Panthers v Raiders
SavvyPlays · Saturday 01 August 2026 · Glen Willow Oval · 17:30 AEST
Visual Comparison
01Key Metrics Side-by-Side
Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).
Headline averages from every completed match this season (Panthers n=18, Raiders n=19). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).
Team Records
02Season Records & Scoring
Against the Spread
03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)
Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Over / Under
04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)
Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Halves Breakdown
05How Each Team Builds the Game
1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.
Player Contribution Scores
06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs
PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.
Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.
Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).
First Scoring Play
07Who Strikes First
Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.
Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.
Current Streaks
08Active Streaks
Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).
Consistency / Disruption
09Volatility & Squad Health
Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.
Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.
CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.
Named Squads
10Panthers — 82% Best 17 (DS 4.0) — Squad avg ±/G: +13.4
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaxen Edgar | Fullback | — | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | Wing | 17 | +15.5 |
| 3 | Paul Alamoti | Centre | 18 | +15.9 |
| 4 | Casey McLean | Centre | 13 | +19.4 |
| 5 | Brian To'o | Wing | 16 | +17.7 |
| 6 | Jack Cogger | Five-Eighth | 13 | +6.8 |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | Halfback | 15 | +16.6 |
| 8 | Moses Leota | Prop | 18 | +8.5 |
| 9 | Freddy Lussick | Hooker | 15 | +9.1 |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | Prop | 18 | +10.8 |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | Second Row | 17 | +13.7 |
| 12 | Liam Martin | Second Row | 10 | +13.1 |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | Lock | 15 | +13.8 |
| 14 | Billy Scott | Interchange | — | — |
| 15 | Scott Sorensen | Interchange | 18 | +7.9 |
| 16 | Liam Henry | Interchange | 9 | +12.0 |
| 17 | Billy Phillips | Interchange | 15 | +5.4 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026.
Named Squads
11Raiders — 94% Best 17 (DS 1.6) — Squad avg ±/G: -0.2
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | Fullback | 19 | -1.8 |
| 2 | Jed Stuart | Wing | 10 | +1.6 |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | Centre | 13 | +3.0 |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | Centre | 14 | +1.1 |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | Wing | 14 | -1.0 |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | Five-Eighth | 16 | -3.6 |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | Halfback | 19 | -1.4 |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | Prop | 19 | -2.0 |
| 9 | Owen Pattie | Hooker | 10 | +5.4 |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | Prop | 19 | -2.2 |
| 11 | Zac Hosking | Second Row | 17 | +0.4 |
| 12 | Ata Mariota | Second Row | 18 | -2.0 |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | Lock | 17 | -0.7 |
| 14 | Tom Starling | Interchange | 19 | -2.6 |
| 15 | Matty Nicholson | Interchange | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | Interchange | 8 | -0.2 |
| 17 | Daine Laurie | Interchange | 11 | +1.3 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026.
Panthers — Recent Form
12Panthers — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R21 | Eels | A | 24-18 | W | +6 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 R20 | Broncos | H | 12-14 | L | -2 | -12.5 | L | 44.5 | U |
| 2026 R18 | Rabbitohs | H | 36-14 | W | +22 | -5.5 | W | 44.5 | O |
| 2026 R17 | Cowboys | A | 12-26 | L | -14 | -13.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 2026 R16 | Titans | A | 18-19 | L | -1 | -12.5 | L | 48.5 | U |
Raiders — Recent Form
13Raiders — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R21 | Wests Tigers | H | 56-10 | W | +46 | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 R20 | Rabbitohs | H | 34-24 | W | +10 | -0.5 | W | 49.5 | O |
| 2026 R19 | Bulldogs | A | 40-16 | W | +24 | +3.5 | W | 42.5 | O |
| 2026 R17 | Dragons | H | 24-16 | W | +8 | -9.5 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 2026 R16 | Storm | A | 20-42 | L | -22 | +8.5 | L | 50.5 | O |
Panthers — Try Scoring
14Panthers — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.Jenkins | Wing | 26 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 11 / 15 |
| B.To'o | Wing | 11 | 1 | — | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 6 / 5 |
| D.Edwards | Fullback | 10 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 / 8 |
| C.McLean | Centre | 7 | 2 | — | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 / 3 |
| B.Talagi | Five-Eighth | 5 | 1 | — | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 / 3 |
| N.Cleary | Halfback | 5 | — | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 / 3 |
| P.Alamoti | Centre | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 1 |
| F.Lussick | Hooker | 4 | — | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 / 3 |
| L.Martin | Second Row | 3 | 2 | — | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 / 2 |
| I.Tago | Interchange | 3 | — | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 / 2 |
Raiders — Try Scoring
15Raiders — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Weekes | Fullback | 11 | 1 | — | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 6 / 5 |
| X.Savage | Wing | 9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 / 4 |
| S.Tamale | Interchange | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 / 3 |
| S.Sasagi | Centre | 5 | 3 | — | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 / 4 |
| H.Young | Second Row | 5 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 / 2 |
| M.Timoko | Centre | 5 | — | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 / 3 |
| E.Strange | Five-Eighth | 5 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 / 2 |
| J.Stuart | Wing | 4 | 2 | — | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 / 0 |
| S.Kris | Interchange | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 1 |
| N.Martin | Second Row | 4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 / 3 |
SavvyPlays Tips — Strong
16The Call
| Rank | Group | Score /G | Opp Concede /G | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attacking Panthers (vs Raiders defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 2.67 | 2.11 | 2.39 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.39 | 1.26 | 1.33 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.56 | 0.79 | 0.67 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.56 | 0.21 | 0.38 LOW |
| Attacking Raiders (vs Panthers defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.21 | 1.22 | 1.22 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 1.21 | 0.50 | 0.86 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.79 | 0.61 | 0.70 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.79 | 0.17 | 0.48 LOW |
Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.
Panthers Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.39/game (Panthers backs score 2.67/game; Raiders concede to the backs at 2.11/game).
ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.
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