Round 22 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Titans v Warriors

SavvyPlays · Saturday 01 August 2026 · Cbus Super Stadium · 15:00 AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Titans n=18, Warriors n=18). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Titans

Metric

Warriors

PLAYING FOR PRIDE

Motivation

TOP 4 BATTLE

Wins to Finals

20.7

Points For / G

27.6

25.5

Points Against / G

17.0

1,545m

Run Metres / G

1,643m

3.6

Tries / G

4.8

75.2%

Completion %

80.1%

3.8

Penalties Conceded / G

4.4

3.7

Six Agains / G

4.3

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Titans

Metric

Warriors

6-12-0#14

Season Record

#312-6-0

3-4-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games5-4-0 (A)

18.1Home · #16

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #727.1

26.3Home · #13

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #317.6

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Titans

Metric

Warriors

10-7-0 (59%)

2026 Season — All

10-7-0 (59%)

3-4-0 (43%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

6-2-0 (75%)

7-3-0 (70%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

4-5-0 (44%)

Current Streak

19-22-0 (46%)

2025-26 — All

22-18-2 (55%)

8-11-0 (42%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

12-7-1 (63%)

11-11-0 (50%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

10-11-1 (48%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Titans

Metric

Warriors

5-11-0 (31%)

2026 Season — All

5-11-0 (31%)

1-5-0 (17%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

2-5-0 (29%)

4-6-0 (40%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

3-6-0 (33%)

Current Streak

18-22-0 (45%)

2025-26 — All

16-25-0 (39%)

6-12-0 (33%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

9-10-0 (47%)

12-10-0 (55%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

7-15-0 (32%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Titans

Metric

Warriors

7.1

1H Avg For

14.1

12.6

1H Avg Against

9.7

-5.4

1H Net

+4.4

33%

1H Win → Match Win

100%

11.9

2H Avg For

15.4

12.9

2H Avg Against

7.7

-1.0

2H Net

+7.7

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Titans

Metric

Warriors

142.6#13 Δ +7.0

Squad PCS

#7 Δ -8.6159.5

40.8#10 Δ +0.9

Spine PCS

#12 Δ -5.739.5

33.7#12 Δ +3.9

Forwards PCS

#5 Δ -2.937.4

55.3#13 Δ +2.6

Backs PCS

#7 Δ -0.864.5

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Titans

Metric

Warriors

3/18 (17%)

Scored first try — All games

9/18 (50%)

1/7 (14%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

2/9 (22%)

14/18 (78%)

Conceded first try — All games

7/18 (39%)

6/7 (86%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

6/9 (67%)

1 (H:0 A:1)

Scored first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

2 (H:1 A:1)

1 (H:1 A:0)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

1 (H:1 A:0)

2 (H:0 A:2)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

1 (H:0 A:1)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

7 (H:6 A:1)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

3 (H:2 A:1)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

4 (H:1 A:3)

3 (H:2 A:1)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

8 (H:2 A:6)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

3 (H:0 A:3)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Titans

Metric

Warriors

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Titans

Metric

Warriors

0.558

Overall CI

0.590

0.602

Defensive CI

0.649

17.9

Margin SD

16.3

0.6

Disruption

1.3

88%

Best-17 %

76%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Titans — 88% Best 17 (DS 0.6) — Squad avg ±/G: -4.0

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Keano Kini	Fullback	18	-5.1
2	Dean Ieremia	Wing	3	+3.3
3	Jojo Fifita	Centre	16	-4.8
4	AJ Brimson	Centre	16	-5.8
5	Phillip Sami	Wing	18	-4.8
6	Jayden Campbell	Five-Eighth	16	-2.6
7	Zane Harrison	Halfback	10	-4.0
8	Moeaki Fotuaika	Prop	18	-6.9
9	Oliver Pascoe	Hooker	10	-4.0
10	Tino Fa'asuamaleaui	Prop	15	-4.3
11	Arama Hau	Second Row	18	-4.8
12	Beau Fermor	Second Row	18	-5.1
13	Chris Randall	Lock	15	-2.7
14	Kurtis Morrin	Interchange	16	+0.1
15	Josh Patston	Interchange	—	—
16	Klese Haas	Interchange	17	-2.1
17	Cooper Bai	Interchange	17	-1.2

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026.

Named Squads

11Warriors — 76% Best 17 (DS 1.3) — Squad avg ±/G: +8.3

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad	Fullback	9	+5.1
2	Dallin Watene-Zelezniak	Wing	17	+9.3
3	Ali Leiataua	Centre	14	+13.3
4	Adam Pompey	Centre	13	+7.8
5	Alofiana Khan-Pereira	Wing	10	+7.2
6	Chanel Harris-Tavita	Five-Eighth	15	+10.8
7	Te Maire Martin	Halfback	—	—
8	James Fisher-Harris	Prop	15	+6.4
9	Wayde Egan	Hooker	18	+9.2
10	Mitchell Barnett	Prop	9	+4.0
11	Kurt Capewell	Second Row	8	+11.2
12	Jacob Laban	Second Row	17	+7.8
13	Erin Clark	Lock	18	+7.1
14	Sam Healey	Interchange	15	+2.8
15	Tanner Stowers-Smith	Interchange	13	+5.1
16	Demitric Vaimauga	Interchange	17	+7.5
17	Leka Halasima	Interchange	14	+7.0

Titans — Recent Form

12Titans — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R21	Dragons	A	38-18	W	+20	—	—	—	—
2026 R20	Sea Eagles	H	38-32	W	+6	+4.5	W	45.5	O
2026 R19	Storm	A	18-22	L	-4	+9.5	W	45.5	U
2026 R17	Bulldogs	H	12-30	L	-18	-1.5	L	44.5	U
2026 R16	Panthers	H	19-18	W	+1	+12.5	W	48.5	U

Warriors — Recent Form

13Warriors — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R21	Bulldogs	A	6-18	L	-12	—	—	—	—
2026 R20	Dragons	H	20-12	W	+8	-16.5	L	46.5	U
2026 R19	Wests Tigers	A	32-6	W	+26	-8.5	W	45.5	U
2026 R17	Dolphins	A	24-26	L	-2	+7.5	W	50.5	U
2026 R16	Cowboys	H	38-20	W	+18	-7.5	W	50.5	O

Titans — Try Scoring

14Titans — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
P.Sami	Wing	12	—	1	2	2	2	6	6 / 6
J.Campbell	Five-Eighth	9	—	—	1	2	4	2	0 / 9
J.Fifita	Centre	7	1	1	0	3	1	3	5 / 2
A.Hau	Second Row	6	1	1	1	1	1	3	3 / 3
K.Morrin	Interchange	6	—	1	0	3	2	1	2 / 4
O.Pascoe	Hooker	4	1	—	2	1	1	0	3 / 1
S.Faeamani	Interchange	4	—	—	1	0	1	2	0 / 4
A.Brimson	Centre	3	—	1	1	1	0	1	1 / 2
K.Kini	Fullback	3	—	2	0	0	0	3	0 / 3
B.Fermor	Second Row	2	—	—	0	0	2	0	1 / 1

Warriors — Try Scoring

15Warriors — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
D.Watene-Zelezniak	Wing	17	2	5	4	6	4	3	8 / 9
A.Khan-Pereira	Wing	12	2	—	5	3	2	2	5 / 7
C.Nicoll-Klokstad	Interchange	8	2	1	3	1	1	3	7 / 1
L.Halasima	Interchange	5	—	—	1	1	2	1	3 / 2
A.Leiataua	Centre	4	1	—	2	0	2	0	2 / 2
J.Ford	Prop	4	—	—	0	1	1	2	1 / 3
E.Clark	Lock	4	—	1	1	1	1	1	2 / 2
T.Martin	Halfback	4	—	1	1	1	2	0	2 / 2
C.Harris-Tavita	Five-Eighth	4	—	1	0	2	0	2	3 / 1
T.Boyd	Halfback	3	1	—	1	0	1	1	2 / 1

SavvyPlays Tips — Lean

16The Call

Warriors by 7

Lean · PLAYING FOR PRIDE v TOP 4 BATTLE

Win

Warriors -4.5

predicted Titans margin -7 vs line +4.5

ATS

—

held for model validation

Over / Under

Warriors Backs

HIGH · 2.31/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Titans (vs Warriors defence)
1	Backs	1.39	1.50	1.44 HIGH
2	Spine	0.89	0.78	0.83 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.61	0.61	0.61 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.72	0.11	0.42 LOW
Attacking Warriors (vs Titans defence)
1	Backs	2.11	2.50	2.31 HIGH
2	Spine	0.89	1.17	1.03 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.83	0.72	0.78 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.94	0.17	0.56 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Warriors Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.31/game (Warriors backs score 2.11/game; Titans concede to the backs at 2.50/game).

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.