Round 23 Preview — 2026 NRL SeasonNRL Analytics

Rabbitohs v Eels

SavvyPlays · Saturday 08 August 2026 · Allianz Stadium · 7:35pm AEST

Visual Comparison

01Key Metrics Side-by-Side

Motivation is the finals-race tier each side enters the round on; Wins to Finals is how many of their remaining games they need to reach the top eight ("-" already there, "x" out of reach).

Headline averages from every completed match this season (Rabbitohs n=19, Eels n=19). Bars diverge from centre — longer bar wins on the metric (green where lower is the goal, like points conceded or penalties).

Rabbitohs

Metric

Eels

MUST-WIN

Motivation

PLAYING FOR PRIDE

Wins to Finals

27.7

Points For / G

19.2

24.4

Points Against / G

28.6

1,568m

Run Metres / G

1,444m

5.0

Tries / G

3.5

78.3%

Completion %

74.3%

5.0

Penalties Conceded / G

4.2

3.5

Six Agains / G

4.4

Team Records

02Season Records & Scoring

Rabbitohs

Metric

Eels

10-9-0#8

Season Record

#137-12-0

7-2-0 (H)Home games

Home / Away Record

Away games3-6-0 (A)

29.3Home · #3

Avg Points For (Home / Away)

Away · #1419.7

20.9Home · #6

Avg Points Against (Home / Away)

Away · #1730.9

Against the Spread

03ATS Performance (W-L-P | % = Cover Rate)

Rabbitohs

Metric

Eels

9-10-0 (47%)

2026 Season — All

9-10-0 (47%)

6-3-0 (67%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

4-5-0 (44%)

3-7-0 (30%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

5-5-0 (50%)

Current Streak

23-20-0 (53%)

2025-26 — All

20-23-0 (47%)

15-6-0 (71%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

9-12-0 (43%)

8-14-0 (36%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

11-11-0 (50%)

Streak format: W3 = three covers in a row, L2 = two ATS losses. Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Over / Under

04O/U Performance (O-U-P | % = Over Rate)

Rabbitohs

Metric

Eels

10-9-0 (53%)

2026 Season — All

6-13-0 (32%)

5-4-0 (56%)

2026 Season — Home (H) / Away (A)

4-5-0 (44%)

5-5-0 (50%)

2026 Season — Away (H) / Home (A)

2-8-0 (20%)

Current Streak

16-27-0 (37%)

2025-26 — All

13-30-0 (30%)

8-13-0 (38%)

2025-26 — Home (H) / Away (A)

8-13-0 (38%)

8-14-0 (36%)

2025-26 — Away (H) / Home (A)

5-17-0 (23%)

Within each block Home + Away equals All.

Halves Breakdown

05How Each Team Builds the Game

1H = first half, 2H = second half. 1H/2H averages across the full 2026 season. "1H win → match win" is how often leading at half-time converts into the win.

Rabbitohs

Metric

Eels

13.4

1H Avg For

9.1

12.8

1H Avg Against

12.4

+0.6

1H Net

-3.3

100%

1H Win → Match Win

100%

16.3

2H Avg For

11.0

10.3

2H Avg Against

18.4

+6.0

2H Net

-7.4

Player Contribution Scores

06Spine vs Spine, Forwards vs Forwards, Backs vs Backs

PCS (Player Contribution Score) is a correlation-informed rating built from play-by-play stats — run metres, line breaks, tackle breaks, missed tackles and so on. Each stat is weighted by how strongly it correlates with winning margin across 1,000+ matches. Aggregated to position group over a 15-game rolling window.

Why position groups matter: the spine (FB, halves, hooker) controls structure, the forwards set the ruck and tempo, the backs finish chances. A team can be middling overall but elite at one group — and that often shows up as a directional edge in the result.

Rabbitohs

Metric

Eels

157.3#9 Δ -5.0

Squad PCS

#16 Δ -1.3110.8

40.1#11 Δ +0.1

Spine PCS

#15 Δ +2.630.7

34.2#10 Δ -3.5

Forwards PCS

#17 Δ -2.120.9

76.7#3 Δ -1.2

Backs PCS

#16 Δ -2.946.7

Sub shows current league rank. Δ = change vs last round (noisy week-to-week — treat the rank as the headline).

First Scoring Play

07Who Strikes First

Strictly the very first scoring play of each match — try, penalty goal, or (rarely) field goal. Teams that open the scoring tend to lead at half-time about 65% of the time and win about 60% — so the opening play matters. Penalty-goal openings are shown as raw counts because most games never open with a PG; the position-group breakdown only fires when the first play was a try.

Rabbitohs

Metric

Eels

11/19 (58%)

Scored first try — All games

8/19 (42%)

6/9 (67%)

Scored first try — Home / Away

3/9 (33%)

6/19 (32%)

Conceded first try — All games

9/19 (47%)

1/9 (11%)

Conceded first try — Home / Away

6/9 (67%)

1 (H:1 A:0)

Scored first via penalty goal

0 (H:0 A:0)

1 (H:1 A:0)

Conceded first via penalty goal

2 (H:2 A:0)

2 (H:1 A:1)

First try scored by Spine (All games)

2 (H:2 A:0)

1 (H:0 A:1)

First try scored by Forwards (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

8 (H:5 A:3)

First try scored by Backs (All games)

6 (H:3 A:3)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try scored by Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

3 (H:0 A:3)

First try conceded to Spine (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

First try conceded to Forwards (All games)

5 (H:1 A:4)

1 (H:0 A:1)

First try conceded to Backs (All games)

2 (H:1 A:1)

0 (H:0 A:0)

First try conceded to Interchange (All games)

0 (H:0 A:0)

Position groups: Spine = FB/halves/hooker. Forwards = prop/lock/second row. Backs = centre/wing. Interchange = bench.

Current Streaks

08Active Streaks

Rabbitohs

Metric

Eels

Win / Loss — 2026

ATS — 2026

Over / Under — 2026

1st Half — 2026

2nd Half — 2026

Win / Loss — Home / Away

ATS — Home / Away

Over / Under — Home / Away

Includes previous season(s) where applicable. D = Draw, P = Push (ATS/O/U).

Consistency / Disruption

09Volatility & Squad Health

Consistency Index (CI) measures how predictable a team's results are. It's built from the standard deviation of their margin and their points-conceded across the season. Higher CI = tighter range of results, more dependable.

Disruption Score (DS) measures how far the named squad is from each team's best 17 — weighted by position importance (a halfback out hurts more than a bench prop) and by how fresh the absence is. Higher DS = more disrupted, less the side coaches game-plan around.

Rabbitohs

Metric

Eels

0.540

Overall CI

0.534

0.584

Defensive CI

0.547

19.1

Margin SD

18.1

1.0

Disruption

6.1

93%

Best-17 %

80%

New Outs This Round

CI (Consistency Index) measures result predictability from 0 to 1 — higher = more consistent. Defensive CI isolates defensive performance. Margin SD measures the spread of winning/losing margins — lower = more predictable outcomes. Teams with high CI and low Margin SD are the safest to tip; teams with low CI and high Margin SD are volatile and produce the most upsets.

Named Squads

10Rabbitohs — 93% Best 17 (DS 1.0) — Squad avg ±/G: +2.2

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Matthew Dufty	Fullback	9	+2.2
2	Alex Johnston	Wing	16	+6.5
3	Tallis Duncan	Centre	17	+4.5
4	Jack Wighton	Centre	13	+1.8
5	Campbell Graham	Wing	14	+2.1
6	Cody Walker	Five-Eighth	18	+3.9
7	Ashton Ward	Halfback	12	+0.3
8	Tevita Tatola	Prop	19	+1.2
9	Brandon Smith	Hooker	11	+1.1
10	Keaon Koloamatangi	Prop	19	+2.1
11	David Fifita	Second Row	11	+1.3
12	Adam Elliott	Second Row	4	-4.0
13	Cameron Murray	Lock	14	+5.7
14	Jye Gray	Interchange	14	+1.6
15	Lachlan Hubner	Interchange	18	+4.7
16	Sean Keppie	Interchange	12	-1.0
17	Jamie Humphreys	Interchange	14	+3.6

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Peter Mamouzelos (4wk absent). Long-term (2): Latrell Mitchell (12wk), Jai Arrow (8wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Named Squads

11Eels — 80% Best 17 (DS 6.1) — Squad avg ±/G: -8.2

#	Player	Position	GP	±/G
1	Isaiah Iongi	Fullback	12	-7.6
2	Brian Kelly	Wing	17	-11.6
3	Will Penisini	Centre	6	-18.0
4	Jordan Samrani	Centre	11	-5.1
5	Josh Addo-Carr	Wing	18	-7.3
6	Ronald Volkman	Five-Eighth	14	-7.8
7	Mitchell Moses	Halfback	14	-11.9
8	Sam Tuivaiti	Prop	13	-2.8
9	Tallyn Da Silva	Hooker	19	-4.8
10	Luca Moretti	Prop	13	-4.4
11	Jack Williams	Second Row	19	-9.3
12	Kitione Kautoga	Second Row	14	-9.4
13	Jack De Belin	Lock	16	-6.4
14	Saxon Pryke	Interchange	—	—
15	Junior Paulo	Interchange	12	-8.2
16	Teancum Brown	Interchange	—	—
17	Kelma Tuilagi	Interchange	15	-6.5

±/G (Plus/Minus per Game) measures each player's average impact on the scoreboard while on the field — the team's scoring margin during their minutes, divided by games played. Positive values indicate the team scores more than it concedes with that player on; negative values indicate the opposite. Best 17% reflects how many of the team's optimal starting lineup are named for this match. GP = games played in 2026. Out: Jonah Pezet (new this round), Dylan Walker (new this round), Charlie Guymer (4wk absent). Long-term (2): J'maine Hopgood (19wk), Bailey Simonsson (18wk) — excluded from the Best 17% denominator, carried at reduced weight in DS. Players listed as out are ordered by Disruption Score (DS) — a measure of how difficult each absence is to replace based on positional importance and individual performance.

Rabbitohs — Recent Form

12Rabbitohs — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R22	Sharks	A	16-32	L	-16	+14.5	L	51.5	U
2026 R21	Storm	H	28-26	W	+2	+1.5	W	45.5	O
2026 R20	Raiders	A	24-34	L	-10	+0.5	L	49.5	O
2026 R19	Knights	H	26-24	W	+2	+2.5	W	48.0	O
2026 R18	Panthers	A	14-36	L	-22	+5.5	L	44.5	O

Eels — Recent Form

13Eels — Last 5 Games

Round	Opponent	H/A	Score	Res	Margin	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
2026 R22	Wests Tigers	A	16-13	W	+3	-6.5	L	49.5	U
2026 R21	Panthers	H	18-24	L	-6	+14.5	W	46.5	U
2026 R19	Roosters	A	12-28	L	-16	+10.5	L	48.5	U
2026 R18	Sea Eagles	H	23-14	W	+9	+10.5	W	49.5	U
2026 R17	Rabbitohs	H	12-32	L	-20	+5.5	L	46.0	U

Rabbitohs — Try Scoring

14Rabbitohs — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
A.Johnston	Wing	22	3	4	3	8	5	6	12 / 10
L.Mitchell	Centre	11	1	1	2	2	2	5	8 / 3
C.Graham	Wing	10	3	2	3	2	1	4	4 / 6
T.Duncan	Centre	8	—	2	0	2	3	3	2 / 6
C.Walker	Five-Eighth	7	1	1	1	1	2	3	2 / 5
E.Aitken	Second Row	4	—	—	1	1	1	1	2 / 2
E.Kosi	Wing	3	1	—	1	1	1	0	1 / 2
J.Gray	Interchange	3	1	—	1	1	0	1	2 / 1
D.Fifita	Second Row	3	—	—	0	2	1	0	2 / 1
J.Wighton	Centre	3	—	1	2	0	0	1	3 / 0

Eels — Try Scoring

15Eels — Try Scorers (2026)

Player	Pos	T	1st	Last	1st 20m	2nd 20m	3rd 20m	4th 20m	H / A
T.Da Silva	Hooker	7	—	—	0	3	3	1	4 / 3
J.Addo-Carr	Wing	6	—	1	1	1	2	2	3 / 3
J.Papalii	Interchange	5	—	2	0	1	2	2	2 / 3
I.Iongi	Fullback	5	—	2	0	1	2	2	1 / 4
R.Volkman	Five-Eighth	4	2	—	1	2	1	0	4 / 0
S.Russell	Centre	4	2	—	2	0	0	2	1 / 3
J.Samrani	Centre	4	2	—	1	1	0	2	1 / 3
B.Kelly	Wing	4	1	—	4	0	0	0	1 / 3
K.Tuilagi	Second Row	4	—	—	1	2	1	0	2 / 2
J.Pezet	Halfback	3	1	2	1	0	0	2	2 / 1

SavvyPlays Tips — Strong

16The Call

Rabbitohs by 12

Strong · MUST-WIN v PLAYING FOR PRIDE

Win

Rabbitohs -11.5

predicted Rabbitohs margin +12 vs line -11.5

ATS

Over 45.5

projected 53.1 · edge +7.6

Over / Under

Rabbitohs Backs

HIGH · 2.82/g

Anytime Edge

Rank	Group	Score /G	Opp Concede /G	Combined
Attacking Rabbitohs (vs Eels defence)
1	Backs	3.32	2.32	2.82 HIGH
2	Forwards	0.79	1.00	0.89 MODERATE
3	Spine	0.58	1.16	0.87 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.32	0.37	0.34 LOW
Attacking Eels (vs Rabbitohs defence)
1	Backs	1.26	1.63	1.45 HIGH
2	Spine	1.16	1.26	1.21 MODERATE
3	Forwards	0.47	0.84	0.66 MODERATE
4	Interchange	0.58	0.32	0.45 LOW

Anytime Try Scoring — Matchup Likelihood: each side's position groups ranked by how often they score against how often this opponent concedes.

Rabbitohs Backs are the standout anytime bet — the top combined matchup score in this game at 2.82/game (Rabbitohs backs score 3.32/game; Eels concede to the backs at 2.32/game).

The Rabbitohs need wins to stay in finals contention; the Eels are eliminated and losing another playmaker.

Before you bet

ATS tip is based on SavvyPlays' predicted margin compared against the line at the time of publication. Lines move — always verify the current spread with your bookmaker before placing.

Data & Methodology

Team records sourced from official NRL data. Play-by-play timeline data drives the halves analytics. PCS is a correlation-informed player rating aggregated to position groups (Spine, Forwards, Backs) over a 15-game rolling window. Best-17% reflects the proportion of each team's optimal lineup named for this round. CI/DS combines result-volatility and squad-disruption signals. Closing-line market data via The Odds API.