Round 17 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Broncos v Roosters

Both Broncos halves out. Roosters 4-1 H2H. Squad ±/G gap +9.0. Strong tip: Roosters by 10.

SavvyPlays · 25 June 2026 · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Friday 26 June · 8:00PM AEST

The Broncos lose BOTH halves on the same week. Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam are out for two weeks each, with Ben Hunt and Thomas Duffy (-11.5 ±/G) stepping into the halves. The Disruption Score of 8.7 against the named squad is one of the largest of the round, and the Roosters arrive with a 4-1 H2H — including the most recent meeting in R9 2026.

Squad starters: Roosters +2.5 ±/G, Broncos -6.5 — a 9.0-point per-game gap. PCS gap -34.4 with the visitors. Predict margin -8.1. Strong tip: Roosters by 10.

SavvyPlays Tip — Strong

01Roosters by 10

Three reasons this is a Strong tip. First, the Broncos lose both starting halves — Reynolds (2wk) and Mam (2wk) — leaving Ben Hunt and Thomas Duffy (-11.5 ±/G across his small sample) to run the team. The Disruption Score against the named squad is 8.7. Second, the Roosters have won four of the last five against the Broncos including the most recent at Allianz in R9 2026 (38-24). Third, squad-quality: Roosters starters +2.5 ±/G against Broncos -6.5, a 9.0-point per-game gap.

The Roosters arrive at 82% Best 17 — they lose Crichton and Tupou but keep the rest of the senior squad. Predict margin -8.1 lands neatly in Strong territory and the call is Roosters by 10.

-8.1

Predict Margin

-6.5

Broncos Squad ±/G

+2.5

Roosters Squad ±/G

+9.0

Squad ±/G Gap

82%

Roosters Best 17

8.7

Broncos DS

-34.4

PCS Gap

1-4

H2H Last 5

Venue & Head-to-Head

02Venue & Head-to-Head

Suncorp Stadium has been a strong home venue for the Broncos in most eras, but the head-to-head against the Roosters has flipped the script. The Roosters' most recent visit to Suncorp produced a 26-16 win in R6 2025, and they won 40-18 in R9 2024 the time before.

The Roosters have won the last four meetings overall — 38-24 at Allianz in R9 2026, 26-16 at Suncorp in R6 2025, 40-18 at Suncorp in R9 2024, and 20-10 at Allegiant Stadium in R1 2024. The Broncos' one win in the last five was a 50-14 result at Allianz in R1 2025 — their only positive recent data point against the visitors.

Year	Round	Match	Score	Winner
2026	R9	Roosters v Broncos	38-24	Roosters
2025	R6	Broncos v Roosters	16-26	Roosters
2025	R1	Roosters v Broncos	14-50	Broncos
2024	R9	Broncos v Roosters	18-40	Roosters
2024	R1	Roosters v Broncos	20-10	Roosters

Named Squads

03Broncos — DS 8.7 — Squad avg ±/G: -6.8

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Reece Walsh	Fullback	10	-8.9
2	Josiah Karapani	Wing	13	-8.6
3	Kotoni Staggs	Centre	11	-0.7
4	Grant Anderson	Centre	4	-9.8
5	Jesse Arthars	Wing	9	-10.8
6	Thomas Duffy	Five-Eighth	4	-11.5
7	Ben Hunt	Halfback	8	-6.9
8	Preston Riki	Prop	6	-9.5
9	Cory Paix	Hooker	13	-3.9
10	Payne Haas	Prop	8	-2.9
11	Brendan Piakura	Second Row	9	-1.8
12	Jordan Riki	Second Row	12	-7.3
13	Xavier Willison	Lock	14	-5.3
14	Blake Mozer	Interchange	1	+6.0
15	Ben Talty	Interchange	14	-5.2
16	Aublix Tawha	Interchange	5	-7.2
17	Jack Gosiewski	Interchange	9	+0.3

Out: Adam Reynolds (halfback, 2wk), Ezra Mam (five-eighth, 2wk). Ben Hunt and Thomas Duffy step in.

Named Squads

04Roosters — 82% Best 17 — Squad avg ±/G: +5.2

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	James Tedesco	Fullback	13	+7.1
2	Billy Smith	Wing	6	-5.5
3	Hugo Savala	Centre	10	+11.5
4	Robert Toia	Centre	12	+9.7
5	Mark Nawaqanitawase	Wing	9	+7.6
6	Daly Cherry-Evans	Five-Eighth	14	+3.9
7	Sam Walker	Halfback	13	+7.1
8	Naufahu Whyte	Prop	14	+1.3
9	Reece Robson	Hooker	11	+9.1
10	Lindsay Collins	Prop	12	+0.2
11	Nat Butcher	Second Row	13	+5.0
12	Siua Wong	Second Row	14	+4.6
13	Victor Radley	Lock	8	+6.1
14	Connor Watson	Interchange	14	+3.3
15	Spencer Leniu	Interchange	10	+0.4
16	Egan Butcher	Interchange	8	-2.5
17	Salesi Foketi	Interchange	12	-0.9

Out: Angus Crichton and Daniel Tupou unavailable; balance of senior squad named.

Match Analysis

05Key Matchups & Narratives

Both Broncos halves out. Adam Reynolds (halfback, 2wk) and Ezra Mam (five-eighth, 2wk) miss the round. The replacement halves combination of Ben Hunt and Thomas Duffy (-11.5 ±/G in a small sample) loses the kicking game, the leadership and the playmaking ceiling that Reynolds and Mam provide together. Disruption Score 8.7.

Roosters at 82% with the right losses. Angus Crichton and Daniel Tupou are unavailable, but the rest of the senior squad is named. Starters average +2.5 ±/G — a contender-level number against a Broncos starting 13 sitting at -6.5.

PCS gap -34.4. The aggregated Player Contribution Score gap is the second-widest of the round behind Dolphins/Warriors. That is what happens when one squad loses both halves and the other is largely intact.

The H2H tilt is real. Four of the last five to the Roosters, including the most recent two at Suncorp. The Broncos cannot lean on venue history to offset the spine disruption tonight.

Both Halves Out

Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam both miss with two-week absences. Ben Hunt and Thomas Duffy take the halves — a combination with no extended game time together. Disruption Score 8.7 is one of the largest hits to any team's named squad in the round.

Prediction

06Prediction Breakdown

Predict margin -8.1 — squarely in the Strong band when supported by the disruption to the Broncos spine, the H2H trend (4 of 5 to the Roosters), and the 9.0-point per-game gap on starting 13 ±/G. The tip is Roosters by 10.

5-9

Broncos Record

9-5

Roosters Record

82%