Roosters v Sharks

Both sides at 94% best-17. Both 8-5 on the ladder. Both at the same ELO band. This is the most evenly-matched fixture of the round.

The Roosters get the Origin lift — Tedesco, Walker, Robson, Radley, Collins and Toia all return — and the home venue at Allianz where they are 62% since 2020. The Sharks counter with the better season ±/G (+4.2 vs -2.0 pre-form-adjustment) and a 3-2 H2H lead. The Predict margin sits at just +2.4 — a coin flip with the Roosters edging in front. Lean Roosters.

Allianz Stadium is the Roosters' long-term home — 117-71 (62%) all-time and 21-14 (60%) since 2020. A real but not dominant home advantage. The Sharks have played 19 games at Allianz historically with a 53% record — competitive but not threatening.

The Sharks have won three of the last five meetings and the Roosters won the most recent (R6 2026, 34-22 at Optus Stadium). The two 2025 Sharks wins both came at Sharks Stadium — at Allianz, the Roosters have historically had the edge.

Origin lift for the Roosters. Tedesco, Walker, Robson, Radley, Collins and Toia all returning in one week is a six-player upgrade. The Roosters jump to 94% best-17 — their strongest available lineup since R12. That kind of squad reinforcement reliably translates into a meaningful performance bump in week one of their return.

Sharks are full strength too. The Sharks roll into this at 94% best-17 themselves. Both teams have their first-choice spines on the park and their forward packs intact. This is the cleanest matchup of the round in terms of availability.

Underlying ±/G favours the Sharks. Sharks starters average +5.6, Roosters starters -0.1. Some of that Roosters figure is depressed by Origin players whose sample for the season is smaller, but the underlying Sharks edge in starter quality is real. Form adjustment of -12.4 against the Roosters tells the same story.

The deciders are the spine combinations. Walker returns to halfback next to a creative attack and Radley anchors the middle. The Sharks rely on the connection between their senior halves and a forward pack with more genuine impact runners than the Roosters' middle rotation.

Predict margin +2.4 — squarely a coin-flip. Allianz Stadium and the Origin lift carry the model to a narrow Roosters edge. Sharks lead the H2H 3-2 and the season ±/G favours them — this is correctly tipped as Lean Roosters rather than Strong.