Round 22 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Cowboys v Roosters

SavvyPlays · Thursday 30 July 2026 · Queensland Country Bank Stadium · 19:50 AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Cowboys n=19, Roosters n=18). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Cowboys

Metric

Roosters

MUST-WIN

Motivation

TOP 4 BATTLE

Wins to Finals

23.3

Points For / G

24.9

24.7

Points Against / G

20.2

1,639m

Run Metres / G

1,653m

4.2

Tries / G

4.5

75.4%

Completion %

74.6%

5.3

Penalties Conceded / G

5.1

5.2

Six Agains / G

3.5

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Cowboys

Metric

Roosters

11-8-0#6

Season Record

#213-5-0

6-3-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games6-3-0 (A)

25.3Home · #7

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #826.0

25.0Home · #11

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #622.4

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Cowboys

Metric

Roosters

10-8-0 (56%)

2026 Season — All

8-9-0 (47%)

5-3-0 (62%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

4-4-0 (50%)

5-5-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

4-5-0 (44%)

Current Streak

23-19-0 (55%)

2025-26 — All

21-21-0 (50%)

12-8-0 (60%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

11-10-0 (52%)

11-11-0 (50%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

10-11-0 (48%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Cowboys

Metric

Roosters

7-10-0 (41%)

2026 Season — All

8-9-0 (47%)

2-6-0 (25%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

5-3-0 (62%)

5-4-0 (56%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

3-6-0 (33%)

Current Streak

21-20-0 (51%)

2025-26 — All

23-19-0 (55%)

9-11-0 (45%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

10-11-0 (48%)

12-9-0 (57%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

13-8-0 (62%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Cowboys

Metric

Roosters

13.6

1H Avg For

12.0

12.9

1H Avg Against

11.3

+0.7

1H Net

+0.7

88%

1H Win → Match Win

100%

10.6

2H Avg For

13.7

13.1

2H Avg Against

10.6

-2.5

2H Net

+3.1

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Cowboys

Metric

Roosters

154.5#10 Δ -4.1

Squad PCS

#3 Δ +0.1175.0

50.1#4 Δ -2.9

Spine PCS

#6 Δ +1.647.1

32.2#15 Δ +0.6

Forwards PCS

#8 Δ -0.035.8

60.2#9 Δ -2.3

Backs PCS

#5 Δ -0.374.1

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Cowboys

Metric

Roosters

9/19 (47%)

Scored first try — All games

12/18 (67%)

6/9 (67%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

4/9 (44%)

9/19 (47%)

Conceded first try — All games

6/18 (33%)

3/9 (33%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

5/9 (56%)

1 (H:0 A:1)

Scored first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

4 (H:2 A:2)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

4 (H:2 A:2)

1 (H:1 A:0)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

3 (H:3 A:0)

4 (H:3 A:1)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

5 (H:3 A:2)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

2 (H:0 A:2)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

3 (H:0 A:3)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

7 (H:3 A:4)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

1 (H:0 A:1)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Cowboys

Metric

Roosters

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Cowboys

Metric

Roosters

0.538

Overall CI

0.509

0.547

Defensive CI

0.547

17.6

Margin SD

21.4

10.3

Disruption

4.5

71%

Best-17 %

71%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Cowboys — 71% Best 17 (DS 10.3) — Squad avg ±/G: -0.8

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Scott Drinkwater	Fullback	19	-2.1
2	Braidon Burns	Wing	15	-1.1
3	Zac Laybutt	Centre	13	-3.8
4	Tom Chester	Centre	18	-1.8
5	Murray Taulagi	Wing	14	-2.5
6	Jake Clifford	Five-Eighth	19	-1.5
7	Jaxon Purdue	Halfback	19	-1.5
8	Thomas Mikaele	Prop	16	+2.2
9	Soni Luke	Hooker	13	-0.2
10	Jason Taumalolo	Prop	18	-0.4
11	Heilum Luki	Second Row	19	-1.5
12	Jeremiah Nanai	Second Row	7	+0.7
13	Reuben Cotter	Lock	16	+2.6
14	Ethan King	Interchange	2	-3.0
16	Matthew Lodge	Interchange	14	-2.1
17	Coen Hess	Interchange	19	-3.5

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026.

Named Squads

11Roosters — 71% Best 17 (DS 4.5) — Squad avg ±/G: +5.0

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	James Tedesco	Fullback	15	+6.6
2	Tommy Talau	Wing	2	-9.5
3	Hugo Savala	Centre	14	+10.7
4	Robert Toia	Centre	15	+9.3
5	Mark Nawaqanitawase	Wing	13	+7.6
6	Daly Cherry-Evans	Five-Eighth	18	+4.7
7	Sam Walker	Halfback	16	+6.7
8	Naufahu Whyte	Prop	18	+3.2
9	Reece Robson	Hooker	14	+8.2
10	Spencer Leniu	Prop	14	+1.5
11	Nat Butcher	Second Row	16	+5.0
12	Siua Wong	Second Row	18	+5.3
13	Victor Radley	Lock	12	+5.8
14	Connor Watson	Interchange	17	+4.0
15	Salesi Foketi	Interchange	16	+0.2
16	Egan Butcher	Interchange	12	-1.0
17	Taylor Losalu	Interchange	1	+0.0

Cowboys — Recent Form

12Cowboys — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R21	Broncos	H	18-10	W	+8	—	—	—	—
2026 R20	Dolphins	A	16-36	L	-20	+3.5	L	50.0	O
2026 R19	Sea Eagles	A	19-18	W	+1	+6.5	W	48.0	U
2026 R17	Panthers	H	26-12	W	+14	+13.5	W	49.5	U
2026 R16	Warriors	A	20-38	L	-18	+7.5	L	50.5	O

Roosters — Recent Form

13Roosters — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R21	Knights	A	23-22	W	+1	—	—	—	—
2026 R20	Storm	H	14-6	W	+8	-11.5	L	44.5	U
2026 R19	Eels	H	28-12	W	+16	-10.5	W	48.5	U
2026 R17	Broncos	A	24-18	W	+6	-7.5	L	48.5	U
2026 R16	Sharks	H	27-8	W	+19	-3.5	W	49.5	U

Cowboys — Try Scoring

14Cowboys — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
B.Burns	Wing	12	—	2	1	4	3	4	3 / 9
M.Taulagi	Wing	11	2	—	4	3	3	1	8 / 3
S.Drinkwater	Fullback	9	2	—	2	5	0	2	2 / 7
H.Luki	Second Row	8	1	3	2	1	0	5	5 / 3
J.Clifford	Five-Eighth	7	1	3	1	2	0	4	5 / 2
T.Chester	Centre	7	1	—	2	1	1	3	4 / 3
J.Purdue	Halfback	6	—	—	1	3	2	0	2 / 4
J.Nanai	Second Row	4	—	1	1	1	0	2	2 / 2
R.Mahoney	Hooker	3	—	—	0	2	1	0	3 / 0
T.Dearden	Halfback	2	1	—	1	0	0	1	1 / 1

Roosters — Try Scoring

15Roosters — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
M.Nawaqanitawase	Wing	12	1	3	4	2	2	4	5 / 7
D.Tupou	Wing	12	—	2	1	2	2	7	7 / 5
R.Toia	Centre	9	2	1	2	4	2	1	5 / 4
J.Tedesco	Fullback	9	1	1	2	1	4	2	4 / 5
B.Smith	Centre	8	1	—	1	3	2	2	3 / 5
S.Walker	Halfback	6	1	1	2	2	1	1	2 / 4
H.Savala	Interchange	6	—	1	1	2	2	1	5 / 1
D.Cherry-Evans	Five-Eighth	4	2	—	2	0	1	1	2 / 2
S.Wong	Second Row	3	2	—	3	0	0	0	2 / 1
R.Robson	Hooker	3	—	1	0	1	1	1	1 / 2

SavvyPlays Tips — Lean

16The Call

Roosters by 7

Lean · MUST-WIN v TOP 4 BATTLE

Win

Roosters -4.5

predicted Cowboys margin -7 vs line +4.5

ATS

—

held for model validation

Over / Under

Roosters Backs

HIGH · 2.35/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Cowboys (vs Roosters defence)
1	Backs	1.68	1.56	1.62 HIGH
2	Spine	1.53	1.00	1.26 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.74	0.67	0.70 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.21	0.28	0.24 LOW
Attacking Roosters (vs Cowboys defence)
1	Backs	2.28	2.42	2.35 HIGH
2	Spine	1.22	1.11	1.16 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.44	0.58	0.51 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.56	0.37	0.46 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Roosters Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.35/game (Roosters backs score 2.28/game; Cowboys concede to the backs at 2.42/game).

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.