Warriors v Sharks

Two top-eight sides, both missing key players to Origin. The Warriors are at home in Auckland with the better ±/G (+7.6 vs +5.1), the CI/DS advantage (+3.6), and a 3-2 H2H lead. The Sharks counter with a surprisingly strong record at Go Media Stadium (64%, 7-4) and have been the more consistent team on the road this season. The market has the Warriors at $1.37 — shorter than our model suggests (53.3%). This stays Lean because both teams are depleted and the Sharks have shown they can win in Auckland.

An unusual venue dynamic — the Sharks actually have a better winning percentage at Go Media (64%) than the Warriors (57%). Small sample (11 games) but notable. The Sharks won their R5 meeting this year 36-22 in Sydney, so they’ve already beaten the Warriors once in 2026.

Warriors lead 3-2 but the matchup alternates. The Sharks’ R5 win (36-22) was at Shark Park, not in Auckland. The last time these two met at Go Media, the Warriors won 44-12 (2023 R20). This is a competitive H2H with no dominant pattern.

Both teams are Origin-depleted but the Warriors cope better. The Warriors are at 65% best-17 (missing Fisher-Harris, Barnett, Capewell, Halasima, Tuivasa-Sheck) while the Sharks are at 76% (missing Hynes, Fonua-Blake, Brailey, Nikora). The Warriors’ CI/DS advantage of +3.6 reflects the fact that the Sharks’ outs are in more critical positions — halfback and hooker are harder to replace than props and second-rowers.

The Warriors’ ±/G depth is elite. Tuaupiki (+12.4), Watene-Zelezniak (+12.8), Leiataua (+18.8), Harris-Tavita (+14.0), Egan (+12.7), Ford (+10.7), Clark (+9.3), Laban (+9.5), Vaimauga (+8.7). Nine players averaging double-digit ±/G. Even without their Origin players, the Warriors field one of the strongest named squads in the NRL.

The Sharks’ spine is makeshift. Niwhai Puru (2 GP, +14.0) replaces Hynes at halfback and Jayden Berrell (2 GP, +8.0) replaces Brailey at hooker. Both have impressive ±/G figures but from just 2 games each — tiny samples that could go either way. The Sharks’ experience is in the pack (Colquhoun, Rudolf, Wilton all 10+ games) but the creative engine is untested.

Maire Martin is the unknown. The Warriors’ halfback has no NRL data in our system. He’s replacing the regular half in what is already a disrupted spine. If he struggles, the Warriors’ attack could stall despite having elite outside backs.