Round 21 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Cowboys v Broncos

The Broncos own the H2H (4-1) and a 67% record in Townsville, but the model likes the Cowboys by 5.5 with a +11.7 PCS edge. CI/DS is level. Lean tip: Cowboys by 5.

SavvyPlays · 23 July 2026 · Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville · Saturday 25 July · 7:35PM AEST

This Queensland derby is a genuine coin-flip dressed up as a mismatch. The Broncos have won four of the last five meetings and hold a 67% record at Queensland Country Bank Stadium — remarkably, the away side has owned the Cowboys' own deck. Yet the model still favours the home team by 5.5, and the PCS ledger leans 11.7 to the Cowboys.

The two squads grade almost level on ±/G — Cowboys -7.9, Broncos -6.3 — and the CI/DS ledger is dead even. Brisbane arrive fresh off an upset of the Panthers but lose Piakura. On balance we side with the home team and the model, while respecting a strong Broncos H2H and venue record. Lean tip: Cowboys by 5.

SavvyPlays Tip — Lean

01Cowboys by 5

The home case is the model and the PCS sheet: a 5.5-point margin and an 11.7 PCS edge to the Cowboys, plus a 10-8 record that sits four wins clear of Brisbane's 6-11. On the ladder and on paper this should be North Queensland's game.

The away case is history and the venue. The Broncos have won four of the last five in this derby and win 67% of their trips to Townsville — an unusual road hold on the Cowboys' home ground. They also arrive off a genuine statement, an upset of the Panthers, though they lose Piakura. With the squads level on ±/G and CI/DS, we side narrowly with the model and home advantage. Lean tip: Cowboys by 5.

Cowboys +5.5

Predict Margin

Cowboys +11.7

PCS Gap

Level

CI/DS Edge

67%

Broncos @ QCB

-7.9

Cowboys Squad ±/G

-6.3

Broncos Squad ±/G

1-4

H2H (Last 5)

Venue & Head-to-Head

02Venue & Head-to-Head

Brisbane have dominated the recent derby: 26-16 and 38-30 in 2025 and a 38-12 and 42-18 pair in 2024. The Cowboys' one win in the sample is the most recent — a 35-31 thriller in Round 6 this season, which is the thread the home side will cling to.

The venue story is unusual. The Broncos win 67% of their games at Queensland Country Bank Stadium — the Cowboys' own fortress has been anything but against Brisbane. It is the strongest reason to keep faith in a lower-ranked visitor.

Year	Round	Match	Score	Winner
2026	R6	Broncos v Cowboys	31-35	Cowboys
2025	R26	Cowboys v Broncos	30-38	Broncos
2025	R3	Broncos v Cowboys	26-16	Broncos
2024	R23	Cowboys v Broncos	18-42	Broncos
2024	R4	Broncos v Cowboys	38-12	Broncos

Named Squads

03Cowboys — Squad avg ±/G: -7.9

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Scott Drinkwater	Fullback	1	-12.0
2	Braidon Burns	Wing	13	-2.6
3	Jaxon Purdue	Centre	1	-12.0
4	Tom Chester	Centre	1	-12.0
5	Murray Taulagi	Wing	1	-8.0
6	Jake Clifford	Five-Eighth	1	-12.0
7	Tom Dearden	Halfback	1	-12.0
8	Thomas Mikaele	Prop	1	-8.0
9	Reed Mahoney	Hooker	1	-12.0
10	Jason Taumalolo	Prop	1	-8.0
11	Heilum Luki	Second Row	1	-12.0
12	Jeremiah Nanai	Second Row	1	-14.0
13	Reuben Cotter	Lock	1	-12.0
14	Soni Luke	Interchange	1	+0.0
15	Griffin Neame	Interchange	1	-4.0
16	Matthew Lodge	Interchange	1	-12.0
17	Coen Hess	Interchange	1	+4.0

Out: Most Cowboys starters carry a single game of ±/G data — treat the squad numbers as a small, noisy sample rather than a read on form.

Named Squads

04Broncos — Squad avg ±/G: -6.3

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Reece Walsh	Fullback	12	-7.8
2	Josiah Karapani	Wing	15	-7.7
3	Kotoni Staggs	Centre	14	-1.7
4	Gehamat Shibasaki	Centre	13	-7.0
5	Deine Mariner	Wing	11	-1.4
6	Ezra Mam	Five-Eighth	15	-3.2
7	Adam Reynolds	Halfback	12	-6.3
8	Preston Riki	Prop	9	-8.6
9	Cory Paix	Hooker	16	-4.1
10	Payne Haas	Prop	10	-2.3
11	Xavier Willison	Second Row	17	-5.3
12	Jordan Riki	Second Row	15	-6.9
13	Patrick Carrigan	Lock	11	-6.4
14	Ben Hunt	Interchange	11	-6.1
15	Ben Talty	Interchange	17	-4.3
16	Va'a Semu	Interchange	7	-4.6
17	Grant Anderson	Interchange	6	-9.5

Out: Piakura out (new) thins the edge rotation. The Broncos name a -6.3 squad-average sheet a week on from upsetting the Panthers.

Match Analysis

05Key Matchups & Narratives

A read on the Cowboys' squad numbers comes with a health warning: most of their named starters carry only a single game of ±/G data, so the sheet looks worse — and noisier — than a side that has gone 10-8. Tom Dearden's name at halfback is the steadying presence, and the deeper-sampled contributors like Braidon Burns (-2.6) sit far closer to the line than the one-game reads suggest.

Brisbane's sheet is more settled and only marginally worse on average. Kotoni Staggs (-1.7) and Deine Mariner (-1.4) are the pick of the outside backs, Payne Haas (-2.3) leads the middle, and Ezra Mam (-3.2) and Adam Reynolds (-6.3) steer. The loss of Piakura thins the edge rotation.

This is two flawed but capable Queensland sides separated by very little. The model and home ground nudge it to the Cowboys; the derby history and the venue record are why the confidence stays at a Lean.

Small-Sample Caution

Several Cowboys starters appear on the sheet with just one game of ±/G data, which drags the squad average to -7.9 and overstates how poorly the side is tracking. The PCS ledger — a more stable measure — still favours North Queensland by 11.7, which is the read we trust here.

Prediction

06Prediction Breakdown

The model margin is 5.5 to the Cowboys, backed by an 11.7 PCS edge and home advantage, with the squads level on ±/G and CI/DS. The Broncos' 4-1 head-to-head and 67% record in Townsville are real and keep this honest — enough to hold the tip at a Lean rather than a Strong. Lean tip: Cowboys by 5.

10-8

Cowboys Record

6-11

Broncos Record