Round 21 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Bulldogs v Warriors

Canterbury own a three-game head-to-head streak, but the Warriors lead on ELO (+133), CI/DS (+3.5) and bench PCS (42.6 v 10.7). The 42% Accor record is the risk. Lean tip: Warriors by 9.

SavvyPlays · 23 July 2026 · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Saturday 25 July · 5:30PM AEST

The Bulldogs have won the last three meetings with the Warriors, and ordinarily a live head-to-head streak earns a side the benefit of the doubt. This week the numbers argue the other way. The Warriors grade +7.1 on squad-average ±/G to the Bulldogs' -2.0, their bench PCS of 42.6 towers over Canterbury's 10.7, and the ELO gap is 133 in their favour.

The starting spines are level on PCS at 131.0 apiece, so this game is decided in the margins — depth, consistency and class off the bench, all of which sit with the visitors. The model margin is 9.5 to the Warriors and the CI/DS ledger leans 3.5 their way. After Round 19 showed late-season head-to-head streaks breaking, we lean with the better team. Lean tip: Warriors by 9.

SavvyPlays Tip — Lean

01Warriors by 9

The Bulldogs' argument is the head-to-head: three straight wins over the Warriors, including a 32-14 last year. The model's argument is everything else. A 9.5-point margin, a 133-point ELO gap, a 3.5 CI/DS edge and a bench PCS advantage of 42.6 to 10.7 all belong to the visitors.

The starting 13s are level on PCS at 131.0 each, which is exactly why the bench matters so much here. Canterbury's rotation grades at a quarter of the Warriors', and games this even are won in the last twenty minutes. The one flag is the venue — the Warriors win just 42% of their games at Accor — which is what keeps this a Lean rather than a Strong. Lean tip: Warriors by 9.

Warriors +9.5

Predict Margin

Warriors +133

ELO Gap

Warriors +3.5

CI/DS Edge

Warriors 42.6 · Bulldogs 10.7

Bench PCS

-2.0

Bulldogs Squad ±/G

+7.1

Warriors Squad ±/G

42%

Warriors @ Accor

3-2

H2H (Last 5)

Venue & Head-to-Head

02Venue & Head-to-Head

Canterbury hold a 3-2 record across the last five and, more tellingly, the three most recent all their way: 32-14 in 2025, 34-18 in 2024 and a 13-12 squeaker earlier that year. The Warriors' wins in the sample are older — 24-12 and 16-14 in 2023.

The counter-signal is the venue. The Warriors win only 42% of their games at Accor Stadium, a genuinely poor away deck for them. That is the single strongest reason to hedge a side the model otherwise likes by nine-plus.

Year	Round	Match	Score	Winner
2025	R23	Bulldogs v Warriors	32-14	Bulldogs
2024	R25	Warriors v Bulldogs	18-34	Bulldogs
2024	R18	Bulldogs v Warriors	13-12	Bulldogs
2023	R11	Bulldogs v Warriors	12-24	Warriors
2023	R4	Warriors v Bulldogs	16-14	Warriors

Named Squads

03Bulldogs — Squad avg ±/G: -2.0

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Connor Tracey	Fullback	14	-5.4
2	Jacob Kiraz	Wing	13	+1.4
3	Matt Burton	Centre	16	-2.5
4	Enari Tuala	Centre	13	-0.7
5	Jethro Rinakama	Wing	6	+4.3
6	Stephen Crichton	Five-Eighth	12	-8.2
7	Lachlan Galvin	Halfback	17	-4.1
8	Max King	Prop	13	-2.8
9	Bailey Hayward	Hooker	15	-0.2
10	Leo Thompson	Prop	12	-4.4
11	Viliame Kikau	Second Row	8	-0.6
12	Jacob Preston	Second Row	13	-5.6
13	Jaeman Salmon	Lock	17	-2.6
14	Sean O'Sullivan	Interchange	6	-2.3
15	Josh Curran	Interchange	11	+3.3
16	Harry Hayes	Interchange	14	-2.9
17	Lipoi Hopoi	Interchange	6	-3.3

Out: Squad-average ±/G of -2.0 and a starting spine that grades below the visitors. Bronson Xerri (-6.5) named in the reserves.

Named Squads

04Warriors — Squad avg ±/G: +7.1

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Taine Tuaupiki	Fullback	16	+11.5
2	Dallin Watene-Zelezniak	Wing	16	+10.6
3	Ali Leiataua	Centre	13	+15.2
4	Adam Pompey	Centre	12	+9.5
5	Alofiana Khan-Pereira	Wing	9	+9.3
6	Chanel Harris-Tavita	Five-Eighth	14	+12.4
7	Maire Martin	Halfback	—	—
8	James Fisher-Harris	Prop	14	+7.7
9	Wayde Egan	Hooker	17	+10.5
10	Mitchell Barnett	Prop	8	+5.5
11	Kurt Capewell	Second Row	7	+14.6
12	Jacob Laban	Second Row	16	+9.2
13	Erin Clark	Lock	17	+8.0
14	Sam Healey	Interchange	15	+2.8
15	Tanner Stowers-Smith	Interchange	12	+5.8
16	Demitric Vaimauga	Interchange	16	+8.2
17	Leka Halasima	Interchange	13	+7.2

Out: Warriors name a +7.1 squad-average sheet with a bench (PCS 42.6) that dwarfs the home rotation. The 42% record at Accor is the one caveat.

Match Analysis

05Key Matchups & Narratives

The Warriors' strength is a deep, in-form roster. Taine Tuaupiki (+11.5) is flying at fullback, Ali Leiataua (+15.2) and Chanel Harris-Tavita (+12.4) drive the left, and the forward pack through Erin Clark (+8.0), Jacob Laban (+9.2) and James Fisher-Harris (+7.7) is uniformly in credit. The bench adds Demitric Vaimauga (+8.2) and Leka Halasima (+7.2).

Canterbury's sheet is a study in near-misses: Stephen Crichton (-8.2) has been below his best, Lachlan Galvin (-4.1) and Connor Tracey (-5.4) are in the red, and Jacob Kiraz (+1.4) is the only edge in credit. The starting spine grades level with the Warriors on PCS, but the supporting cast does not.

The bench is the sharpest divide — 42.6 to 10.7 on PCS. In a game the starters cannot separate, a four-to-one edge in the final rotation is the difference-maker, and it is why the model likes the Warriors despite the H2H.

Backing the Better Team

Round 19 was a reminder that late-season head-to-head streaks tend to break when the underlying gap is real. Canterbury have won three straight in this fixture, but the Warriors lead on ELO (+133), CI/DS (+3.5) and bench PCS (42.6 v 10.7). We lean with the better team — tempered to a Lean by the Warriors' 42% record at Accor.

Prediction

06Prediction Breakdown

The model margin is 9.5 to the Warriors, supported by a 133-point ELO gap, a 3.5 CI/DS edge and a decisive bench-PCS advantage. The Bulldogs' three-game head-to-head streak and the Warriors' 42% Accor record are the reasons to hold this at a Lean rather than pushing it further. Lean tip: Warriors by 9.

8-9

Bulldogs Record

12-5

Warriors Record