Round 21 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Rabbitohs v Storm

The model says coin flip, but the Storm are at 59% Best 17 with Wishart and Toelau in the halves. With both sides disrupted, the CI/DS ledger (+3.3 Souths) breaks the tie. Lean tip: Rabbitohs.

SavvyPlays · 23 July 2026 · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Friday 24 July · 8:00PM AEST

On name value this is a Storm side to respect — they have won four of the last five meetings. On the team sheet handed in this week it is a very different Melbourne. Munster is two weeks away, Warbrick is a late out, Lisati and Blore are unavailable, and the halves read Tyran Wishart (-2.2) and Trent Toelau (-7.7). The Storm grade at just 59% Best 17, a Disruption Score of 8.0.

The model still calls it a coin flip — Storm by 0.7 — because class lingers. But when both sides are disrupted, our rule is to trust the CI/DS ledger, and that leans 3.3 to Souths. South Sydney lose Cameron Murray (DS 3.0) but field a far more settled seventeen. Lean tip: Rabbitohs.

SavvyPlays Tip — Lean

01Lean: Rabbitohs

The blended model lands on Storm by 0.7 — as close to even as the engine gets. That number bakes in Melbourne's brand and their 4-1 head-to-head record, and it still cannot separate the sides. The tie-breaker is the state of the two squads.

This is a heavily disrupted Storm: no Munster, no Warbrick, 59% Best 17 and a makeshift halves pairing in Wishart (-2.2) and Toelau (-7.7). Rule 11 in our framework is explicit — when both teams are disrupted, trust CI/DS — and that ledger sits 3.3 with the Rabbitohs, who cover Murray's absence far more comfortably. On a level model line, the healthier roster and the home deck tip it. Lean tip: Rabbitohs.

Storm +0.7 (coin flip)

Predict Margin

Rabbitohs +3.3

CI/DS Edge

59% (DS 8.0)

Storm Best 17

59%

Rabbitohs @ Accor

+3.3

Rabbitohs Squad ±/G

-2.7

Storm Squad ±/G

1-4

H2H (Last 5)

Venue & Head-to-Head

02Venue & Head-to-Head

Melbourne have owned the recent series, winning four of the last five: 25-24 and 24-16 in 2025, 28-16 in 2024 and a 54-20 rout earlier that year. The exception is the most recent meeting — a 48-6 South Sydney demolition in Round 8 this season, a reminder of what a full-strength Rabbitohs can do.

Souths win 59% of their games at Accor Stadium. It is not a fortress, but combined with a badly weakened opponent it is enough of a platform to back the home side in a game the model cannot split.

Year	Round	Match	Score	Winner
2026	R8	Storm v Rabbitohs	6-48	Rabbitohs
2025	R16	Rabbitohs v Storm	24-25	Storm
2025	R8	Storm v Rabbitohs	24-16	Storm
2024	R23	Rabbitohs v Storm	16-28	Storm
2024	R8	Storm v Rabbitohs	54-20	Storm

Named Squads

03Rabbitohs — DS 3.0 — Squad avg ±/G: +3.3

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Matthew Dufty	Fullback	7	+4.9
2	Alex Johnston	Wing	14	+8.4
3	Latrell Siegwalt	Centre	5	+2.8
4	Jack Wighton	Centre	11	+2.7
5	Campbell Graham	Wing	12	+3.7
6	Cody Walker	Five-Eighth	16	+5.2
7	Ashton Ward	Halfback	10	+1.8
8	Tevita Tatola	Prop	17	+1.6
9	Brandon Smith	Hooker	9	+1.8
10	Keaon Koloamatangi	Prop	17	+3.2
11	David Fifita	Second Row	11	+1.3
12	Euan Aitken	Second Row	13	+4.3
13	Lachlan Hubner	Lock	16	+5.2
14	Jayden Sullivan	Interchange	9	+5.3
15	Jye Gray	Interchange	13	+3.4
16	Liam Le Blanc	Interchange	4	+3.0
17	Jamie Humphreys	Interchange	12	+5.0

Out: Cameron Murray out (DS 3.0). Manageable next to what the Storm are missing.

Named Squads

04Storm — 59% Best 17 (DS 8.0) — Squad avg ±/G: -2.7

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Sualauvi Faalogo	Fullback	18	-0.6
2	Siulagi Tuimalatu-Brown	Wing	2	-20.0
3	Jack Howarth	Centre	15	+4.0
4	Nick Meaney	Centre	14	-1.3
5	Moses Leo	Wing	11	+6.0
6	Tyran Wishart	Five-Eighth	11	-2.2
7	Jahrome Hughes	Halfback	15	+2.8
8	Stefano Utoikamanu	Prop	18	+2.8
9	Harry Grant	Hooker	17	+0.5
10	Josh King	Prop	18	+1.4
11	Cooper Clarke	Second Row	18	-4.9
12	Oryn Keeley	Second Row	2	-7.0
13	Trent Loiero	Lock	15	-4.0
14	Trent Toelau	Interchange	7	-7.7
15	Alec MacDonald	Interchange	14	-5.9
16	Angus Hinchey	Interchange	—	—
17	Jack Hetherington	Interchange	8	+0.0

Out: Munster (2wk), Warbrick, Lisati and Blore all absent — Storm at 59% Best 17 (DS 8.0) with Tyran Wishart (-2.2) and Trent Toelau (-7.7) in the halves.

Match Analysis

05Key Matchups & Narratives

Even without Murray, Souths field a functional spine and a live back five. Alex Johnston (+8.4) remains a finisher, Cody Walker (+5.2) and Lachlan Hubner (+5.2) hold their edges, and the middle rotation through Keaon Koloamatangi (+3.2) and Tevita Tatola (+1.6) is intact. The squad-average ±/G reads +3.3.

The Storm's issue is the spine and the wings. Wishart (-2.2) and Toelau (-7.7) are covering for Munster, Jahrome Hughes (+2.8) carries the playmaking load almost alone, and rookie wingers dot the sheet with heavily negative small-sample numbers. Harry Grant (+0.5) and Stefano Utoikamanu (+2.8) keep them competitive through the middle, but the class Melbourne usually rely on out wide is missing.

This is precisely the profile the CI/DS rule was built for: two disrupted rosters, a model that cannot separate them, and a consistency-and-disruption ledger that tilts clearly to one side. Here it tilts to Souths.

Rule 11 — Trust CI/DS When Both Are Down

When both teams are disrupted and the model line is inside a converted try, we defer to the Consistency Index and Disruption Score ledger rather than the raw margin. It sits +3.3 to the Rabbitohs, driven by a Storm side at 59% Best 17 and a DS of 8.0. That is the lean.

Prediction

06Prediction Breakdown

The model margin is Storm by 0.7 — a coin flip that reflects Melbourne's reputation more than this week's team sheet. With the Storm at 59% Best 17 and improvised halves, and the CI/DS ledger leaning 3.3 to Souths, the healthier roster at home is the side to be with — at Lean confidence, because the model refuses to commit. Lean tip: Rabbitohs.

9-8

Rabbitohs Record

8-10

Storm Record