Dolphins v Roosters

Preliminary Final — the winner goes to the Grand Final, the loser goes home. The Dolphins have had two weeks off since their Qualifying Final win over the Warriors and host at Suncorp; the Roosters arrive battle-hardened on the long road, having lost a 19-12 Qualifying Final to the Panthers and then demolished the Sharks 46-10 in the Semi Final. Sam Walker returns and the Roosters are at full strength for the first time since Round 24.

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Dolphins n=25, Roosters n=25). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Dolphins Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.05/game (Dolphins backs score 2.36/game; Roosters concede to the backs at 1.73/game).

Preliminary final — winner goes to the Grand Final. Both squads at full strength for the first time in weeks. The Dolphins' PCS advantage and Suncorp home record edge the Roosters' H2H and Walker's return. Our margin of +4 is deliberately inside the model's +9 to respect the Roosters' finals form and the restored Walker.