Dolphins v Broncos
SavvyPlays · Saturday 08 August 2026 · Suncorp Stadium · 5:30pm AEST
Visual Comparison
01Key Metrics Side-by-Side
Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).
Headline averages from every completed match this season (Dolphins n=19, Broncos n=19). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).
Team Records
02Season Records & Scoring
Against the Spread
03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)
Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Over / Under
04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)
Within each block Home + Away equals All.
Halves Breakdown
05How Each Team Builds the Game
1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.
Player Contribution Scores
06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs
PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.
Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.
Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).
First Scoring Play
07Who Strikes First
Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.
Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.
Current Streaks
08Active Streaks
Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).
Consistency / Disruption
09Volatility & Squad Health
Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.
Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.
CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.
Named Squads
10Dolphins — 100% Best 17 (DS 0.3) — Squad avg ±/G: +4.6
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | Fullback | 14 | +7.4 |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | Wing | 19 | +4.7 |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | Centre | 8 | +18.5 |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | Centre | 18 | +4.6 |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | Wing | 14 | +6.5 |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | Five-Eighth | 15 | +2.9 |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | Halfback | 14 | +7.6 |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | Prop | 14 | -4.7 |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | Hooker | 11 | +7.4 |
| 10 | Francis Molo | Prop | 15 | -5.2 |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | Second Row | 19 | +4.4 |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | Second Row | 18 | +3.1 |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | Lock | 18 | +2.2 |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | Interchange | 12 | +5.1 |
| 15 | Max Plath | Interchange | 14 | +8.9 |
| 16 | Tom Gilbert | Interchange | 18 | +3.4 |
| 17 | Felise Kaufusi | Interchange | 16 | +2.2 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Long-term (1): Daniel Saifiti (19wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Named Squads
11Broncos — 88% Best 17 (DS 5.5) — Squad avg ±/G: -6.9
| # | Player | Position | GP | ±/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | Fullback | 14 | -7.9 |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | Wing | 17 | -8.7 |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | Centre | 16 | -3.5 |
| 4 | Deine Mariner | Centre | 13 | -2.8 |
| 5 | Grant Anderson | Wing | 7 | -11.6 |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | Five-Eighth | 17 | -4.7 |
| 7 | Thomas Duffy | Halfback | 6 | -10.7 |
| 8 | Xavier Willison | Prop | 19 | -5.5 |
| 9 | Billy Walters | Hooker | 2 | +0.0 |
| 10 | Payne Haas | Prop | 12 | -3.9 |
| 11 | Jaiyden Hunt | Second Row | 4 | -14.5 |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | Second Row | 17 | -8.0 |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | Lock | 13 | -7.8 |
| 14 | Ben Hunt | Interchange | 13 | -7.0 |
| 15 | Va'a Semu | Interchange | 9 | -5.3 |
| 16 | Ben Talty | Interchange | 19 | -5.1 |
| 17 | Gehamat Shibasaki | Interchange | 14 | -6.9 |
±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Adam Reynolds (new this round), Brendan Piakura (3wk absent). Long-term (1): Corey Jensen (16wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.
Dolphins — Recent Form
12Dolphins — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R22 | Dragons | A | 28-22 | W | +6 | -15.5 | L | 50.5 | U |
| 2026 R20 | Cowboys | H | 36-16 | W | +20 | -3.5 | W | 50.0 | O |
| 2026 R19 | Sharks | H | 0-66 | L | -66 | -1.5 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 2026 R18 | Knights | A | 12-13 | L | -1 | -1.5 | L | 49.0 | U |
| 2026 R17 | Warriors | H | 26-24 | W | +2 | -7.5 | L | 50.5 | U |
Broncos — Recent Form
13Broncos — Last 5 Games
| Round | Opponent | H/A | Score | Res | Margin | Line | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 R22 | Knights | H | 6-30 | L | -24 | -5.5 | L | 45.5 | U |
| 2026 R21 | Cowboys | A | 10-18 | L | -8 | -4.5 | L | 47.5 | U |
| 2026 R20 | Panthers | A | 14-12 | W | +2 | +12.5 | W | 44.5 | U |
| 2026 R18 | Sharks | H | 16-28 | L | -12 | +6.5 | L | 48.5 | U |
| 2026 R17 | Roosters | H | 18-24 | L | -6 | +7.5 | W | 48.5 | U |
Dolphins — Try Scoring
14Dolphins — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.Isaako | Wing | 17 | — | 2 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 9 / 8 |
| S.Cobbo | Wing | 12 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 / 6 |
| H.Tabuai-Fidow | Fullback | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 / 4 |
| H.Farnworth | Centre | 8 | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 / 3 |
| J.Averillo | Centre | 6 | 1 | — | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 / 3 |
| C.Lemuelu | Second Row | 4 | — | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 / 2 |
| J.Bostock | Centre | 4 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 / 1 |
| K.Nikorima | Five-Eighth | 3 | — | — | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 / 1 |
| T.Naufahu | Wing | 3 | — | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 / 2 |
| K.Finefeuiaki | Second Row | 3 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 / 0 |
Broncos — Try Scoring
15Broncos — Try Scorers (2026)
| Player | Pos | T | 1st | Last | 1st 20m | 2nd 20m | 3rd 20m | 4th 20m | H / A |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.Staggs | Centre | 8 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 / 2 |
| R.Walsh | Fullback | 6 | 2 | — | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 / 2 |
| J.Karapani | Wing | 6 | — | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 / 3 |
| X.Willison | Second Row | 5 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 / 3 |
| J.Arthars | Interchange | 5 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 4 / 1 |
| J.Riki | Second Row | 4 | 1 | — | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 / 4 |
| E.Mam | Five-Eighth | 4 | — | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 / 2 |
| G.Shibasaki | Interchange | 3 | 1 | — | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 / 1 |
| D.Mariner | Centre | 3 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 / 1 |
| A.Reynolds | Halfback | 3 | — | — | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 / 2 |
SavvyPlays Tips — Strong
16The Call
| Rank | Group | Score /G | Opp Concede /G | Combined |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Attacking Dolphins (vs Broncos defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 2.63 | 2.11 | 2.37 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 0.95 | 1.47 | 1.21 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.53 | 0.42 | 0.47 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.53 | 0.37 | 0.45 LOW |
| Attacking Broncos (vs Dolphins defence) | ||||
| 1 | Backs | 1.05 | 2.05 | 1.55 HIGH |
| 2 | Spine | 0.84 | 0.84 | 0.84 MODERATE |
| 3 | Forwards | 0.68 | 0.79 | 0.74 MODERATE |
| 4 | Interchange | 0.58 | 0.32 | 0.45 LOW |
Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.
Dolphins Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.37/game (Dolphins backs score 2.63/game; Broncos concede to the backs at 2.11/game).
The Dolphins are chasing the top four; the Broncos are eliminated and lose their halfback again.
ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.
Data & Methodology
Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.
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