Round 21 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Dragons v Titans

A coin-flip model line (Titans -0.9) between two strugglers. The Dragons' 64% Jubilee record, a 3-2 recent H2H and a +3.2 CI/DS edge tip a thin lean home. Lean tip: Dragons.

SavvyPlays · 23 July 2026 · Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah · Sunday 26 July · 2:00PM AEST

Two of the competition's strugglers meet at Jubilee, and the model cannot separate them — it reads Titans by 0.9, a pure coin flip. Both sides carry grim squad-average ±/G numbers (Dragons -11.7, Titans -5.4) and neither is in anything resembling form.

The lean to the Dragons is built on the trimmings. They have won three of the last five in the fixture, they hold Jubilee at a 64% clip, and the CI/DS ledger sits +3.2 their way, with a Consistency Index (0.563) that just edges the Titans' 0.562. The Titans took the most recent meeting 22-14 and lose AJ Brimson (DS 4.5). On a level model line, home venue and the CI/DS edge tip it. Lean tip: Dragons.

SavvyPlays Tip — Lean

01Lean: Dragons

The model line is Titans by 0.9 — the definition of a coin flip, and a fair reflection of two sides going nowhere. When the number is this thin, we look to the tie-breakers, and they lean home.

The Dragons have won three of the last five in this fixture and win 64% of their games at Jubilee. Their Consistency Index (0.563, Reliable) is marginally the steadier of two volatile sides, and the CI/DS ledger sits +3.2 in their favour — sharpened by the loss of AJ Brimson (DS 4.5) for the Titans. The visitors did take the most recent meeting 22-14, so this is a thin lean, not a confident one. Lean tip: Dragons.

Titans +0.9 (coin flip)

Predict Margin

Dragons +3.2

CI/DS Edge

64%

Jubilee Win Rate

0.563 (Reliable)

Dragons CI

-11.7

Dragons Squad ±/G

-5.4

Titans Squad ±/G

3-2

H2H (Last 5)

Venue & Head-to-Head

02Venue & Head-to-Head

The Dragons have edged the recent series 3-2, winning 38-16 in 2025 and a 32-16 and 28-4 pair in 2024. The Titans' two wins are the bookends — a 20-18 in 2023 and, most importantly, the most recent meeting: a 22-14 in Round 4 this year. The trend is a Dragons edge, but not an unbroken one.

Jubilee remains the Dragons' most reliable asset, returning a 64% win rate. For a 2-15 side that is a meaningful home advantage, and against an equally out-of-sorts Titans it is enough to tip a coin-flip.

Year	Round	Match	Score	Winner
2026	R4	Titans v Dragons	22-14	Titans
2025	R6	Dragons v Titans	38-16	Dragons
2024	R24	Dragons v Titans	32-16	Dragons
2024	R1	Titans v Dragons	4-28	Dragons
2023	R6	Titans v Dragons	20-18	Titans

Named Squads

03Dragons — Squad avg ±/G: -11.7

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Clinton Gutherson	Fullback	14	-10.1
2	Setu Tu	Wing	15	-13.8
3	Mathew Feagai	Centre	12	-11.2
4	Valentine Holmes	Centre	17	-14.5
5	Tyrell Sloan	Wing	8	-14.5
6	Daniel Atkinson	Five-Eighth	16	-11.4
7	Kyle Flanagan	Halfback	14	-8.9
8	Jnr Pasifiki Tonga	Prop	—	—
9	Damien Cook	Hooker	17	-11.6
10	Toby Couchman	Prop	16	-10.6
11	Dylan Egan	Second Row	9	-9.6
12	Hamish Stewart	Second Row	17	-13.1
13	Ryan Couchman	Lock	13	-12.2
14	Jacob Liddle	Interchange	9	-1.8
15	Luciano Leilua	Interchange	14	-7.9
16	Josh Kerr	Interchange	15	-7.2
17	Jacob Halangahu	Interchange	—	—

Out: A -11.7 squad-average sheet, but the Dragons' Consistency Index (0.563, Reliable) is a shade steadier than the Titans'.

Named Squads

04Titans — DS 4.5 — Squad avg ±/G: -5.4

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Keano Kini	Fullback	17	-6.6
2	Dean Ieremia	Wing	2	-5.0
3	Jojo Fifita	Centre	15	-6.4
4	Jaylan De Groot	Centre	3	-9.3
5	Phillip Sami	Wing	17	-6.2
6	Jayden Campbell	Five-Eighth	15	-4.1
7	Zane Harrison	Halfback	9	-6.7
8	Moeaki Fotuaika	Prop	17	-8.2
9	Oliver Pascoe	Hooker	9	-6.7
10	Tino Fa'asuamaleaui	Prop	14	-6.4
11	Arama Hau	Second Row	17	-5.9
12	Beau Fermor	Second Row	17	-6.6
13	Chris Randall	Lock	14	-4.0
14	Kurtis Morrin	Interchange	16	+0.1
15	Josh Patston	Interchange	—	—
16	Klese Haas	Interchange	16	-2.3
17	Cooper Bai	Interchange	16	-1.2

Out: AJ Brimson out (DS 4.5) — Zane Harrison (-6.7) steers with Keano Kini (-6.6) at the back. Titans squad-average ±/G -5.4.

Match Analysis

05Key Matchups & Narratives

There are no good squad numbers here — this is a game between the 15th and 16th on the ladder-adjacent metrics. The Dragons' sheet is uniformly negative, from Clinton Gutherson (-10.1) at the back to a forward pack all in double-digit red. Jacob Liddle (-1.8) off the bench is as close to the line as they get.

The Titans are marginally less battered on average (-5.4), with Chris Randall (-4.0) and Jayden Campbell (-4.1) the steadier reads, but they lose Brimson's spark and lean on Zane Harrison (-6.7) to steer. Keano Kini (-6.6) carries the fullback load.

With both squads this compromised and the model unable to split them, the edges that decide it are consistency, venue and recent head-to-head. Two of those three sit with the Dragons, and their CI is the steadier — which is the whole basis of the lean.

A Lean, Not a Conviction

This is as thin as a tip gets: a coin-flip model line between two strugglers, and the Titans took the most recent meeting. The Dragons get the nod purely on their 64% Jubilee record, a 3-2 recent head-to-head and a +3.2 CI/DS edge. Treat it as a lean, not a lock.

Prediction

06Prediction Breakdown

The model line is Titans by 0.9 — effectively even. The tie goes to the Dragons on a 64% Jubilee record, a 3-2 recent head-to-head, a +3.2 CI/DS edge and the marginally steadier Consistency Index. The Titans' most-recent win and Brimson's quality keep it honest. Lean tip: Dragons.

2-15

Dragons Record

5-12

Titans Record