Round 22 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Broncos v Knights

SavvyPlays · Saturday 01 August 2026 · Suncorp Stadium · 19:35 AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Broncos n=18, Knights n=19). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Broncos

Metric

Knights

WOODEN SPOON RACE

Motivation

MUST-WIN

Wins to Finals

18.8

Points For / G

25.3

26.2

Points Against / G

23.4

1,403m

Run Metres / G

1,573m

3.3

Tries / G

4.5

78.1%

Completion %

75.4%

5.7

Penalties Conceded / G

4.7

4.6

Six Agains / G

3.2

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Broncos

Metric

Knights

6-12-0#14

Season Record

#611-8-0

2-7-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games4-5-0 (A)

22.7Home · #11

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #328.7

26.1Home · #12

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #723.6

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Broncos

Metric

Knights

7-10-0 (41%)

2026 Season — All

11-7-0 (61%)

3-6-0 (33%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

7-2-0 (78%)

4-4-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

4-5-0 (44%)

Current Streak

22-21-1 (51%)

2025-26 — All

19-23-0 (45%)

12-10-0 (55%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

10-11-0 (48%)

10-11-1 (48%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

9-12-0 (43%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Broncos

Metric

Knights

7-9-0 (44%)

2026 Season — All

9-8-0 (53%)

4-5-0 (44%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

5-4-0 (56%)

3-4-0 (43%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

4-4-0 (50%)

Current Streak

20-23-0 (47%)

2025-26 — All

17-24-0 (41%)

11-11-0 (50%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

8-13-0 (38%)

9-12-0 (43%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

9-11-0 (45%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Broncos

Metric

Knights

8.0

1H Avg For

15.3

15.7

1H Avg Against

11.6

-7.7

1H Net

+3.7

80%

1H Win → Match Win

88%

12.1

2H Avg For

12.7

12.1

2H Avg Against

14.0

+0.0

2H Net

-1.3

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Broncos

Metric

Knights

130.5#14 Δ +0.5

Squad PCS

#6 Δ -4.9162.1

32.1#14 Δ +2.2

Spine PCS

#9 Δ -0.542.9

34.1#10 Δ -0.5

Forwards PCS

#13 Δ -1.933.7

56.5#12 Δ -0.5

Backs PCS

#3 Δ -0.978.0

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Broncos

Metric

Knights

7/18 (39%)

Scored first try — All games

10/19 (53%)

5/9 (56%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

4/9 (44%)

11/18 (61%)

Conceded first try — All games

9/19 (47%)

4/9 (44%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

5/9 (56%)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Scored first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

2 (H:1 A:1)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

4 (H:3 A:1)

2 (H:1 A:1)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

3 (H:3 A:0)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

3 (H:0 A:3)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

3 (H:0 A:3)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

3 (H:2 A:1)

1 (H:0 A:1)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

3 (H:1 A:2)

7 (H:4 A:3)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

3 (H:1 A:2)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Broncos

Metric

Knights

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Broncos

Metric

Knights

0.557

Overall CI

0.551

0.566

Defensive CI

0.560

16.3

Margin SD

16.7

2.1

Disruption

7.7

76%

Best-17 %

82%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Broncos — 76% Best 17 (DS 2.1) — Squad avg ±/G: -5.3

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Reece Walsh	Fullback	13	-7.8
2	Josiah Karapani	Wing	16	-7.8
3	Kotoni Staggs	Centre	15	-2.1
4	Deine Mariner	Centre	12	-1.9
5	Grant Anderson	Wing	6	-9.5
6	Ezra Mam	Five-Eighth	16	-3.5
7	Adam Reynolds	Halfback	13	-5.8
8	Va'a Semu	Prop	8	-5.0
9	Cory Paix	Hooker	17	-4.4
10	Payne Haas	Prop	11	-2.1
11	Xavier Willison	Second Row	18	-5.4
12	Jordan Riki	Second Row	16	-7.0
13	Patrick Carrigan	Lock	12	-6.5
14	Billy Walters	Interchange	1	+4.0
15	Ben Talty	Interchange	18	-4.5
16	Jaiyden Hunt	Interchange	3	-13.3
17	Ben Hunt	Interchange	12	-6.1

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026.

Named Squads

11Knights — 82% Best 17 (DS 7.7) — Squad avg ±/G: +1.8

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Kalyn Ponga	Fullback	10	+8.6
2	Dominic Young	Wing	19	+1.9
3	Dane Gagai	Centre	18	+2.1
4	Bradman Best	Centre	11	+5.4
5	Greg Marzhew	Wing	18	+3.1
6	Fletcher Sharpe	Five-Eighth	17	+2.4
7	Sandon Smith	Halfback	12	-1.8
8	Cody Hopwood	Prop	1	-2.0
9	Phoenix Crossland	Hooker	19	+1.5
10	Trey Mooney	Prop	17	+2.6
11	Jermaine McEwen	Second Row	15	+1.3
12	Francis Manuleleua	Second Row	6	-4.5
13	Mat Croker	Lock	19	+3.2
14	Harrison Graham	Interchange	13	+1.1
15	Tyson Frizell	Interchange	17	+1.5
16	Thomas Cant	Interchange	10	+0.8
17	Brodie Jones	Interchange	2	+6.5

Broncos — Recent Form

12Broncos — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R21	Cowboys	A	10-18	L	-8	—	—	—	—
2026 R20	Panthers	A	14-12	W	+2	+12.5	W	44.5	U
2026 R18	Sharks	H	16-28	L	-12	+6.5	L	48.5	U
2026 R17	Roosters	H	18-24	L	-6	+7.5	W	48.5	U
2026 R15	Rabbitohs	A	6-48	L	-42	+7.5	L	49.5	O

Knights — Recent Form

13Knights — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R21	Roosters	H	22-23	L	-1	—	—	—	—
2026 R20	Sharks	A	18-20	L	-2	+8.5	W	44.0	U
2026 R19	Rabbitohs	A	24-26	L	-2	-2.5	L	48.0	O
2026 R18	Dolphins	H	13-12	W	+1	+1.5	W	49.0	U
2026 R17	Wests Tigers	H	12-6	W	+6	-9.5	L	49.5	U

Broncos — Try Scoring

14Broncos — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
K.Staggs	Centre	8	2	2	3	2	2	1	6 / 2
J.Karapani	Wing	6	—	1	0	3	1	2	3 / 3
R.Walsh	Fullback	5	2	—	2	0	2	1	3 / 2
X.Willison	Second Row	5	—	1	0	1	2	2	2 / 3
J.Arthars	Interchange	5	—	1	0	1	3	1	4 / 1
J.Riki	Second Row	4	1	—	1	0	2	1	0 / 4
E.Mam	Five-Eighth	4	—	1	0	0	3	1	2 / 2
G.Shibasaki	Centre	3	1	—	1	0	1	1	2 / 1
D.Mariner	Wing	3	—	—	0	2	0	1	2 / 1
A.Reynolds	Halfback	3	—	—	0	1	2	0	1 / 2

Knights — Try Scoring

15Knights — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
G.Marzhew	Wing	17	2	2	3	6	3	5	8 / 9
D.Young	Wing	16	1	3	3	3	5	5	4 / 12
D.Lucas	Second Row	10	2	—	3	5	2	0	6 / 4
F.Hunt	Centre	8	1	—	2	4	0	2	3 / 5
F.Sharpe	Fullback	7	2	—	4	2	0	1	4 / 3
T.Mooney	Prop	5	1	3	2	0	0	3	3 / 2
K.Ponga	Fullback	4	1	—	1	1	0	2	0 / 4
B.Best	Centre	4	—	2	0	1	1	2	3 / 1
P.Crossland	Hooker	2	—	—	0	1	1	0	2 / 0
D.Gagai	Centre	2	—	—	0	0	1	1	0 / 2

SavvyPlays Tips — Lean

16The Call

Knights by 1

Lean · WOODEN SPOON RACE v MUST-WIN

Win

Knights +5.5

predicted Broncos margin -1 vs line -5.5

ATS

—

held for model validation

Over / Under

Knights Backs

HIGH · 2.26/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Broncos (vs Knights defence)
1	Backs	1.17	1.74	1.45 HIGH
2	Spine	0.83	1.37	1.10 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.72	0.84	0.78 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.56	0.26	0.41 LOW
Attacking Knights (vs Broncos defence)
1	Backs	2.47	2.06	2.26 HIGH
2	Spine	0.84	1.39	1.12 MODERATE
3	Forwards	1.00	0.44	0.72 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.21	0.39	0.30 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Knights Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.26/game (Knights backs score 2.47/game; Broncos concede to the backs at 2.06/game).

The model margin here is inside two points, which sits in the no-override band: no signal is allowed to overturn the call, and the confidence stays at Lean accordingly.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.