Round 22 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Dragons v Dolphins

SavvyPlays · Friday 31 July 2026 · WIN Stadium · 18:00 AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Dragons n=18, Dolphins n=18). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Dragons

Metric

Dolphins

WOODEN SPOON RACE

Motivation

TOP 4 BATTLE

Wins to Finals

15.2

Points For / G

27.1

30.1

Points Against / G

22.4

1,514m

Run Metres / G

1,662m

2.6

Tries / G

4.6

75.0%

Completion %

76.3%

4.4

Penalties Conceded / G

4.6

3.8

Six Agains / G

4.4

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Dragons

Metric

Dolphins

2-16-0#17

Season Record

#511-7-0

1-7-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games5-3-0 (A)

14.8Home · #17

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #627.2

36.2Home · #17

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #217.1

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Dragons

Metric

Dolphins

7-10-0 (41%)

2026 Season — All

11-7-0 (61%)

1-6-0 (14%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

6-2-0 (75%)

6-4-0 (60%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

5-5-0 (50%)

Current Streak

19-21-1 (48%)

2025-26 — All

23-19-0 (55%)

7-11-1 (39%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

10-10-0 (50%)

12-10-0 (55%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

13-9-0 (59%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Dragons

Metric

Dolphins

4-12-0 (25%)

2026 Season — All

7-10-0 (41%)

3-3-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

2-6-0 (25%)

1-9-0 (10%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

5-4-0 (56%)

Current Streak

19-21-0 (48%)

2025-26 — All

21-20-0 (51%)

9-9-0 (50%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

8-12-0 (40%)

10-12-0 (45%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

13-8-0 (62%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Dragons

Metric

Dolphins

8.6

1H Avg For

10.7

15.4

1H Avg Against

12.0

-6.9

1H Net

-1.3

33%

1H Win → Match Win

88%

6.0

2H Avg For

18.9

16.6

2H Avg Against

8.3

-10.6

2H Net

+10.6

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Dragons

Metric

Dolphins

114.7#16 Δ -4.1

Squad PCS

#2 Δ +0.0182.3

17.3#17 Δ -0.5

Spine PCS

#8 Δ +0.043.2

33.9#11 Δ -2.3

Forwards PCS

#16 Δ +0.025.5

48.3#16 Δ -2.0

Backs PCS

#1 Δ +0.097.7

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Dragons

Metric

Dolphins

5/18 (28%)

Scored first try — All games

4/18 (22%)

2/8 (25%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

2/8 (25%)

9/18 (50%)

Conceded first try — All games

12/18 (67%)

5/8 (62%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

5/8 (62%)

3 (H:0 A:3)

Scored first via penalty goal

1 (H:0 A:1)

1 (H:1 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

1 (H:1 A:0)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

1 (H:1 A:0)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

5 (H:2 A:3)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

3 (H:1 A:2)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

4 (H:3 A:1)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

4 (H:4 A:0)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

4 (H:2 A:2)

5 (H:2 A:3)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

4 (H:1 A:3)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Dragons

Metric

Dolphins

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Dragons

Metric

Dolphins

0.568

Overall CI

0.462

0.554

Defensive CI

0.492

14.6

Margin SD

25.2

0.6

Disruption

0.3

88%

Best-17 %

94%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Dragons — 88% Best 17 (DS 0.6) — Squad avg ±/G: -12.2

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Clinton Gutherson	Fullback	15	-10.7
2	Setu Tu	Wing	16	-14.2
3	Mathew Feagai	Centre	13	-11.9
4	Valentine Holmes	Centre	18	-14.8
5	Tyrell Sloan	Wing	9	-15.1
6	Daniel Atkinson	Five-Eighth	17	-11.9
7	Kyle Flanagan	Halfback	15	-9.7
8	Jnr Pasifiki Tonga	Prop	—	—
9	Damien Cook	Hooker	18	-11.3
10	Toby Couchman	Prop	17	-10.3
11	Dylan Egan	Second Row	10	-10.6
12	Hamish Stewart	Second Row	18	-13.5
13	Ryan Couchman	Lock	14	-12.8
14	Jacob Liddle	Interchange	10	-3.0
15	Luciano Leilua	Interchange	14	-7.9
16	Josh Kerr	Interchange	16	-7.6
17	Jacob Halangahu	Interchange	—	—

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026.

Named Squads

11Dolphins — 94% Best 17 (DS 0.3) — Squad avg ±/G: +4.4

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow	Fullback	13	+7.5
2	Jamayne Isaako	Wing	18	+4.7
3	Jack Bostock	Centre	7	+20.3
4	Herbie Farnworth	Centre	17	+4.5
5	Selwyn Cobbo	Wing	13	+6.5
6	Kodi Nikorima	Five-Eighth	14	+2.7
7	Bradley Schneider	Halfback	13	+2.1
8	Thomas Flegler	Prop	13	-4.8
9	Jeremy Marshall-King	Hooker	10	+8.7
10	Francis Molo	Prop	14	-4.9
11	Connelly Lemuelu	Second Row	18	+4.3
12	Kulikefu Finefeuiaki	Second Row	17	+2.9
13	Morgan Knowles	Lock	17	+2.6
14	Kurt Donoghoe	Interchange	11	+4.5
15	Max Plath	Interchange	13	+8.8
16	Tom Gilbert	Interchange	17	+2.6
17	Felise Kaufusi	Interchange	16	+2.2

Dragons — Recent Form

12Dragons — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R21	Titans	H	18-38	L	-20	—	—	—	—
2026 R20	Warriors	A	12-20	L	-8	+16.5	W	46.5	U
2026 R18	Wests Tigers	H	24-10	W	+14	+3.5	W	47.5	U
2026 R17	Raiders	A	16-24	L	-8	+9.5	W	50.5	U
2026 R16	Knights	A	20-22	L	-2	+12.5	W	49.0	U

Dolphins — Recent Form

13Dolphins — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R20	Cowboys	H	36-16	W	+20	-3.5	W	50.0	O
2026 R19	Sharks	H	0-66	L	-66	-1.5	L	49.5	O
2026 R18	Knights	A	12-13	L	-1	-1.5	L	49.0	U
2026 R17	Warriors	H	26-24	W	+2	-7.5	L	50.5	U
2026 R16	Wests Tigers	A	36-22	W	+14	-5.5	W	51.5	O

Dragons — Try Scoring

14Dragons — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
V.Holmes	Centre	8	1	—	1	3	2	2	4 / 4
S.Tu	Wing	8	1	1	1	2	2	3	4 / 4
T.Sloan	Wing	7	3	—	4	1	1	1	3 / 4
M.Feagai	Centre	3	—	1	0	1	1	1	1 / 2
H.Stewart	Second Row	3	—	—	0	2	1	0	1 / 2
C.Tuipulotu	Wing	3	—	—	1	0	1	1	2 / 1
J.Liddle	Interchange	2	—	—	0	1	0	1	2 / 0
L.Leilua	Interchange	2	—	—	1	1	0	0	1 / 1
M.Suli	Interchange	2	—	—	0	0	1	1	1 / 1
C.Gutherson	Fullback	2	—	—	1	1	0	0	1 / 1

Dolphins — Try Scoring

15Dolphins — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
J.Isaako	Wing	17	—	2	1	9	5	2	9 / 8
S.Cobbo	Centre	10	3	2	3	2	1	4	6 / 4
H.Farnworth	Centre	8	—	1	3	2	2	1	5 / 3
H.Tabuai-Fidow	Fullback	8	—	2	0	1	3	4	5 / 3
J.Averillo	Centre	6	1	—	2	0	1	3	3 / 3
J.Bostock	Centre	4	—	—	0	0	1	3	3 / 1
C.Lemuelu	Second Row	4	—	2	0	1	1	2	2 / 2
T.Naufahu	Wing	3	—	1	1	0	1	1	1 / 2
K.Finefeuiaki	Second Row	3	—	1	0	1	1	1	3 / 0
K.Nikorima	Five-Eighth	3	—	—	0	0	1	2	2 / 1

SavvyPlays Tips — Strong

16The Call

Dolphins by 20

Strong · WOODEN SPOON RACE v TOP 4 BATTLE

Win

Dolphins -13.5

predicted Dragons margin -20 vs line +13.5

ATS

—

held for model validation

Over / Under

Dolphins Backs

HIGH · 2.78/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Dragons (vs Dolphins defence)
1	Backs	1.61	2.06	1.83 HIGH
2	Spine	0.33	0.83	0.58 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.22	0.78	0.50 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.44	0.33	0.39 LOW
Attacking Dolphins (vs Dragons defence)
1	Backs	2.67	2.89	2.78 HIGH
2	Spine	1.06	1.39	1.22 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.50	0.72	0.61 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.39	0.22	0.31 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Dolphins Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.78/game (Dolphins backs score 2.67/game; Dragons concede to the backs at 2.89/game).

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.