Warriors v Knights

Semi Final — the loser's season is over. The Warriors get a second life at Eden Park after their Qualifying Final loss to the Dolphins; the Knights arrive on the long road, having survived an Elimination Final against the Rabbitohs at Allianz. The winner goes to a Preliminary Final against a rested Qualifying Final winner.

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Warriors n=24, Knights n=24). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Warriors Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.22/game (Warriors backs score 2.76/game; Knights concede to the backs at 1.68/game).

Semi-final with survival stakes for both sides. The Warriors' 5-0 H2H dominance and superior ELO/PCS override the concerning 17% Eden Park record — Week 1 taught us that venue bogeys don't hold in September. The Knights' halfback absence (Brown) is the decisive structural weakness.