Knights v Roosters
Five straight to the Roosters, 75% for the visitors at McDonald Jones and a +10.0 model margin. The squads are close but the trends are one-way. Strong tip: Roosters by 10.
SavvyPlays · 23 July 2026 · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Friday 24 July · 6:00PM AEST
Newcastle host the Roosters knowing the ledger is grim: the Tricolours have won the last five meetings, one of only two active five-from-five streaks in the competition. Worse for the home side, McDonald Jones has behaved like a road fortress — the Roosters win 75% of the games they play there.
The squads are close on paper — Roosters +3.3 to Knights +1.7 on squad-average ±/G, and both sides largely intact — but the model, the venue history and the head-to-head all point the same way. The Predict margin is 10.0 to the Roosters and the CI/DS ledger edges 1.4 their way. Strong tip: Roosters by 10.
SavvyPlays Tip — Strong
01Roosters by 10
This is a case where the squad sheets flatter the home side. On raw squad-average ±/G the sides are almost level — Roosters +3.3, Knights +1.7 — but every situational signal favours the visitors. Five straight wins in the fixture, a 75% record at McDonald Jones, a Predict margin of 10.0 and a CI/DS edge of 1.4 all sit with the Roosters.
The Knights lose Dane Gagai but are otherwise close to full strength, and Kalyn Ponga (+8.6) gives them a fullback who can win a tight one. The problem is the Roosters have simply had their number, and with Hugo Savala (+11.2) providing impact off the bench their spine depth is the difference. Strong tip: Roosters by 10.
Venue & Head-to-Head
02Venue & Head-to-Head
The Roosters have won the last five meetings: 38-24 in Round 7 this season, 12-8 in 2025, 22-20 in 2024, 18-16 in 2023 and 42-12 in 2022. Three of the five were four points or fewer — this is a streak built as much on closing out tight games as on blowouts.
That matters at McDonald Jones, where the Roosters win 75% of the time. For a nominal home fixture it plays like anything but, and the Knights have to break a five-game psychological hold to change it.
| Year | Round | Match | Score | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R7 | Roosters v Knights | 38-24 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R15 | Knights v Roosters | 8-12 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R6 | Knights v Roosters | 20-22 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R16 | Knights v Roosters | 16-18 | Roosters |
| 2022 | R19 | Knights v Roosters | 12-42 | Roosters |
Named Squads
03Knights — Squad avg ±/G: +1.7
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | Fullback | 10 | +8.6 |
| 2 | Dominic Young | Wing | 18 | +2.1 |
| 3 | Fletcher Hunt | Centre | 13 | -2.4 |
| 4 | Bradman Best | Centre | 10 | +6.0 |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | Wing | 17 | +3.4 |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | Five-Eighth | 16 | +2.6 |
| 7 | Dylan Brown | Halfback | 14 | +3.6 |
| 8 | Tyson Frizell | Prop | 16 | +1.3 |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | Hooker | 18 | +1.6 |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | Prop | 16 | +3.0 |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | Second Row | 15 | +5.1 |
| 12 | Francis Manuleleua | Second Row | 5 | -4.8 |
| 13 | Mat Croker | Lock | 18 | +3.1 |
| 14 | Sandon Smith | Interchange | 12 | -1.8 |
| 15 | Cody Hopwood | Interchange | 1 | -2.0 |
| 16 | Lachlan Crouch | Interchange | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | Interchange | 9 | +0.8 |
Out: Dane Gagai out — Fletcher Hunt (-2.4) continues in the centres. Otherwise close to full strength.
Named Squads
04Roosters — 82% Best 17 — Squad avg ±/G: +3.3
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | Fullback | 14 | +7.0 |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | Wing | 12 | +8.1 |
| 3 | Billy Smith | Centre | 9 | -0.3 |
| 4 | Robert Toia | Centre | 14 | +9.9 |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | Wing | 12 | +8.2 |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | Five-Eighth | 17 | +4.9 |
| 7 | Sam Walker | Halfback | 15 | +7.1 |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | Prop | 17 | +3.2 |
| 9 | Reece Robson | Hooker | 13 | +8.8 |
| 10 | Spencer Leniu | Prop | 13 | +1.8 |
| 11 | Nat Butcher | Second Row | 15 | +5.3 |
| 12 | Siua Wong | Second Row | 17 | +5.5 |
| 13 | Victor Radley | Lock | 11 | +6.1 |
| 14 | Hugo Savala | Interchange | 13 | +11.2 |
| 15 | Salesi Foketi | Interchange | 15 | +0.3 |
| 16 | Egan Butcher | Interchange | 11 | -1.5 |
| 17 | Connor Watson | Interchange | 17 | +4.0 |
Out: Roosters at 82% Best 17 with Hugo Savala (+11.2) named on the bench — a genuine impact interchange rather than a starter.
Match Analysis
05Key Matchups & Narratives
The Knights' case rests on their spine and their edges. Ponga (+8.6) is the difference-maker, Dylan Brown (+3.6) and Fletcher Sharpe (+2.6) steer, and Dominic Young (+2.1) and Bradman Best (+6.0) carry the strike out wide. It is a competitive top 13.
The Roosters answer with depth and a fullback of their own in James Tedesco (+7.0). Robert Toia (+9.9) is the standout in the centres, Reece Robson (+8.8) and Mark Nawaqanitawase (+8.2) tilt the middle and the wing, and the bench headed by Savala (+11.2) and Connor Watson (+4.0) keeps the pressure on through the middle third.
With the two 13s so evenly matched, the game likely turns on the trends the numbers do not fully capture — a five-game hold and a 75% venue record. Both belong to the Roosters.
McDonald Jones is supposed to be a Knights stronghold, but the Roosters win 75% of their trips there and have taken the last five meetings outright. When the squads are this close, a venue and head-to-head edge that lopsided is what tips a coin-flip into a clear lean.
Prediction
06Prediction Breakdown
The model margin is 10.0 to the Roosters. The squad-average gap is slim, but a five-game head-to-head streak, a 75% record at the venue and a 1.4 CI/DS edge all reinforce the model rather than fight it. The Knights are good enough to threaten if it stays tight, which is why the tip is 10 and not more. Strong tip: Roosters by 10.
Data & Methodology
Team records and match data sourced from official NRL data. Player ±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) and squad PCS (Player Contribution Score) are SavvyPlays analytics metrics derived from play-by-play timeline data. Disruption Score (DS) measures the quality-weighted impact of missing players. Best 17 percentage reflects the proportion of a team's optimal lineup named. All figures accurate as of R21 teamlist announcement, 23 July 2026.
SavvyPlays — NRL Analytics & Tipping · © 2026