent). Long-term (1): Blake Steep (20wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Named Squads
11Sharks — 100% Best 17 (DS 0.3) — Squad avg ±/G: +4.7
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | Fullback | 23 | +6.1 |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | Wing | 16 | +5.2 |
| 3 | Riley Jones | Centre | 1 | -4.0 |
| 4 | KL Iro | Centre | 19 | +5.9 |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | Wing | 14 | +9.9 |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | Five-Eighth | 21 | +8.3 |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | Halfback | 18 | +7.4 |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | Prop | 20 | +4.7 |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | Hooker | 17 | +5.3 |
| 10 | Jesse Colquhoun | Prop | 21 | +2.3 |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | Second Row | 18 | +2.2 |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | Second Row | 20 | +5.5 |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | Lock | 16 | +2.9 |
| 14 | Siosifa Talakai | Interchange | 20 | +2.1 |
| 15 | Billy Burns | Interchange | 22 | +8.1 |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | Interchange | 19 | +1.6 |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | Interchange | 21 | +1.8 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Long-term (1): Jesse Ramien (6wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Roosters — Recent Form
12Roosters — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R28 | Panthers | A | 12-19 | L | -7 | +8.5 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 2026 R27 | Rabbitohs | A | 20-50 | L | -30 | +22.5 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 2026 R26 | Dolphins | H | 12-26 | L | -14 | -5.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 2026 R25 | Wests Tigers | H | 24-25 | L | -1 | -24.5 | L | 53.5 | U |
| 2026 R24 | Panthers | A | 12-6 | W | +6 | +6.5 | W | 42.5 | U |
Sharks — Recent Form
13Sharks — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R28 | Cowboys | H | 26-16 | W | +10 | -7.5 | W | 48.0 | U |
| 2026 R27 | Storm | H | 20-24 | L | -4 | +10.5 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 2026 R26 | Eels | A | 18-38 | L | -20 | -8.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 2026 R25 | Titans | A | 30-22 | W | +8 | -8.5 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 2026 R24 | Raiders | H | 20-24 | L | -4 | -11.5 | L | 52.0 | U |
Roosters — Try Scoring
14Roosters — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M.Nawaqanitawase | Wing | 15 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 / 10 |
| D.Tupou | Wing | 13 | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 7 / 6 |
| R.Toia | Centre | 12 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7 / 5 |
| B.Smith | Wing | 12 | 3 | — | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7 / 5 |
| J.Tedesco | Fullback | 11 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 / 7 |
| S.Walker | Halfback | 10 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 / 7 |
| H.Savala | Centre | 8 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 / 3 |
| D.Cherry-Evans | Five-Eighth | 6 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 / 4 |
| S.Wong | Second Row | 4 | 2 | — | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 / 1 |
| R.Robson | Hooker | 3 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 / 2 |
Sharks — Try Scoring
15Sharks — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S.Katoa | Wing | 16 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 / 13 |
| R.Mulitalo | Wing | 12 | 2 | — | 2 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 6 / 6 |
| KL.Iro | Interchange | 12 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 4 / 8 |
| W.Kennedy | Fullback | 10 | 1 | — | 6 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 / 3 |
| B.Trindall | Five-Eighth | 9 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 / 1 |
| T.Wilton | Second Row | 8 | 3 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 / 2 |
| N.Hynes | Halfback | 7 | — | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 / 3 |
| J.Ramien | Centre | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 / 4 |
| B.Burns | Second Row | 6 | — | — | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 4 / 2 |
| S.Talakai | Interchange | 5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 / 3 |
SavvyPlays Tips — Lean
16The Call
| Rank | Group | Score /G | Opp Concede /G | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attacking Roosters (vs Sharks defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 2.56 | 2.04 | 2.30 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.32 | 1.00 | 1.16 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.56 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.10 LOW |
| Attacking Sharks (vs Roosters defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.48 | 1.72 | 1.60 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.24 | 0.96 | 1.10 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.80 | 0.72 | 0.76 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 1.08 | 0.28 | 0.68 LOW |
Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.
Roosters Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.30/game (Roosters backs score 2.56/game; Sharks concede to the backs at 2.04/game).
Semi-final — loser's season is over. The Roosters' 3-0 H2H dominance and Allianz home record edge the Sharks' marginally superior PCS and full-strength squad. Walker's absence at five-eighth remains the Roosters' vulnerability.
ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.
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